Coral Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Coral Cup Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

BEST 2021 CORAL CUP TRENDS

  • Won 2-5 hurdle races, the majority winning only 2-3
  • Not won more than two handicap hurdles
  • Not run more than four times that season
  • Officially rated 140+
  • Not favourite

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Coral Cup? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this 2m5f handicap hurdle, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Coral Cup. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of the key Coral Cup trends to follow, beyond the top five.


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Did Trends Win Last Year's Coral Cup?

Last season's Coral Cup trends shortlist was not far off pinpointing the full frame in one of Cheltenham's trickiest betting heats.

First Dame De Compagnie and second Black Tears fitted the Coral Cup trends well; they were rated over 140, carrying decent weights, had not won more than three hurdles, and had not won more than two handicap hurdles - putting them on the right exposure level.

The trends negative for the winner was that she was favourite - the form of the last 10 favourites read: 7400350200 - but that was easily over-looked as she was trained by top race trainer Nicky Henderson, and had the bonus of winning two of her four outings at Cheltenham.

Fourth Thosedaysaregone had won a 'Key Race' last time out and ticked all the Top 5 trends criteria except his rating being 139 instead of 140. He had also won a chase, which is an alien concept for Coral Cup winners.

Nevertheless he was another clear trends pick, as was fifth-placed Honest Vic, who was rated 140, had won last time out, had the right level of experience, and had finished fifth at Cheltenham previously.

The final selection on trends was Top Moon, a two-time hurdle winner, who had recently won a 2m4f handicap hurdle. He finished down the field last time out, behind Thosedaysaregone, but looked to have the right exposure.

Ridden by Mark Walsh, the five-year-old made much of the running, in a change to regular racing tactics, and paid the price later, weakening to finish in 20th position.

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KEY CORAL CUP TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Had not won more than 2 handicap hurdles
  • Had won 2-5 hurdle races, the majority winning only 2-3
  • Had last run at least 18 days ago, all bar Monkherhostin having at least a 24-day break

14 of the last 15 winners…

  • Were not the favourite in the betting; exception Dame De Compagnie (2020)

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had won 2-4 hurdle races
  • Were aged between five and eight
  • Last ran in a hurdle or handicap hurdle
  • Carried at least 2lb less than top weight
  • Had won no more than once that season, if at all
  • Had run no more than four times that season
  • Had never won a chase
  • Had never won a Grade 1

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 139+, eight being rated 140 or more
  • Had run at least six times over hurdles
  • Last ran 24-88 days ago
  • Won one of their last three starts

Eight of the last 10 winners...

  • Had run at Cheltenham before - three winning
  • Had run over at least 2m4f before - 7 winning
  • Had never run over fences before
  • Had never won a Grade 2 - two had won 1

Seven of the last 10 winners...

  • Carried 11st 2lb or more to victory

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first two in one of their last 6 starts (across all codes of racing)
  • Had not run for at least 16 days

39/40 placed horses

  • Had run at least twice in the past 12 months

38/40 placed horses

  • Had run no more than four times since last finishing in the first two


KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Coral Cup)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Betfair Hurdle (G3)NewburyNoneBlazer (2016), Activial (2015), Smashing (2014), Get Me Out Of Here (2012), Bothy (2011)
Welsh Champion Hurdle (G2)Ffos LasWhisper (2014), Medinas (2013)None
Ladbrokes Hurdle (Grade B)LeopardstownBleu Berry (2018)Thosedaysaregone (2020)
National Spirit Hurdle (G2)SandownNoneUbak (2016), Meister Eckhart (2013)
Heroes Handicap Hurdle (G3)SandownNoneTopofthegame (2018)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Nicky Henderson323920.002
Gordon Elliott1721213.005
Willie Mullins3713-16.004
Alan King111923.002
Paul Nicholls1318-3.001

How Dame De Campagnie Won The 2020 Coral Cup

Under a text-book ride by Barry Geraghty, Dame De Compagnie was shaken up to lead at the last hurdle, and went on to become the Coral Cup's first winning favourite in 17 years.

Not since Xenophon in 2003 had a favourite won the race, with only four favourites since then managing to be place in this notoriously-tricky Cheltenham Festival handicap.


2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2020 CORAL CUP RESULT

  1. Dame De Compagnie 5/1f
  2. Black Tears 12/1
  3. Thosedaysaregone 12/1
  4. Cracking Smart 33/1

The JP McManus-owned mare beat fellow female Black Tearsby two and a quarter lengths, Thosedaysaregone taking third under 3lb-claimer Kevin Brouder.

Cracking Smart's fourth position gave Ireland a 2-3-4, the victory going to Nicky Henderson for the fourth time in 11 renewals.

 


Cheltenham 2021 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Festival Novices' Chase

14:50 - Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

17:30 Champion Bumper

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