South Africa v India Second Test: Latest Odds & Analysis

Date IconLast Updated: 2 Jan 2024
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South Africa v India Second Test: Latest Odds & Analysis

South Africa v India predictions: 

When: Wednesday 3 January, 10:03am SAST (1:30pm IST)

Where: Newlands, Cape Town

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar (Supersport in South Africa)

Best Odds: South Africa 2.2, Draw 6.0, India 2.38


The action moves from Centurion to the iconic Newlands Cricket Ground in Cape Town for the second of what really should be at least a three-Test series, but instead has been squeezed down to two because of South Africa’s SA20 franchise competition as well as a packed calendar.

India will have to wait for a maiden Test series win in South Africa for at least another four years as a result, but have a lot of pride to save as well as a series draw with the first game of the new year.

India can never be ruled out of any contest, which is why cricket betting sites have priced these two teams very evenly despite the lopsided nature of the previous game.

Our two player bets from the previous match were successful, including a juicy price for KL Rahul to top score in India’s first innings, so we’ll be playing with house money here and hoping to end the tour on a strong note.

 

The Numbers That Matter

  • South Africa won ten of their last 13 Tests in Cape Town
  • Nandre Burger to Yashasvi Jaiswal in the first Test: 2-8 from 4.1 overs
  • Keegan Petersen scored 82 and 72 in his only Cape Town Test 
  • Kagiso Rabada averages six wickets per Test at Newlands (42 from six)

2024 to start where 2023 ended

We made the grave error of backing India to outperform their hosts in Centurion and were proven horribly wrong.

The Proteas fast bowlers had the ball on a string and were getting some juicy lateral movement regardless of its age, and the Indian quicks were unable to come close to matching them in terms of incisiveness.

India rolled over meekly on day three to be skittled for just 131, with 58% of runs coming from Virat Kohli’s 76.

South Africa saw stellar performances from debutants David Bedingham and Nandre Burger, who should both grow further in confidence after conquering the ICC’s top ranked Test team.

Such a high quality side such as India is unlikely to be outclassed to that extent on consecutive occasions, but it would take a remarkable turnaround from both teams (South Africa for the worse and India for the better) to make up an innings and 32 run deficit.

Prediction: South Africa to win - 2.2 @ Parimatch

Mesmerising Marco returns to former glory

Marco Jansen is transforming himself into a world class three-format all-rounder and returns to the site where he devastated India with a career-best haul of 7/91, losing the Player of the Match award to Keegan Petersen who scored those aforementioned twin 50s.

Jansen has amassed a devastating 23 wickets from his four Tests against India - an average of nearly six - adding four in the most recent game including 3/36 in the second innings demolition.

In addition to that average of six wickets per Test against the Indians - which amounts to 120 player performance points - Jansen is now averaging 20 runs per Test innings (regardless of whether or not he is dismissed, which does not matter as far as player performance wagering is concerned).

His 84* in the previous Test was his second half-century in Test cricket, to go with a 48 at Lord’s. 

It seems he’s not even close to reaching his ceiling yet, so we’re keen to back him in for another big game.

Prediction: Marco Jansen over 119.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Parimatch

Jaiswal looked uncomfortable 

It’s not as though Yashasvi Jaiswal has never played on fast and bouncy pitches before, but he was exposed by the expertise of the Proteas bowlers in both innings of the first Test and could struggle again.

In the second innings he was outdone by some steepling bounce from Nandre Burger, and in the first was pinned back on the crease by short bowling before throwing his hands at a fuller ball with no footwork.

He’ll need to make some significant mental and technical adjustments if he’s to get on top of the bowling in just his fourth game.

That’s why cricket betting apps have set a modest 56.5 run mark for his total match score, but with the bowling and the conditions likely to be similar, we’re expecting him to produce two more low scores. 

Prediction: Yashasvi Jaiswal under 56.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch