Who Gets the 2023 Oscar Nominations?
Awards season is underway in Hollywood and beyond, with the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice awards winners announced, we have a good idea which movies, actors, actresses and directors are likely to get nominated for the 95th Academy Awards. The Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24.
Below, we'll go through Oscar predictions for the list of nominees after sifting through some prestigious awards events that happened and award nominations already announced, like the BAFTA nominees and SAG nominations.
Best Picture Predictions
The Best Picture is arguably the most anticipated and trickiest category to make Oscar predictions. The frontrunners for the 2023 Best Picture race are The Fabelmans, Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once, which have been nominated for PGAs, DGAs and SAGs. All three films have already won awards: The Fabelmans and Banshees of Inisherin picked up the awards Golden Globes for Best Drama and Best Musical/Comedy, respectively, while Everything Everywhere All At Once picked up the Critic's Choice Award.
A24's Everything Everywhere All At Once will likely pick up nominations across various categories at this year's Oscars. Predicted nominees from the cast include Jamie Lee Curtis for best supporting actress and Ke Huy Quan for best supporting actor. Moreover, we can go as far as to say that this sci-fi has a good chance of not only being one of the Best Picture contenders to be nominated, but also winning. Why do we say this? Historically, the SAG winners of Ensemble Cast in the past two years, have gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture (Parasite and CODA). It's a nominee in this year's ensemble SAGs, so if it wins, it'll be a solid pick for the Oscar.
Not so fast! We must mention Triangle of Sadness which was also nominated for the ensemble cast SAG. Even though this comedy isn't in the spotlight as much, it could be a dark horse in this year's selection.
The tragicomedy Banshees of Inisherin is another feature film predicted to do well in the 95th edition of the Oscars. Brendan Gleeson is a favourite to get a supporting actor, while Kerry Condon has a good shot for best supporting actress. If the recent wins and nominations for Banshees of Inisherin are anything to go by, this may be a good year for the Irish film.
The rest of the possible nominees have received mixed reviews and are bound to pick up some nominations in various categories. We've grouped them to get a closer look at how they may fare here.
Some possible contenders to receive nominees are two anticipated sequels, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water. The first installations of Avatar and Top Gun received a few nominations in their respective years, so it would not come as a surprise if they get some attention for their sequels in 2023. In the case of Avatar: The Way of Water, it would be a surprise if it isn't at least nominated for Art Direction, Cinematography and Visual Effects, among other categories. Top Gun: Maverick also has the potential to get a handful of mentions at the announcement.
The Polarizing Films
Tár, Babylon, and The Whale have all had mixed reviews and haven't received the widespread appeal as other contenders mentioned here. Critics and Academy members have praised Tár, whereas Babylon and The Whale have both received controversial reviews. We predict that these films will get more attention in the acting categories.
The International Feature Films
This year, we may see a couple of non-English films make the list in the best film race and these are All Quiet on the Western Front (German) and RRR (Indian Telegu). Netflix's All Quiet on the Western Front has recently been gaining traction with 14 BAFTA nominations, while RRR has already won 2 CCAs, as well as one of the Golden Globes for Best Original song. Despite the slimmer chances of Best Picture, we'll certainly be seeing these films as nominees in several categories, like Best Song and Best Foreign Language Picture.
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actress in a Leading Role Predictions
This category will probably have an interesting mix of previous Oscar nominees and newcomers. Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett will likely get nominated as they have received nominations from all major associations, including BAFTA and SAG. The Australian actress Cate Blanchett won at the Golden Globes and Critics's Choice Award (CCA) for her performance as Lydia Tár. Similarly, Michelle Yeoh has received the same nominations and nabbed a Golden Globe. Viola Davis' name has been alongside Cate Blanchett's and Michelle Yeoh's in the list of nominees, but she has yet to win one of the big awards this season.
Other names have been circulating the major awards as nominees for Best Actress. These are Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Margot Robbie (Babylon) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). It can be argued that Michelle Williams would have been better suited in the supporting category along with some of the actresses from Women Talking but this will be determined very soon. Robbie and Deadwyler have good chances of getting mentioned here.
It's a gamble to predict if Andrea Riseborough's performance will indeed go on to receive a nomination for her portrayal of a single mother who quickly squanders her big lottery winnings. Riseborough has received a wave of celebrity support in social media, applauding her for her powerful performance. Despite the lack of a marketing budget for the indie drama 'To Leslie', the buzz in recent weeks, could tip the odds in her favour. It's a long shot but it would be a well-deserved achievement for the actress and depends on the sway of Oscar voters.
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Best Actor in a Leading Role Predictions
It seems it's between three actors whose names have been circulating the awards circuit. These are the 31-year-old actor Austin Butler, Canadian-American Brendan Fraser and Irish Colin Farrell, who would make it their first Oscar nomination. All three have been nominated in practically all major 2023 film awards for Best Actor. Each actor has already taken home an award for their respective roles: Colin Farrell for (Banshees of Inisherin) and Austin Butler's portrayal of Elvis are Golden Globes winners, while Brendan Fraser won the CCA.
The last slots are difficult to determine. Bill Nighy (Living) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) also have a chance at receiving their first nomination, and both have a spot at the BAFTAs. Alternatively, it could be another nomination for Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) or Hugh Jackman (The Son). Between the two, Tom Cruise has received more recognition than Hugh Jackman. Audiences have found The Son disappointing, so his chances seem lower this time. Alternatively, Jeremy Pope should not be underestimated in this category either. He has received several nods and could earn a mention at the Academy Awards.
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Best Director Predictions
There are quite a few filmmakers' names floating around in this category. Several of the potential Best Director nominees are likely also to get the best screenplay nomination since most of the top contenders have either written or co-written the movies.
There is more than one frontrunner for this category. For what would be his ninth Oscar nom in this category, Spielberg's semi-biography has a good chance of getting a nomination, especially if his win at the Golden Globes is anything to go by.
In the mix, we also have Martin McDonagh, the Daniels (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert) and Todd Field, who have all written and directed their submitted features. All four have good odds of getting nominated for Best Director and also for Best Original Screenplay too.
In recent events, Daniels won Best Director for Everything Everywhere All at Once at the CCAs, while McDonagh and Spielberg won at the Golden Globes. Todd Field's Tár has received several big nominations but has yet to win one of the big awards.
The final slot is difficult to determine. It may well be the first Academy Award for Ruben Östlund's Triangle of Sadness or Edward Berger and his adaptation of the first World War in All Quiet on the Western Front. Alternatively, James Cameron might get another nod for the much-anticipated Avatar sequel.
In 2023, three established directors who might miss out on this category are Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Damien Chazelle (Babylon) and Darren Aronofsky (The Whale). Given the stronger contenders of this year, the odds of a mention are not in their favour. Luhrmann and Aronofsky have been snubbed at the Oscars for their previous works in this category, while Chazelle won in 2017.
Potential first-time nominees could be female directors, Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King. Both films have received a mix of nominations across multiple awards.
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (Tár)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
And the 95th Academy Award Nominees are ...
Many great movies were released in 2022, yet not all of them will be recognized for their talent. As always, the competition is fierce and it's an exciting time to find out which movies will lead with the highest number of nominations across various categories.
Will Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once receive the most nominations? Will Steven Spielberg or Cate Blanchett's Oscar collection get bigger? Will Jamie Lee Curtis be cheering for her co-star's win again?
Oscar nominees will be announced tomorrow (Jan. 24) and the event where the winners are announced on March 12.
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