South Africa v India Third ODI: Latest Odds & Analysis

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South Africa v India Third ODI: Latest Odds & Analysis

South Africa v India predictions: 

When: Thursday 21 December, 4:30pm IST 

Where: Boland Park, Paarl

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar (Supersport in South Africa)

Best Odds: South Africa 2.0, India 1.8

It’s an easy thing to say after your worst tipping performance of the entire year, but this series has been a very difficult one to predict, hasn’t it?!

Of the five times these sides have clashed heads across two formats in this tour, there hasn’t been a single even-handed game, with the sides trading thrashings throughout.

That’s why we weren’t willing to pick a winner in the previous ODI, instead siding with India’s opening partnership which was broken up in just the second delivery of the match.

Most notably, South Africa won both games that were played at Paarl’s Boland Park in the early 2022 series by 31 runs and seven wickets.

The Paarl pitch should be a lot less in favour of seam bowling than the one in Gqeberha, which could shift the advantage slightly towards the tourists.


The Numbers That Matter

  • The average first innings score from seven ODIs in Paarl since 2012 is 281
  • The four teams that won batting first in those seven games scored 290+
  • Ruturaj Gaikwad’s six ODI scores: 19, 8, 71, 8, 5, 4
  • Arshdeep has bowled 21 balls to Reeza Hendricks in this series for figures of 2-5

A second consecutive home series win against India

The first two ODIs underlined that recent venue history can sometimes count for nothing as South Africa shirked their strong record in Johannesburg and poorer one in Gqeberha.

But now that they’re headed back in the right direction, we can look at their overall history in Paarl (W8, L1) with a lot more confidence, especially given their two most recent outings were pretty comprehensive wins over India.

Their top four batters are all getting into pretty good shape against a comparatively weak bowling lineup, whilst Nandre Burger (3-30 from 10) and Beuran Hendricks (2-34 from 9.2) demonstrated their growth as bowlers with solid performances. 

South Africa are already a confident side to face in their own backyard, and now have momentum in their favour as they look to pick up a fifth win from their last seven ODI series at home. 

As a co-host of the next ODI World Cup in 2027, they have every reason to take every single home ODI over the next three years with the utmost of seriousness and perhaps have more at stake here than the Indians, whose win in the first game was enough to retain their number one ICC ranking irrespective of what happens here.

Prediction: South Africa to win - 2.0 @ Parimatch

Rassie’s Paarl party resumes

One man who could be more excited than anyone to go back to Boland Park is 34-year-old South Africa veteran Rassie van der Dussen, who is on a relatively lean run in recent weeks but has some wonderful memories of this venue to draw from.

He wasn’t far off Player of the Series Quinton de Kock in South Africa’s previous series at home to India, striking 129no and 37no in the two victories in Paarl.

Since then, he has shown that big scores are generally not too far away, somewhat bouncing back from consecutive single digit scores with his 36 at St George’s Park.

This batting-friendly surface should assist him in improving upon that 36.

We’re generally of the more conservative type when it comes to player props, given the juice the bookmakers take out of the market percentages, but if you’re feeling brave - back him to make his first 50 in four home innings!

Prediction: Rassie van der Dussen to score 30+ runs - 1.8 @ Parimatch

South Africa’s own ‘Universe Boss’

After three consecutive starts in the 20s, South African top order batter Tony de Zorzi finally realised his potential and ensured the Proteas wouldn’t trip up with a dazzling unbeaten century, including six sixes and nine fours.

He reminded us of one Christopher Henry Gayle in more ways than one, not just with his belligerent hitting but everything from the black head covering to the long sleeves and dreadlocks.

De Zorzi comes into this match with 195 career runs to his name from four innings and a damaging strike rate of 101, a small sample size but enough to show the world his talents against both pace and spin.

He should now be brimming with confidence after converting a start, and his ability to be able to strike the ball from early on gives us confidence that he can register another impactful score. 

Prediction: Tony de Zorzi over 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch


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Aaron Murphy

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