Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 5 Selections For Saturday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for Saturday's action.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and, most recently, as a tipster for Betfair, where his tipping column achieved a 31% ROI over 4.5 years.
He often focuses on the back end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 396.92 points from 249.50 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at a whopping +147.42pts overall - thanks to Friday's 66/1 winner (Unquite Dreams).
Here are Rhys' tips for today, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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14:05 Ripon: By Jove Grace - 0.5pt Win @ 11/1
Quillan and Warby dominate the market for the opening novice race at Ripon, but I think one of their rivals is more of a danger than the market suggests.
By Jove Grace made her debut last month and made a promising start to her career.
She raced at the back of the four-runner field early on before making headway two furlongs out when the pace lifted.
She looked a bit green and ran around once getting into clear space and couldn’t quite go with In The Black late on while comfortably holding on for second.
The odds-on favourite, who finished last, had previously run to a good level on debut behind a subsequent Group 2 winner and the third ran respectably in defeat on his subsequent start at Ffos Las behind Jaan Ki Tukri.
The way that By Jove Grove travelled into contention that day suggests she can cope with the sharper test of Ripon, and I thought she ran to a level on debut that gives her a better chance at these weights than the market suggests.
Any 8/1 or bigger appeals.
14:10 Market Rasen: Mojito Des Mottes - 1pt Win @ 16/1
The Summer Hurdle is likely to be strongly run and I think that gives Mojito Des Mottes a better chance than his price suggests.
He looked quite promising when making a successful start to his career at Moulins but he was initially disappointing after moving to Ben Pauling until showing more on his latest start for him at Ascot.
That was his first run after a wind op and he travelled strongly at the back of the field before looking to make progress on the long run to three out.
However, he was bumped badly and squeezed out of the position he was trying to get into which shuffled him back to last again. Once in the home straight, he made good headway to jump the last in third and finished strongly but couldn’t quite catch King Al.
I expect that he would have won quite easily but for the interference so a 4lb rise looks to underrate the level that Mojito Des Mottes ran to that day.
The wind op clearly had a positive impact on him so hopefully that will still be the case today and he can build on the promise of that run.
There is a slight concern that he might ideally want the ground a little softer but he should be able to handle this at least and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 2: 14:10 Market Rasen: Mojito Des Mottes - 1pt Win
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16:05 Market Rasen: Huit Reflets - 1pt Each-Way @ 11/2
Huit Reflets may not be the easiest ride, but I think the likely scenario in this race sets up well for him on his return to chasing and he can gain a second win in this sphere.
He was a comfortable winner off a 2lb lower mark over this sort of trip at Sedgefield last season but surprisingly he was kept to longer trips after that and they always looked to stretch his stamina a little.
There was another excuse for his final start of the season at Newcastle where he was reported to be lame.
He wore a visor in those runs and that had a positive impact on him so the return of that headgear today after wearing cheekpieces in two recent starts over hurdles is a positive for his chance.
Those runs will have hopefully put him spot on for today and the likely good pace should help his cause too.
It may be that Huit Reflets will once again find less than looks likely in the closing stages and the additional distance today doesn’t help him but he looks overpriced in a moderate contest and any 9/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 16:05 Market Rasen: Huit Reflets - 1pt Each-Way
16:21 Cartmel: Wearelongterm - 0.5pt Win @ 18/1
Wearelongterm is another horse making his return to chasing and a couple of his performances in this sphere in the autumn suggest he could run better than his price suggests.
Despite his jumping not always being too convincing, he ran well to be beaten a length behind Diamond Dealer at Kelso in October.
The winner has won twice more over fences since while the fourth has won over fences since and the fifth won her next two starts.
Wearelongterm was caught late on by Sir Carnegie over the same course and distance on his next start having got the better of a battle up the home straight with Jirko.
The winner has since won twice over fences and is towards the front of the market for a race at Market Rasen today.
I think the switch to a right-handed track and softer ground didn’t help Wearelongterm next time so that run can be excused to some extent and the ground was once again softer than ideal on his latest start.
While he’s been a non-runner on good ground in the past, I wonder if that was a case of connections being very cautious due to his size and possibly that he’s had problems, but I think this sort of ground suits him and being back on a left-handed track is a positive for him too.
There is a concern that he may need the run after a break and that this track will put more pressure on his jumping than is ideal but I think he’s overpriced in a race of this quality and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 4: 16:21 Cartmel: Wearelongterm - 0.5pt Win
17:15 Market Rasen: Saxon Cross - 0.5pt Win @ 33/1
Saxon Cross finished well beaten when sent off favourite for his handicap debut at Uttoxeter last time, but I think the market has overreacted to that run and he has the potential to run better than his big price suggests.
He was previously trained by Cormac Farrell and ran well on his point debut for him before the wheels fell off in his next three starts in that sphere.
Switched to bumpers, he bounced back and ran respectably in defeat on a few occasions including at Wexford where he finished one place ahead of his now stablemate, The Cistercian.
Saxon Cross didn’t show too much on his first two starts over hurdles for Stuart Edmonds and was then poorly positioned in a very steadily run race when heavily backed for a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter.
The slowly run nature of that race and his positioning didn’t help his cause and he could only finish fourth while another horse who was held up, Kingofthefrontier, won a maiden hurdle next time.
Saxon Cross went off favourite again for his handicap debut at the same track but was reported to have made a noise and has since been given a wind op which hopefully will see him put in a much improved performance today.
Cheekpieces also go on which suggests they may have learned something from those runs and the application of them can help him to take a step forward too.
There is the worry that the wind op won’t have the desired effect and that he’s not wearing a tongue tie after having one is a bit concerning too but his price is too big to ignore given the potential for improvement and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 5: 17:15 Market Rasen: Saxon Cross - 0.5pt Win
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