Coral Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Coral Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 CORAL CUP TRENDS

  • Won 2-5 hurdle races, the majority winning only 2-3
  • Not won more than two handicap hurdles
  • Carrying at least 2lb less than top weight
  • Officially rated 140+
  • Not favourite

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Coral Cup?

Last season's Coral Cup trends shortlist was not far off pinpointing the full frame in one of Cheltenham's trickiest betting heats.

Third Ballyandy and fourth Brio Conti fitted the Coral Cup trends well; they were rated over 140, carrying decent weights, had not won more than three hurdles, and had not won more than two handicap hurdles - putting them on the right exposure level.

The trends negative for both was their very recent runs - just 20 days ago - and the fact they had each won a chase; that's alien to the profile of a Coral Cup winner.

They were the top two picks, but 5th Canardier also made the list. He was a course-and-distance winner with all the hallmarks of a Coral Cup winner, the one concern was that his best form was on good ground, which it was not at Cheltenham.

Our final trends tips was Scarpeta, boasting a good break since her last run, only one run since a victory, and just two hurdle wins. She had not been tried in handicap hurdle company, but had extensive handicap experience on the Flat.

The big query was the distance, which seemed short of her best already, and even more so when she won won over just shy of 3m 10 days after finishing 14th at Cheltenham.

The winner William Henry had been shortlisted on trends in 2018, and finished fourth as the only trends pick to make the frame. It was hard to discount him in 2019, given he was racing off the same handicap mark of 151 and had never finished out of the first four at Cheltenham.

However, it was also hard to add him to the trends shortlist because he had not won that season and was carrying plenty of weight at 11st 12lb. He had also just had a wind operation, and there are always concerns as to how that will affect performance.

Certainly on 'Place Trends' and past Cheltenham record, William Henry was respected and tentatively tipped.


KEY CORAL CUP TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Had not won more than 2 handicap hurdles
  • Had won 2-5 hurdle races, the majority winning only 2-3
  • Were not the favourite in the betting
  • Had last run at least 18 days ago, all bar Monkherhostin having atleast a 24-day break

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were aged between five and eight
  • Last ran in a hurdle or handicap hurdle
  • Carried at least 2lb less than top weight
  • Had won 2-4 hurdle races
  • Featured fourth or lower in the weights
  • Had never won a chase
  • Had never won a Grade 1

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 139+, eight being rated 140 or more
  • Carried at least 6lbs less than top weight
  • Had run at least five times over hurdles
  • Last ran 24-77 days ago
  • Won one of their last three starts

Eight of the last 10 winners...

  • Carried 11st 2lb or more to victory
  • Had run at Cheltenham before - three winning
  • Had run over at least 2m4f before - 7 winning
  • Had never run over fences before
  • Had never won a Grade 2 - two had won 1

Seven of the last 10 winners...

  • Won 1 race that season. The rest won none.
  • Had run 3-4 times that season, the exceptions ran once

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first two in one of their last 6 starts (across all codes of racing)
  • Had not run for at least 16 days

39/40 placed horses

  • Had run at least twice in the past 12 months

38/40 placed horses

  • Had run no more than four times since last finishing in the first two

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Coral Cup)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Betfair Hurdle (G3)NewburySpirit River (2010)Blazer (2016), Activial (2015), Smashing (2014), Get Me Out Of Here (2012), Bothy (2011)
Welsh Champion Hurdle (G2)Ffos LasWhisper (2014), Medinas (2013)None
Coral Hurdle (Grade B)LeopardstownBleu Berry (2018)None
National Spirit Hurdle (G2)SandownNoneUbak (2016), Meister Eckhart (2013)
Heroes Handicap Hurdle (G3)SandownNoneTopofthegame (2018)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Nicky Henderson333927.002
Gordon Elliott1521315.003
Willie Mullins3313-12.004
Alan King141720.002
Paul Nicholls1417-4.001

How William Henry Won The 2019 Coral Cup

Course specialist William Henry finally got his Cheltenham Festival victory in the 2019 Coral Cup, causing a 28/1 upset in the 2m5f handicap hurdle.

He had started 8/1 joint favourite 12 months earlier, after winning the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton in January, but found three too good that day. Trainer Nicky Henderson ran the five-time winner only twice more in 2018, giving him a wind operation at the end of the year after he pulled up at Wincanton.


2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2019 CORAL CUP RESULT

  1. William Henry 28/1
  2. Wicklow Brave 28/1
  3. Ballyandy 14/1
  4. Brio Conti 10/1

The cheekpieces tried for the first time in the 2018 Coral Cup, were again applied in 2019, as the now nine-year-old lined up under a huge 11st 10lb. He had a new jockey in Nico De Boinville, but the same handicap rating at 151, and this time made no mistake.

Buried deep within the remaining pack at the last hurdle, William Henry chased down topweight Wicklow Brave all the way up the hill to win by a short-head, Ballyandy taking third half a length behind, and Brio Conti finishing fourth.

 


Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 - Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper

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