Prediction Markets Face A Global Squeeze As Ireland And India Push Polymarket And Kalshi Out
Two of the world's biggest prediction market platforms have retreated from another market. As of July 21, 2026 both Polymarket and Kalshi restricted access for users in Ireland, after the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland warned they must block local users or face High Court orders.
It is the clearest sign yet of a widening global split: outside the United States, regulators are treating prediction markets as unlicensed betting, while Washington protects them as financial exchanges.
Ireland forced the issue quickly. GRAI chief executive Anne Marie Caulfield said the regulator views the platforms as gambling services, not trading venues, and that under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024 any operator offering remote betting to Irish consumers has needed a GRAI licence since July 1, 2026 (RTE).
GRAI can seek High Court blocking orders and levy fines of up to EUR 20 million or 10% of turnover.
The Same Platforms, Opposite Treatment
India moved on the same logic, issuing blocking orders to Polymarket and Kalshi and warning VPN providers that users were still reaching restricted platforms.
Under India's 2025 gaming law, contracts staking money on event outcomes are prohibited outright.
The United States sits on the other side of the line. Kalshi has held a Commodity Futures Trading Commission Designated Contract Market licence since 2020, and Polymarket re-entered the US in early 2026 through a CFTC-registered exchange.
Under Chairman Michael Selig the CFTC has asserted exclusive federal jurisdiction, scrapped a proposed ban on sports and political contracts, and on April 2, 2026 sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, arguing the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws.
Four days later the Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi's favour on sports-related contracts.
The fight is far from settled: a Nevada judge upheld that state's ban, Arizona filed criminal charges, and a bipartisan group of senators introduced a "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" on March 23, 2026.
Where Prediction Markets Stand Worldwide
The pattern outside the US is consistent. Most gambling regulators class these platforms as betting and shut them out.
| Jurisdiction | Stance |
|---|---|
| United States | Legal federally on CFTC exchanges; several states challenging sports contracts |
| Ireland | Treated as remote betting; licence required; Polymarket and Kalshi geoblocked |
| United Kingdom | Gambling Commission guidance treats them as gambling; unlicensed platforms barred |
| France | ANJ ordered ISPs to geoblock Polymarket |
| EU (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, others) | Major platforms mostly blocked; crypto-token markets caught by MiCA |
| Australia | ACMA directed ISPs to block Polymarket under the Interactive Gambling Act |
| New Zealand | Ruled illegal in February 2026 |
| Canada | Kalshi blocks Canadian users; Polymarket limited in Ontario |
| Brazil, Mexico, Chile | Largely open, no active restriction |
| Argentina, Singapore, Thailand | Blocked or banned |
Why It Matters
The divergence is structural, not temporary. The US has chosen to regulate event contracts as commodity derivatives, a federal path that overrides state gambling law where courts agree.
Almost everyone else starts from a gambling framework that requires a local licence, consumer protections and responsible-gambling tools these platforms do not currently offer abroad.
For licensed betting operators, the crackdown removes an unregulated competitor that had been drawing wagering volume without paying local tax or funding player protection. For the platforms, the map is narrowing to the US and a handful of open Latin American markets.
