India vs Australia Fourth T20I: Latest Odds & Analysis

Date IconLast Updated: 30 Nov 2023
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India vs Australia Fourth T20I: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

When: Friday 1 December, 7:00pm IST 

Where: Nava Raipur International Cricket Stadium, Raipur

Watch: Sports18, JioCinema (Fox Cricket in Australia)

Best Odds: India 1.55, Australia 2.50


Australia’s monstrous run chase of 223 in Guhawati, despite having to fly literally from one end of India to another as part of a 48-hour turnaround between matches, showed that they still mean business in this series despite some of the players having been overseas for nearly three months.

But their tag team approach to this series has been revealed as six members of their World Cup winning squad (Abbott, Inglis, Maxwell, Smith, Stoinis, Zampa) head home prior to this match, and four BBL stars (Ben Dwarshuis, Chris Green, Ben McDermott and Josh Philippe) come in.

The four are presumably all going to play at some point (why fly them halfway around the world if not?), which is why India’s odds have shortened with cricket betting sites once again, despite the loss in the third match.

 

The Numbers That Matter

  • 12 of India’s 13 T20Is at home to Australia had successful run chases
  • Nathan Ellis to SKY in T20s: 2-68 at 10.46rpo.
  • Ravi Bishnoi has dismissed Tim David and Matt Short twice each in this series
  • Arshdeep Singh dismissed Aaron Hardie with his first and only ball bowled to him

3-1, get it done!

We dodged a bullet by not tipping the home nation to win in the third T20I, but are this time expecting them to be too good on the basis of the extended gulf in class and experience between the two squads.

They have only strengthened their team on paper with Shreyas Iyer, who went on a brilliant run in this format in the first half of 2022, and if Chahar can push the out-of-form Prasidh Krishna out of the side, then that’s also a bonus.

It’s likely that a fairly settled side, many of whom have been together since the start of the Asian Games in September, will continue to grow in confidence and in execution throughout the series.

On the other hand, Australia are going to field as many as four new players who wouldn’t get a look-in in their best T20I XI, whilst the likes of Green and Dwarshuis would even struggle to make the plane to the T20 World Cup next year.

With no IPL experience in Raipur to draw from, the home nation advantage is firmly back in favour of the Indian side. 

Prediction: India to win - 1.54 @ Bet365

Ruturaj’s rewarding Raipur rendezvous

As one of two players from either side in this series with two 50+ scores, alongside his colleague Ishan Kishan, Ruturaj Gaikwad is thoroughly deserving to play all five games and continue to make his case as India’s first backup opener for the next World Cup.

His stunning 123no was overshadowed by Glenn Maxwell’s match-winning knock, but was no less remarkable as a result.

Gaikwad has cleared the 26.5 run mark set by cricket betting apps in four of his seven appearances in 2023, whilst he was on the way to doing so in his first with an effortless 19 not out before Dublin rain brought his innings to a close.

The Raipur pitch - which was rated the best of the 2013 IPL - typically plays fairly and evenly for both bat and ball, offering those batters who like pace on the ball good value for their strokes.

It’s a fantastic opportunity for him to step it up against a potentially new and downgraded Australian bowling attack. 

Prediction: Ruturaj Gaikwad over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365

Can’t keep him out, won’t keep him out

Are international teams beginning to work out new Australian fast bowler Nathan Ellis?

The tall 29-year-old express quick does appear out of sorts in recent weeks, going wicketless in three of his last four T20Is. 

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of his downturn in form is that he conceded at least nine runs per over in each of those four matches, despite not doing so in any of the first seven of his career.

But the man still has an incredible wicket-taking rate in his short T20I career, picking up seven multiple wicket hauls in 11 games, including in the second game of this series in Thiruvananthapuram. 

That was when he had his renowned death overs bowling skills on display, removing both Suryakumar Yadav and Ruturaj Gaikwad in his final two overs with a variety of deliveries. 

He also showed this year for the Punjab Kings that he doesn’t keep quiet for too long, registering no more than three consecutive matches without a multiple wicket return. The price is appealing.

Prediction: Nathan Ellis 2+ wickets - 2.75 @ Bet365