Why It's Hard to Bet Against Auston Matthews to Win the Hart Trophy
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Four months ago, Auston Matthews was a long shot approaching 20 to win the Hart Trophy Award.
The award is for the player adjudged to be most valuable to their team. The favourite then was Connor McDavid. McDavid was the pre-season top choice and was on his own run while trying to average close to two points a game.
On Dec. 13, Matthews was behind the Alex Ovechkin. Then, in February, he even fell behind Jonathan Huberdeau. This is as Huberdeau was on an extended run that the Florida Panthers’ forward was averaging more than two points per game.
Bettors, even then, were starting to center in on Matthews. His number shortened from 20 to 13. The tide was turning.
The 50 in 50 Goal Run and More For Matthews
Ontario sports betting players know a good run when they see one and Matthews had a 50-game span ending earlier this month that he scored 51 times.
Matthews now leads the league in goals with 58 in 69 games played. He has 101 points.
However, it is those mind-grabbing runs that entice voters, especially the Professional Hockey Writers Association.
It was in the midst of this that Matthews and how he dominated possessions when the center was on the ice that was a game-changer.
The best defense for the center is his ability to create offensively. His possession numbers approach the 60th percentile. His shots are part of a trend that his shot prop bet became a wager to hammer for more than a month. His anytime goal prop was much the same.
All of this led to the odds turning in his favour. By the end of February, Matthews had inched past Huberdeau and Ovechkin.
He was quickly closing the gap on McDavid as well. The inevitable came quickly. By the second week of March, Matthews had finally become the top choice for the Hart Trophy.
Matthews has not looked back since
With just a couple of weeks to go in the regular season, Matthews has only cemented his status when it comes to the Hart Trophy.
He is already the runaway winner of the Rocket Richard Award (most goals). By March 24, Matthews had 2.55 odds to win the Hart. McDavid was second at 5.25.
Three weeks later, the gap has widened. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ center stands at 1.28, which is an implied percentage of 78.13. In terms of American numbers, that is almost a -360. This is pretty much a lock.
Could anyone steal the award in the next couple of weeks? That answer appears to be no as Matthews has too many favourable matchups (at least five).
The odds are on Matthews to win his first Hart Trophy come season’s end and it may be only the beginning.
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