India vs Afghanistan ODI World Cup: Latest Odds & Analysis

Date IconLast Updated: 10 Oct 2023
Share On Your Network
India vs Afghanistan ODI World Cup: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v Afghanistan predictions: 

When: Wednesday 11 October, 2:00pm IST

Where: Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar

Best Odds: India 1.14, Afghanistan 8.00

It wasn’t the perfect performance in Chennai at the weekend, but the end result was commanding. The 2023 ODI World Cup favourites demolished Australia despite the absence of leading run scorer Shubman Gill and three of their top four all being dismissed for ducks.

The three spinners used were all tremendous, applying the brakes from the moment Ravichandran Ashwin began his first spell inside the powerplay, and the trio combined for figures of 6-104 from 30 overs against an opposition with no shortage of experience in the subcontinent.

They will now face the worst performers of the opening weekend and betting sites are not expecting India’s near-perfect record of seven wins and a tie from eight games against Afghanistan in all formats to be further blemished.

After hailing an impressive bowling and fielding effort against Australia, Rohit Sharma hinted that the team may have to change combinations to adapt to the different conditions that Delhi will provide, which could include the omission of Ravichandran Ashwin for a seam option such as Shardul Thakur or Mohammed Shami.

The Numbers That Matter

  • Teams that score 240+ in Delhi ODIs have an 83% win rate whilst those who don’t win 21% of the time 
  • Rohit Sharma faced ten balls from Mujeeb ur Rahman in the 2019 WC and scored one run before being dismissed
  • Ravindra Jadeja has figures of 2-3 from five balls bowled to Rahmat Shah in ODIs
  • Ashwin, Bumrah, Kuldeep and Hardik have IPL bowling averages of 38, 37, 39 and 47 in Delhi

Delhi-ver an easy victory

Afghanistan has now lost 15 of their 16 ODI World Cup matches across their history, only defeating Scotland in the 2015 edition. 

On the basis of their performance against Bangladesh, who aren’t considered by many to be semi-finals prospects this year, Afghanistan were a long, long way off being competitive against India.

There was some horrendous shot selection and execution on what was by no means a difficult Dharamsala pitch, and some wayward bowling from Bangladesh’s openers allowed them to get a start.

It was yet another case of Afghanistan’s top three contributing the bulk of the runs, and with the three of them unable to put together 100 runs combined, there wasn’t enough of a platform for a brittle middle and lower order to build upon.

Afghanistan are failing to bat out their 50 overs far too often, and in the first ODI meeting between these sides since the previous World Cup, the two nations look a lot further apart than they did when Afghanistan fell agonisingly short in a chase of 225.

There’s no value at all in taking India’s win price, but it’s a very safe way of increasing your account balance at the end of the day! 

Prediction: India to win - 1.10 @ Luckster Sport

A high value ‘high bat’ selection

Picking Afghanistan’s top scorer used to be a coin toss between the opening pair, but some diminishing returns in recent months from Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran has made it a bit of a lottery.

They’ve had five different top scorers across their last seven ODIs and there’s a left-field pick out of those five that we were quite impressed with on Saturday.

Number seven batter Azmatullah Omarzai ended up as their second highest scorer against Bangladesh and he played some very convincing strokes in his partnership with Mohammad Nabi, and it was only when the tail was exposed that he went searching for one shot too many.

Azmatullah has best ODI scores of 56 (v Bangladesh) and 28 (v Sri Lanka), both of which followed collapses in heavy defeats. India’s powerplay bowling potency could very well see the top order shredded and the opportunity for lower order batters to get some extended time at the crease during the middle overs. 

Mohammad Nabi has cleared 30 runs just once in his last 12 innings and Rashid Khan hasn’t done so at all, so let’s have a little speculative play on Omarzai at an interesting price.

Prediction: Azmatullah Omarzai Top Afghan Batter -  11.0 @ Luckster Sport

Deh-lightful Kohli to cash in

Many cricket betting sites still had Shubman Gill in the market for India’s top scorer at time of writing, despite him being all but officially ruled out of not only this game but potentially the next one with his dengue fever.

That means there’s still a bit of value in the market around Gill, but this time we’re going with the favourite. 

Virat Kohli was sublime in the face of a high-pressure situation against Australia, and whilst he couldn’t outscore KL Rahul on Sunday, it was a great sign for a man who not only has six half-centuries from his last ten ODI World Cup innings, but also a 34* in a successful run chase.

Virat has played only one ODI in Delhi since the start of 2017, having missed the 2022 and 2023 editions, but his IPL record at Arun Jaitley Stadium when coupled with his World Cup returns points towards another reason to be confident of a big score.

He’s passed 50 in six of his last eight IPL innings at Arun Jaitley Stadium, a remarkable return for the toughest tournament in world cricket. 

Kohli evidently has an intimate understanding of the ground conditions when facing a white ball, and when coupling that with his three international innings against Afghanistan (50 at the 2012 World Twenty20, 67 at the 2019 ODI World Cup, 122* at the 2022 T20 Asia Cup), it all points to some big numbers.

Prediction: Virat Kohli Top Indian Batter - 3.75 @ Luckster Sport