Brazil Poll: 62% Back Lula's Betting Ban But Race Stays Tight
A new Quaest poll commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo found 62% of Brazilians approve of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's move to restrict online betting, but the same survey shows no matching jump in his re-election numbers with the vote nine days away.
What The Poll Found On Betting Restriction
Quaest surveyed 2,004 people aged 16 and over between September 24 and 27, 2026, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level.
The poll is registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-06520/2026 and is the first Quaest survey conducted since Lula announced the crackdown on Friday, September 25.
The 62% approval figure for the betting restriction reflects two groups: 40% of respondents already knew about the measure and supported it, while a further 22% had not heard of it but said they considered it a good idea when told about it.
The betting restriction was the most popular of the three measures tested in the same poll, ahead of a 15% increase in the Bolsa Familia welfare payment (59% approval) and a policy extending access to weight-loss medication through the public health system, SUS (58% approval).
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No Matching Boost In Presidential Race
Despite the betting measure's popularity, Quaest recorded no comparable shift in Lula's standing relative to his main rival.
The poll puts Lula at 39% of first-round voting intentions against Flavio Bolsonaro on 34%, while the two are numerically tied in a second-round runoff scenario at 42% each.
Lula did gain ground with specific religious blocs over the same period: among Catholic voters, his first-round support rose from 43% to 48%, and among evangelical voters it rose from 23% to 27%, according to the same survey.
Context: The Ban Itself
Lula's Provisional Measure restricting online betting followed months of government concern over rising household debt linked to betting apps, and it must still go through Brazil's Congress within a set window to remain in force permanently.
Betting operators and trade groups have already asked Brazil's Supreme Court to suspend the measure, and the government has separately set an October 6 deadline for platforms to wind down local online betting operations, giving the sector a narrow timeline to respond while the political and legal fights play out in parallel.
Quaest bundled the betting question with two other Lula-backed measures announced in the same period, the Bolsa Familia increase and the SUS weight-loss drug policy, giving pollsters a read on how the government's late-campaign policy push is landing as a package rather than in isolation.
The betting restriction came out on top among the three, suggesting the ban itself resonates with voters even though it has not moved Lula's head-to-head numbers against Flavio Bolsonaro.
For operators and bettors tracking how the crackdown affects licensed alternatives, Gambling.com's online casino guide covers regulated markets where betting products currently operate without the same restrictions. Quaest's full poll results are reported via Agencia Estado.
