US NFL Betting Handle Growth Flatlines As Germany Holds Steady
The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects Americans to legally wager $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial online betting sites, a rise of just 0.3% on last season's $29.4 billion.
The trade body's September 4, 2026, estimate marks the first NFL season since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018 to show essentially no year-over-year growth in legal handle.
AGA president and chief executive Bill Miller pointed to the rise of prediction markets as the main reason. "We're excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favourite teams," he said.
"Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalised sports betting has seen tremendous growth. But this year is different.
Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called 'prediction markets,' the growth of legal handle has stalled."
The AGA's estimate is based on handle growth recorded so far in 2026 applied to last season's total, combined with football-specific reporting from selected states, and covers preseason games, futures booked as early as March, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
Other forecasters see the picture slightly differently: H2 Gambling Capital projects a 0.8% decline in regulated NFL handle, even as it estimates underlying demand is growing by around 4%, while Citizens Equity Research projects roughly 5% growth in regulated football wagering, using a broader definition that includes college football.
Germany Shows Different Pattern
Outside the US, the picture looks less volatile. Data Tipico gave to Gambling Insider shows the NFL has ranked as the fifth largest sport by betting turnover at the operator in Germany in each of the past five seasons, a remarkably stable position for a sport that is not native to the market.
"The German games are therefore increasingly powerful individual betting events, but have not yet produced a measurable long-term increase in betting activity across the entire NFL season."
The Super Bowl remains the outlier. Tipico said it is typically the single most-bet event of the day it takes place and ranks as the second- or third-largest sport by turnover on Super Bowl Sunday, generating volumes comparable to a leading Bundesliga fixture such as Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund.
While You Are Here, Why Not Check Out Our: Casino Games Hub & Free Slots?
Super Bowl turnover runs at roughly ten times that of a playoff game and around 30 times an average regular season matchup, Tipico said, while average regular season turnover has stayed broadly stable over the past five years, dipping slightly last season.
The clearest growth tip comes from the NFL's own regular-season games in Germany.
The league's first game staged in Germany in 2022 generated around 2.5 times the turnover of an average NFL matchup.
That multiple rose to 3.3 times in 2024 and 3.7 times in 2025, evidence that the NFL's international game strategy is building real betting interest around individual fixtures even if it has not yet lifted turnover across the wider season.
What It Means For Bettors
For American bettors, a flattening legal handle does not mean less interest in NFL betting overall.
It means a growing share of that interest is migrating to prediction market platforms that operate outside standard state licensing, a trend regulators in several states are already scrutinising.
For European bettors, and especially in Germany, the data points to a settled, mature market where the NFL has found a durable but modest place among core sports, rather than a fast-growing new vertical.
Watch for the AGA to publish updated in-season handle figures once the playoffs begin, along with any initial responses from state regulators to the growth in prediction markets.
