South Africa v India First ODI: Latest Odds & Analysis

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South Africa v India First ODI: Latest Odds & Analysis

South Africa v India predictions: 

When: Sunday 17 December, 1:30pm IST 

Where: Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar (Supersport in South Africa)

Best Odds: South Africa 2.2, India 1.66

After sharing the T20I series 1-1 with a washout in Durban, a low-key ODI series will bridge the gap between the T20s and the two all-important World Test Championship matches to take place later this month.

After opening at around the 2.3 mark, South Africa’s price firmed in throughout Friday as the host nation attracted some money to perform well in home conditions and avenge the T20I loss in Johannesburg, where this opening game will take place.

Owing to the busy schedule in 2023 and the upcoming Tests, both squads have made several changes to their sides yet again when compared with the T20I sides.

South Africa welcomed Tony de Zorzi, Rassie van der Dussen, Kyle Verreynne, Mihlali Mpongwana, Wiaan Mulder into an extended squad that has excluded Matthew Breetzke, Tristan Stubbs, Donovan Ferreira.

Led by KL Rahul, India’s ODI squad will see Rajat Patidar, Sai Sudharsan, Sanju Samson, Axar Patel, Avesh Khan and Yuzvendra Chahal come in for Suryakumar Yadav, Ishan Kishan, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, Jitesh Sharma, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Siraj and Ravi Bishnoi.

The Numbers That Matter

  • South Africa won 12 of their last 14 ODIs in Johannesburg
  • India has a 13-5 ODI record in opposition territory since their last tour of South Africa
  • Teams that score 265+ batting first in Johannesburg ODIs have a 70% win rate and a 27% win rate when they score less
  • South Africa’s last eight ODI opening partnerships without Quinton de Kock were less than 50 runs

Protea glory in the capital

South Africa’s recent record at Wanderers, mentioned above, is nothing short of imposing. 

Both teams have vastly different squads on display for this series but the Proteas retain home advantage over an opposition that is a bit short on experience in African conditions. 

They swept India 3-0 about 23 months ago at home and since then have been too good for England and Australia in home series. 

There’s still a lot of strength and experience in the batting including captain Markram, in-form opener Hendricks, and the imposing middle order pair of Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller.

India’s depth is nothing to ignore, but without a great deal of experience in their squad, South Africa’s home advantage grows.

Prediction: South Africa to win - 2.2 @ Parimatch

Refreshed Rassie looking for more

After a very mixed World Cup in which he produced two centuries, two fifties and not much else in between, Rassie van der Dussen will be searching to regain the consistency that he became infamous for in his first 30 or so ODIs, where he retained an average in the 60s for a very impressive length of time.

It’s at home where his returns have been diminishing throughout 2023, since he opened the calendar year with a first ODI century against England in Bloemfontein.

Van der Dussen has been set a mark of 31.5 runs by cricket betting apps, one that he has cleared in just one of his last nine innings on South African soil - all of which took place this year.

Including not outs, he has cleared 32+ runs in only two of his seven ODIs at the Wanderers, spanning across a four-year period.

You can get a couple of extra runs’ leeway by taking under 33.5 player performance runs for the same price, but that opens up the chance of him adding to his total with a catch (ten points), albeit a low chance for he averages 0.4 catches per ODI.

Prediction: Rassie van der Dussen under 31.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch

Fast bowling and fast food puns galore!

He returned underwhelming figures of 1-39 on international debut in the third T20I, but the stylish and lanky left-arm fast bowler wowed the crowd with speeds of up to 92 miles per hour (148kph), filling the void left by the injury to Anrich Nortje at least in that regard.

He should be better for the experience and get some additional opportunities to impress in this series, jostling with Nortje and Gerald Coetzee to fill the positions limited by Cricket South Africa’s racial quota.

Burger averages a handy 1.5 wickets per List A game and comes onto the international scene with figures of 6/38 for Western Province at this very venue less than three months ago. 

With the opportunity to settle into some longer spells, if he can add probing accuracy to his testing speeds, Nandre’s ODI debut could be one to remember - especially for his backers!

Prediction: Nandre Burger to take 2+ wickets - 2.37 @ Parimatch

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Aaron Murphy

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