Best US Prediction Market Apps & Sites for 2026
Prediction markets allow you to trade “Yes” or “No” shares directly with other users on the outcome of real-world events. As these apps become more and more popular, it’s important to know which ones are best for you and your trading habits.
Gambling.com's trading experts have compared the best prediction market apps and offer some alternatives.
Why You Can Trust Gambling.com's Prediction Market Reviews
✓ Safety: We ensure every recommended app complies with current legal guidelines designed to protect your identity and money.
✓ Experience: We consistently research the latest news and emerging trends in prediction markets to provide you with the most up-to-date data available.
✓ Insight: Our reviews are based on our hands-on testing and real user feedback, which allows us to create our own informed, impartial opinions about the sites we recommend.
✓ Integrity: We follow strict editorial guidelines to ensure that our prediction market reviews are accurate, clear, and independent.
✓ Responsibility: This guide includes extensive resources to support responsible trading practices. Each recommendation offers resources to manage prediction markets safely and responsibly.
Our Recommended Prediction Market Promos
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
Refer to Cashback Terms & Conditions for full program terms.
Top Prediction Market Apps
| Rank | Prediction App | Promo | Code | Why Choose it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polymarket | Deposit $10, Get $50 | GAMBLING | Broadest range of event markets outside of sports |
| 2 | ProphetX | Make $50 in Trades, Get $75 | GDC | Sharper pricing with familiar layouts |
| 3 | OG Markets | Trade $25, Get $25 | No Code Required | Crypto-native, community-driven event trading |
| 4 | Novig | Deposit $10, Get $25 | No Code Required | Frequent, serious sports trading with no fees |
| 5 | Underdog Predict | 50% Deposit Match up to $1k in Bonus Funds | GDC | Casual sports & pop culture trading |
1. Polymarket
Polymarket is the most complete prediction market we recommend; for someone who wants one app to trade the news cycle as much as the scoreboard, nothing else matches its range.
It has the broadest market offering by far, including the deepest non-sports catalog in the US. You can trade on a wide range of topics, including sports, politics, world events, and pop culture. The platform also recently introduced perpetual futures, which are contracts without a fixed settlement date.
Polymarket functions like a traditional stock brokerage and settles trades in the stablecoin USDC, so it's ideal for users already familiar with cryptocurrencies or those looking to use them more often.
You can follow other users' comments and the latest news headlines to help inform your trades.
Polymarket also features a customizable dashboard for monitoring multiple markets and verified leaderboards to follow other users' moves. Since you're only trading with other users and can sell your position anytime, this helps you know when to strike.
Its weaknesses (mobile-only trading and thin responsible-trading tools) are real, but they don't outweigh the fact that it does more and does most of it well.
At a Glance
| Platforms | iOS (4.7★), Android (4.3★) |
| App Architecture | Order-book |
| Payout Speed | Instant |
| Availability | All states (except NV) |
| Customer Support | 24/7 live chat, Help Center |
| Min. Deposit | $10 |
| Deposit Methods | USDC Stablecoin – Apple Pay, online banking, debit card, wire transfer |
Pros & Cons
- Broadest market catalog, including sports & non-sports
- Competitive fees with maker rebates up to 1.25%
- Crypto-native with instant crypto payouts
- Social features, including customizable dashboard and global P&L leaderboards
- Backed by $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (parent company of NY Stock Exchange)
- No fees on geopolitical contracts
- Strong liquidity on high-profile markets
- Mobile-only trading
- Thin responsible-trading tools
- Unavailable in Nevada
- Thin liquidity in niche/lower-profile markets
What Users are Saying
App Store
- "Their app is great, interface very user friendly. Downside is they are still slow to respond to support inquiries can take a few days. Despoit/Withdrawals also need improvement on speed. Most other prediction markets, DFS sites, and sportsbooks payout near instantly. Taking 4 business days for a withdrawal is tough. Those aside, love the app and can't wait to see the improvement!"
- "This app is super simplistic and straight to the point. I really enjoy the 'Trend' page that showcases events happening LIVE that affect the election. ... widgets would be amazing. Most the 'Panels' in the app look like widgets anyaways by having a nice widget on my background would be amazing to quickly glance at how things are going."
Google Play Store
- "best app for prediction"
- "Well-designed app. Great for seeing the [prices] of the presidential election on the most liquid election betting market. Helps me keep track of what's happening."
- "Very good app!!! I like the breakdown of the individual categories and the graphs are a very nice touch !!!"
- "This is amazing to watch. I find myself checking it throughout the day or anytime a news story or event breaks"
2. ProphetX
ProphetX may be smaller in scope than Polymarket or OG, but what it does, it does cleanly. It's a well-executed, if narrower, trading platform than its counterparts. It strips out the house margin, and its 0%-fee peer-to-peer parlays and transparent 2% commission on winnings are a rare combination.
It has no affiliated trading arm competing against users, either.
It loses ground for having zero non-sports markets and zero social features, but there's very little friction or ambiguity in the product.
The absence of any social layer or non-sports markets does mean it's not a good fit for anyone who wants more than sports, but for someone who just wants better pricing on the exact bet types they already place, it's the cleanest transition.
At a Glance
| Platforms | iOS (4.8★), Android (4.5★), desktop |
| App Architecture | Order book |
| Payout Speed | 1-5 days |
| Availability | All states |
| Customer Support | 24/7 live chat, phone, email, Help Center guides |
| Min. Deposit | $10 |
| Deposit Methods | Crypto, online banking |
Pros & Cons
- First federally regulated sports-native prediction market in the US
- Broad availability in 49 states
- No affiliated trading arm competing against users
- Transparent 2% commission structure on net winnings
- Peer-to-peer parlays with 0% house fee
- Doesn't limit winning accounts
- Instant crypto withdrawals; instant deposits via online banking
- No embedded juice
- No non-sports markets
- No social features
- No loyalty program for frequent traders
- Only 3 payment methods with just 1 crypto option
- Incentive funds forfeited if unused within 45 days
- Liquidity can be thin on lower-profile markets versus marquee games
What Users are Saying
App Store
- "I've enjoyed my experience since switching over in February. Mostly everything is available besides first round leader. Great value on most things."
- "This app is better than using DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM etc. There is no house booking bets. You are being matched with other bettors so you aren't paying the big like you do in those other apps. I recommend giving this a try and you will use it primarily."
- "One of the best sites available with the really good [prices] that compete with all the other prediction markets. User friendly as well!"
Google Play Store
- "I’ve been using ProphetX for a bit now and it’s probably the book I trust the most at this point. The lines are sharp and competitive, so I’m not constantly hunting for a better number. But what really keeps me on it is knowing I can actually win and not get limited for it—that alone puts it above most books for me. The paper trading feature is also really cool if you want to test stuff out or track ideas without risking real money, and deposits and withdrawals have been simple and smooth."
- "best prediction market app out there. deposit and redeems fast & easy!"
- "ProphetX is easy to use and has really good [prices]."
3. OG Markets
Broad sports and non-sports markets, strong social community features, and an AI parlay-building assistant called Alpha put OG Markets in real contention with Polymarket.
OG's parlay tools, plus real-time chat and P&L leaderboards, make it feel like a social trading floor; 350+ crypto conversions with no deposit fee play directly into a Crypto.com-native audience.
But it has more rough edges than we'd like: The lack of limit orders and order book depth is a real limitation for anyone who cares about precise execution. It currently only allows ACH withdrawals with a $100 minimum. That's a lot of friction for a platform this new.
Still, this platform is a good fit for someone optimizing for community and crypto funding convenience over surgical pricing.
At a Glance
| Platforms | iOS (4.1★), Android (4.1★), desktop |
| App Architecture | Order book |
| Payout Speed | Within 24 hours |
| Availability | All states (except AZ); market restrictions in IL, MA, MI, NV, NJ, OH |
| Customer Support | 24/7 live chat, Help Center |
| Min. Deposit | $10 |
| Deposit Methods | Bank transfer/wire, PayPal, debit cards, Apple Pay, Google Pay, Venmo, crypto |
Pros & Cons
- Real-time community chat and verified P&L leaderboards
- Broad range of sports & events markets
- Convert cryptocurrencies into USD to fund account; no deposit fees
- Available in nearly all 50 states
- Wide range of deposit methods: E-wallets, online banking, debit, crypto
- Strong liquidity on high-profile markets
- Market orders only (no limit orders yet)
- ACH-only withdrawals with high $100 minimum
- Sports markets restricted in some states
- Unavailable in New York & Arizona
What Users are Saying
App Store
- "Exactly what I was looking for. Could make the crypto or add stocks better, but thumbs up."
- "Great app for stock prediction. Really easy to use."
- "Good support"
Google Play Store
- "Been extremely fun"
- "Awesome"
- "I can't even stay long on it [says] I have to re-sign up"
4. Novig
Novig's fee structure is genuinely excellent for frequent, liquidity-providing traders.
Between no-fee pre-game trades and maker fills, the 50% maker-fee rebate program, and features like automatically locking in your profit early when you hedge a bet, or getting paid out fairly if a game gets cut short, Novig rewards people who trade often and post liquidity rather than just take the market price.
It only recently transitioned to a fully CFTC-registered prediction market (its third business model in five years), and it’s still finding its footing. The minimum age requirement is 21, which is higher than for our other recommended prediction markets.
However, for a high-volume, fee-conscious sports trader, the economics are the best of the four.
At a Glance
| Platforms | iOS (4.7★), Android (4.6★), desktop |
| App Architecture | Order book |
| Payout Speed | Within minutes |
| Availability | All states (except AZ, MI, NV) |
| Customer Support | 24/7 live chat, Help Center |
| Min. Deposit | $10 |
| Deposit Methods | Credit, debit, Apple Pay, Aeropay |
Pros & Cons
- Zero-fee pre-game trades & maker fills
- Maker Credit Program pays 50% of the taker fee back on live in-game fills
- No winner limiting
- No playthrough requirements before withdrawals
- Loyalty program in Novig Points; earn points through daily log-ins & challenges
- Early Payout automatically credits locked-in profit when you hedge a position, before the game ends
- Robust responsible trading tools
- Fair Value Settlement protects you if a market can't resolve cleanly
- Bank transfer and stablecoins deposits are free
- Fees assessed on live & parlay trades
- Higher min. age requirement than competitors
- Credit/debit/Apple Pay deposits carry a 3% fee
What Users are Saying
App Store
- "Had a great experience with this app, I deposited $10, they gave me $25 in trade credits. Great layout, highly recommend giving it a try"
- "Best Prediction Market App for Sports - Best prices for taking trades on sports, really good interface, pays out fast"
- "I really like the app a lot. I wish it had more tennis matches and showed the score of the tennis matches in progress ... I really wanna switch over and use this app all the time so maybe something for y'all to think about"
Google Play Store
- "great app to play. new improved updated version payout instantly!🤑"
- "Great app honestly. No trouble withdrawing, it was instant. Smooth app with great promotions"
- "absolutely love the No Vig app. They have some of the best lines in the business and you also have the ability to set your own lines if you dont like the lines available as long as someone else is willing to accept your bet. The only thing they can do better imo is making the rewards system more appealing. overall I love the app."
- "I'd love for there to be more markets, but the exchange runs smooth and the challenges make it preferable to ProphetX imo."
5. Underdog Predict
Underdog Predict allows users to trade event contracts on real-world outcomes, including sports and mention markets.
Underdog Predict is integrated into the rest of the gaming company's suite of games and products, so it will feel familiar if you've played daily fantasy in the past. In fact, you only need to download one app to play daily fantasy and trade prediction markets.
The contract types will look similar, as well: You can create Prediction Parlays, which consist entirely of prediction market multis, or “Combo” entries that function like parlays, combining legs from both prediction markets and daily fantasy sports into a single pick.
That's why this platform is best for new traders or casual sports fans looking to start trading on prediction markets, but want to get familiar first. Underdog Predict doesn't have the same advanced features or social integrations as the other apps on our list, so it presents a simplified platform perfect for beginners.
Compared to our other recommended prediction market apps, Underdog Predict’s liquidity can be thin, as well. Because it doesn’t support limit orders, be cautious with trade timing and size to avoid unfavorable prices.
At a Glance
| Platforms | iOS (4.8★), Android (4.6★), desktop |
| App Architecture | Buy-and-sell |
| Payout Speed | Within 2 days |
| Availability | All states (except AZ, CO, KY, MA, MD, MI, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN) |
| Customer Support | 24/7 live chat, Help Center, email |
| Min. Deposit | $10 |
| Deposit Methods | Trustly, credit, Google Pay, Apple Pay |
Pros & Cons
- Integrated into Underdog app for one single platform
- Build Combos with legs from prediction markets & DFS
- Simple flat 2c per-contract fee
- Early cash-out available
- Zero banking fees for any deposits or withdrawals
- Robust responsible trading tools
- No limit orders or order book
- No PayPal, Venmo, or crypto payments accepted
- Trading fees can get pricey for high-volume users
- No advanced trading tools or social features
- Only offers sports-centered markets
What Users are Saying
App Store
- "Great app for beginners"
- "Awesome app - easy to use and get started"
- "Nothing bad to say - Great app & great repsonding time with any questions!!!"
- "Love the app - just a couple little things need to be tweaked in my mind"
Google Play Store
- "Withdrawal process should be instant, not 3-5 business days."
- "cool, just wish they made it easier to withdraw"
- "very fun and easy to use."
- "Great support when there are issues."
At a Glance: Comparing Top Prediction Market Platforms by Features
All of our recommended prediction markets offer sports markets and allow users to build sports parlays. See how they compare across other key categories:
| Category | Polymarket | OG | ProphetX | Novig | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated as | DCM | DCM and DCO | CFTC-regulated exchange | CFTC-regulated exchange | DCM and DCO |
| Non-Sports Markets | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| Availability | Most states | Most states – sports restricted in some | Most states | Most states | Most states |
| Min. Age Requirement | 18+ | 18+ | 18+ | 21+ | 18+ |
| Fees | ~0.75-1.8%; no fees on geopolitical | Varies on sports & politics; $0.02/contract on crypto & commodities | 2% on straight trade net gains; 0% on parlays | Varies for parlays & live trades; 0% on everything else | $0.02 per contract |
| Order Types | Market & limit | Market | Market & limit | Market & limit | Buy-and-sell |
| Maker Benefits | Up to 1.25% rebate | None | None | 50% maker-fee rebates | None |
| Social Features | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
| Payments | Debit, bank transfer, wire, crypto | Bank transfer, wire, debit, PayPal, Apple Pay, Google Pay, Venmo, crypto | Aeropay, Zerohash (crypto), wire transfer | Credit, debit, Aeropay, Apple Pay, crypto | Trustly, Apple Pay, Google Pay, credit |
| Responsible Trading Tools | None in-app | Account closure | Deposit limits, trading breaks, self-exclusion, account closure | Limits, timeouts, self-exclusion, account closure, self-assessment | Self-exclusion, deposit limits, track spend history, parental controls, GuardDog RG investment fund |
*DCM = Designated Contract Market
*DCO = derivatives clearing organization
What are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are exchange-traded platforms where users buy and sell shares based on the outcomes of real-world future events. Apps provide contract trading, allowing users to buy and sell “Yes” or “No” shares on the outcome of those events.
Functioning like a stock exchange, they enable users to trade directly with one another in a peer-to-peer environment rather than wagering against a "house" that sets the odds.
Every contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99. Most prediction markets employ a capped-risk structure. Because contracts are priced under $1 and a "winning" payout is $1 per share, you're prevented from losing more than you've deposited.
The price represents the market’s collective belief—or implied probability—that an event will occur. Unlike traditional bets that are fixed until the event concludes, users can buy and sell their positions at any time as prices fluctuate in response to breaking news or shifting public sentiment. Rather than being locked into a fixed wager, traders can respond to market shifts until the very last second.
Are they Legal?
Yes. These platforms are regulated as financial exchanges rather than sportsbooks. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees these sites to ensure integrity and prevent fraud. Many apps allow users 18+ to participate.
These apps treat onboarding as opening a regulated financial account, so you should expect a thorough identification check before you can start trading. Prediction market apps (even crypto-native platforms) will verify your identity, including your address, birthdate, government ID, and Social Security Number. Secure apps should also use industry-standard 256-bit SSL encryption and two-factor authentication.
While these platforms generally operate legally under federal regulations, they face intensifying scrutiny from state regulators who view them as a "loophole" for unlicensed sports betting. Remember that laws change frequently; verify your state's status before signing up.
Types of Prediction Market Apps
Most prediction market apps are categorized into two primary types based on their architecture: order book apps and buy-and-sell interface apps.
Exchange-style apps, much like stock and other financial market apps, can feature a Central Limit Order Book, which allows users to place limit orders and create their own markets. For example, if you believe an event has a 60% chance of happening, you can bid $0.60 even if the current market price is lower.
With buy-and-sell apps, you pick a yes-or-no outcome.
| App Feature | Order Book | Buy-and-Sell Interface |
| How They Work | Place limit orders, set prices, seek bids | Pick yes or no outcome; confirm listed price |
| Pros | More control over contracts | Usually quicker to lead; easier to learn |
| Cons | Can be harder to learn to use | Less transparency & flexibility |
| Comparable Platform | Trading exchanges | Traditional betting app |
Types of Prediction Market Contracts
Within various app structures, prediction market sites offer a wide variety of contracts. While the most common format is a simple "Yes" or "No" question, platforms have evolved to include more complex types.
Binary (Yes/No)
Predict whether or not a specific event will occur ("conditional" versions only become active if a prior condition is met). If correct, the contract pays out $1.
Multiple-Choice
Pick from a set of possible outcomes within one event (i.e., "Who will win next year's Super Bowl?")
0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration)
For markets that settle same day (i.e., "Amazon stock up or down today?")
Scalar (Index)
Resolves based on a numerical range rather than a single outcome (i.e., "What price will Bitcoin hit this month?")
Futures
Tied to events that are weeks, months, or even years away (i.e., 2028 US Presidential winner)
Spread Betting
Predicting the direction of an outcome, with returns tied to how much a specific metric moves (i.e., "Apple stock up or down?")
Combos or Parlays
Bundle multiple individual contracts into a single position. All legs must resolve correctly for the trade to pay out
Prediction Market Types
While sports remain a major draw, over 60% of total volume on leading platforms now comes from economic and policy contracts. Let's look at the other types of things you can trade on:
Sports
Markets cover pro and college sports, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA football and basketball. You can trade on outright winners, spreads, point totals, props, and futures, though some states have restricted these markets.
Politics & Elections
You can trade on federal and state elections, Supreme Court rulings, Congressional decisions, and geopolitical events, though these are the subject of some proposed federal bans.
Economics & Finance
These contracts can include predictions on inflation reports, GDP growth, unemployment rates, interest rate changes, stock markets, and currency and oil prices. Some of these may be presented as 0DTE contracts, which settle the same day.
Pop Culture
Trade on popular cultural events, including award shows (such as Oscar winners), reality TV outcomes and eliminations, box-office successes, and other celebrity news or trends.
Climate & Weather
Traders can take positions on measurable meteorological outcomes. Contracts in these markets can include monthly rainfall totals, temperatures, and hurricanes or other natural disaster activity.
Technology
Technology markets can include product launches, industry benchmarks, and the emerging AI landscape. Predict when new products will be released or which models will perform best.
How to Choose the Right Prediction Market App for You
Here’s a look at the criteria you should evaluate before signing up for a prediction market app in the US:
Variety of Contract Types
There are many different contract types, though they all appear to function as futures. You should expect flexible contracts.
Transparent Limit Orders
The best apps will show market visibility, enable fast-paced trading, and charge a competitive house edge.
Low Fees
Prediction markets usually charge a fee on net profits, keeping house edges low. Look for transparent, low fees.
Live Trading Tools
Real-time data that scans public sentiment, historical trends, and live price charts can help you make better trades.
Personalization
Prediction markets work best when they're set up for your preferences, including price displays and customized dashboards.
Banking Options
You should consider the payment types you want to use, including crypto or traditional methods, and compare payout speeds.
Safety & Security Measures
Only use apps that verify your identity, use SSL encryption, and offer 2FA. This helps protect your personal data and prevent fraud.
App Architecture
Between order-book and buy-and-sell apps, your choice depends on your experience level and how much pricing control you want.
Ongoing Offers
Look for referral programs, tournaments, and other daily rewards to maximize your trading.
Social Integrations
Consider features like verified P&L leaderboards, the ability to copy trades, and real-time community chats.
Availability
Confirm whether there are any market or platform restrictions in your state.
Order Styles
Understand how you want to trade and find a platform that incentivizes your preferred markets.
Latest News Affecting Prediction Markets in the US
September 2026
- September 5: Philadelphia 76ers forward LeBron James teases a Polymarket partnership for the first time.
August 2026
- August 31: Kalshi permanently bans ex-Congressman George Santos for life after concluding he likely engaged in insider trading.
- August 28: The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rules that Kalshi's sports-event contracts are sports bets rather than CFTC-regulated swaps, clearing the way for Nevada to enforce its gambling laws and deepening a circuit split likely headed for the Supreme Court.
- August 25: Kalshi confirms official partnerships with five MLB teams, including the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants.
- August 13: A Washington state court orders Kalshi to stop offering prediction market contracts related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, and science, or "mentions" in the state.
- August 12: The CFTC sends a letter to prediction market operators outlining guidance for promotions and VIP programs.
- August 11: The CFTC exercises its emergency authority to order Kalshi to continue to operate in New York.
- August 10: US District Judge Vernon Oliver denies Kalshi's and Coinbase's motions for injunctions in Connecticut, writing that Kalshi is not entitled to relief from the state's attempts to shut down operations.
- August 5: Genius Sports announces data and integrity deals with Kalshi and Polymarket.
- August 4: US District Judge Robert J. Shelby rules that Utah can enforce a ban against Kalshi.
July 2026
- July 27: The NFL and other major sports leagues, along with attorneys general from more than 40 states, press the CFTC to tighten or abandon its proposed prediction market rules, while former Senator Christopher Dodd, co-author of the Dodd-Frank Act, argues the proposal contradicts the law.
- July 27: US District Judge Katherine Menendez grants Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC a preliminary injunction pausing Minnesota's prediction market ban, ruling the state law is likely preempted by the federal Commodity Exchange Act.
- July 16: Kalshi says Gabriel Perez, a teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump, used his position to win around $100k by trading on what the president would say in his speeches. The company froze his funds and referred the case to the CFTC.
June 2026
- June 24: Kalshi sues Illinois over SB 3019, which would classify exchange wagers as a form of sports betting, thus limiting prediction market contracts to operators that have sportsbook licenses.
- June 23: Kentucky becomes the ninth state sued by the CFTC over efforts to restrict prediction markets.
- June 10: The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission will propose new rules governing prediction markets, allowing sports-related trading and barring bets on war, terrorism, and assassinations.
- June 4: Polymarket has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Kalshi in their federal court case against Minnesota, challenging the state's prediction market ban.
May 2026
- May 29: Judge Jason Woodbury grants an injunction to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which blocks Polymarket from offering event contracts while litigation continues.
- May 27: The White House is reviewing a proposal to have the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulate prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
- May 25: Sporttrade begins shutting down its sports betting operations, with signs pointing to a pivot to prediction markets.
- May 20: The Senate Commerce Subcommittee holds its first formal hearing on sports betting and prediction markets, focusing on advertising practices, insider trading risks, and regulation.
- May 18: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz signs SF 4760, which bans event contracts on sports, politics, and pop culture. The CFTC has sued to block its enactment.
- May 12: The CFTC files in the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, arguing an Ohio federal court's March ruling—which found Kalshi constituted gambling under state law—took an "improperly narrow view" of CFTC authority.
- May 4: The Massachusetts Supreme Court hears oral arguments on online prediction markets, marking the first time that a state high court has addressed them.
- May 1: The Prediction Market Act of 2026, which would establish a regulatory framework and create safeguards, is introduced in the Senate.
Jan.-Apr. 2026
April 2026
- April 30: Senators vote to ban themselves from participating in prediction markets.
- April 23: The Wisconsin Department of Justice files three lawsuits against online prediction market companies for “working together to facilitate illegal sports betting throughout the state.”
- April 22: Kalshi announces it has suspended and fined three candidates—Mark Moran (VA independent), Matt Klein (MN Democrat), and Ezekiel Enriquez (TX Republican)—for trading on their own races.
- April 15: Kalshi petitions a federal court in Montana to block state officials from preventing the prediction market from offering event contracts.
- April 14: Kentucky lawmakers override Gov. Andy Beshear's veto of House Bill 904, which prohibits sportsbook operators and racetracks from partnering with platforms offering sports event contracts.
- April 10: The CFTC wins a restraining order blocking Arizona's criminal prosecution of Kalshi. An upcoming hearing will determine if CFTC registration provides immunity from state criminal prosecution.
- April 9: FIFA has agreed to a multi-year partnership with ADI Predictstreet as the organization's first official prediction market partner ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
- April 6: The Third U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rules that New Jersey cannot prevent Kalshi from offering sports-based trading contracts.
- April 2: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, accusing the states of overstepping by attempting to "outlaw, regulate and otherwise restrain" prediction markets. This marks the first time a federal agency has challenged states in court over prediction markets, and a Supreme Court ruling is likely the only viable outcome.
March 2026
- March 30: The NFL asks prediction market operators to keep specific event contracts that the league deems “objectionable bets” off of their platforms.
- March 27: Washington Attorney General Nick Brown files a lawsuit against Kalshi for allegedly violating state gambling laws.
- March 26: Senators introduce the PREDICT Act, which would prohibit government officials from trading on the outcomes of political events, policy decisions, and other government actions on prediction markets.
- March 25: SBC Summit Americas announces it will host a dedicated Prediction Markets Forum for 2026.
- March 17: Arizona files criminal charges against Kalshi for "operating an illegal gambling business in Arizona without a license" and election wagering.
- March 12: The CFTC issues a formal rulemaking process for prediction markets.
- March 9: A federal judge denied Kalshi's request to block enforcement by the Ohio Casino Control Commission, ruling that its sports prediction markets should fall under state gambling regulations.
- March 5: House members introduce the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would require the CFTC to ban contracts on terrorism, assassination, war, sports, elections, and government activity.
February 2026
- Feb. 19: The U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee finds that Kalshi's sports event contracts are likely "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act.
- Feb. 6: A Massachusetts judge issues a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, prohibiting the prediction market from offering sports-related trades. Kalshi has 30 days to stop offering these markets in MA.
- Feb. 3: Crypto.com launches OG Markets.
January 2026
- Jan. 29: The CFTC withdraws previous guidance cautioning against prediction markets and proposing restrictions on sports and politics contracts.
- Jan. 14: The American Gaming Association and the Indian Gaming Association submit a joint letter to Congress requesting federal action against prediction market operators.
- Jan. 9: The Public Integrity Act, which would prohibit federal officials and their staff from trading on these platforms using nonpublic information, is introduced in the House.
2025
- Dec. 11, 2025: Industry leaders, including Kalshi, Crypto.com, Underdog, Coinbase, and Robinhood, form the Coalition for Prediction Markets.
- Nov. 25, 2025: Polymarket announces the CFTC has issued an Amended Order of Designation, allowing the company to operate a trading platform.
- October 2025: The NHL names Polymarket and Kalshi as official prediction market partners, granting them access to proprietary league data and logos.
- July 21, 2025: Polymarket acquires QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, paving the way for its legal return to the US.
- July 15, 2025: The Department of Justice closes its investigation into Polymarket.
- April 8, 2025: The US District Court for the District of Nevada allows Kalshi to continue offering sports event contracts in the state despite the Gaming Control Board's cease-and-desist.
- March 28, 2025: Kalshi sues Nevada and New Jersey in federal court, arguing that only the CFTC has jurisdiction over its contracts.
- March 4, 2025: The Nevada Gaming Control Board becomes the first state gambling regulator to order Kalshi to shut down its sports and election prediction markets, arguing they constitute illegal gaming.
2022-2024
- Dec. 23, 2024: Crypto.com becomes the first prediction market platform to offer CFTC-regulated sports event contracts.
- Nov. 14, 2024: The US Department of Justice launches an investigation into Polymarket and raids the New York home of founder Shayne Coplan.
- Sept. 6, 2024: US District Judge Jia Cobb rules that Kalshi has a right to offer political event contracts. A month later, the DC Court of Appeals denies the CFTC's emergency motion to stay this lower court decision.
- Nov. 1, 2023: Kalshi sues the CFTC in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, arguing the commission overreached its authority in trying to limit political event contracts.
- May 1, 2023: The US Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit orders the CFTC not to close PredictIt or prohibit trading of its contracts pending final judgment. This is later cited as one of the reasons the CFTC cannot prohibit Kalshi from offering political contracts.
- Aug. 4, 2022: The CFTC withdraws prior guidance that had allowed New Zealand-based PredictIt to operate in the US.
2021-2022
- March 2022: Crypto.com acquires the North American Derivatives Exchange, inheriting its CFTC-registered DCM status.
- Jan. 3, 2022: The CFTC orders Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million penalty and exit the US market after determining the platform was offering unregistered event contracts.
- July 2021: Kalshi launches federally regulated event contract trading in the US.
Responsible Trading
Even though it functions differently from traditional betting, trading still involves some risk. Prediction market sites have established independent surveillance committees and AI-powered monitoring tools to track trades and maintain integrity.
Some platforms offer tools such as voluntary deposit caps and self-exclusion.
Prediction Market FAQs
How old do you have to be to use prediction market apps?
Because prediction markets are regulated as financial exchanges rather than gambling platforms, the minimum legal age to participate is 18, lower than the 21+ age requirement enforced by most state-regulated sportsbooks. However, age requirements vary by platform and state, so verify your location's rules before signing up.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes, prediction markets are currently legal in the US. They are regulated as financial exchanges by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, specific platforms and market types have been restricted in various states, where these apps are considered in violation of state laws governing betting. Check the states available by platform before signing up.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares on real-world events, functioning like a stock exchange where users trade directly with each other. Every contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, representing the likelihood that an event will occur. Unlike traditional bets, you can buy and sell positions anytime as prices shift.
How are prediction markets different than sportsbooks?
Prediction markets operate as peer-to-peer exchanges where users trade directly with each other rather than against a "house." Positions can be bought and sold anytime, fees are charged only on net profits, and coverage extends beyond sports to politics, economics, and more.
Sportsbooks set fixed odds on sporting events and act as the house.
References
