Pick 6: NFL Betting Picks for Week 6

Charlie Mullan

October 8th, 2021

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Welcome to the home of NFL betting tips on Gambling.com - where you can find NFL betting picks updated weekly ahead of the weekend's games. We've done the research, gone through the NFL betting lines for this week and selected some of the best bets across all of the available markets with the best NFL betting sites

NFL expert Charlie Mullan has looked at the statistics in detail and provided his six tips below. We've also called upon former Pro Bowler and Gambling.com ambassador Shawne Merriman for his Week 6 predictions.

Quick Picks

• Jets at Falcons - under 9.5 first quarter points - 3/4 with Betfair
• Titans to score over 26.5 points - 20/23 with William Hill
• Vikings to lead by 1-6 points at half-time - 16/5 with William Hill
• Steelers to lead the Broncos at half-time - 1/1 with William Hill
• Dallas to score first and beat the Giants - 21/20 with bet365
• Both Bills and Chiefs to score 25+ points - 11/8 with Betfair

After four weeks of the season, the Arizona Cardinals are the only team with a 100 per cent record after beating the Rams 37-20 at SoFi Stadium, the venue for Super Bowl LVI in February. Could the Cardinals be the NFC’s representatives in the championship game? Their odds have been slashed from 40/1 in pre-season to 14/1, which still offers great value as the Super Bowl betting market fluctuates from one week to the next. 

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has emerged as the 5/1 favourite in the MVP betting market after a brilliant start to the season. But he faces stiff competition from Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Buffalo’s Josh Allen - who go head-to-head this weekend. 

The Chiefs remain 11/2 favourites to lift their second Vince Lombardi trophy in three seasons even though they start week 5 with a 2-2 record. This weekend, their match-up with the Bills, who are 8/1 to win their first ever Super Bowl title, will give us a better indication as to which of these two teams might be crowned AFC champions.

Jacksonville and Detroit remain the only teams in the NFL without a win. They will both hope to address that this weekend as the Jaguars go up against the Titans and the Lions travel to face the Vikings. The Jets and Falcons, both with 1-3 records, mark the return of NFL games in London as they battle it out at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.

New York Jets v Atlanta Falcons

Charlie Mullan: The NFL's International Series returns to London after a one-year absence due to Covid as the Jets and Falcons go head-to-head at. Both teams are 1-3 and they will hope that a change of venue will spark a turnaround in form.

The Jets finally covered the spread for the first time this season when they beat the Titans in overtime as six-point underdogs. Atlanta have been just as unreliable in NFL betting against the spread. They covered it only once - back in week 3 - when they beat the Giants 17-14 after coming into the game as 2.5-point underdogs.

The Jets have been slow starters this season, allowing their opponents to score first in each of their four contests. Atlanta scored first in two of their games against Philadelphia and Washington but went on to lose. both of these two struggling sides have only managed to score field goals and no touchdowns in the opening 15 minutes. Can the Jets finally score before the first quarter ends? Under 9.5 first quarter points is 3/4 with Betfair.

Shawne Merriman Predicts the Winner: I’m taking the Falcons. They got fight. I mean, that’s pretty much it, that they’re willing to fight. I didn’t see anything to say that they will turn their season around. All they showed me is that they’re willing to fight and not cave in.

But Atlanta should have beaten Washington, and I think they will beat the Jets.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans

CM: The Jaguars are still without a win this season and the pressure on head coach Urban Meyer continues to grow not for his actions off the pitch. The results on the pitch have not been great, but the only time they trailed to the Bengals last week was when Cincinnati kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired. 

Jacksonville finally covered the spread last week for the first time this season when they were 7.5-point underdogs against the Bengals. This weekend, the Jaguars are 4.5-point underdogs at home to the Titans who are 2-2. The Titans already gave the Jets their first win of the season last week when they were six-point favourites and they will not want to give the Jaguars their first win of the year. 

Tennessee have been taken to overtime twice and they will hope to avoid that this weekend and win in a more comfortable manner. They score an average of 23.8 points per game and the Jaguars give up an average of 28.8 points. Tennessee are 20/23 with William Hill to score over 26.5 points. 

SM's Winner Prediction: I’m going Titans. Sad to say, but I don’t know if Urban Meyer finishes the season.

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Minnesota Vikings v Detroit Lions

CM: When Dan Campbell became Lions head coach in the off-season he promised his team would be tough to beat in an opening speech that referenced ‘biting the kneecaps’ of their opponents. After four losses, the Lions look toothless. The Vikings have looked good at times this season but are 1-3 entering this game. 

All three of the Vikings’ losses have been one-possession games with a combined deficit of 11 points. The one game the Vikings have won was at home to the Seahawks when they conceded the game's first points. In each of the other three games, they have scored first but gone on to lose. Minnesota were one of the worst teams against the spread last season but are 2-2 ATS so far this year. The Lions are also 2-2 against the spread after losing 24-14 to the Bears. 

If Kirk Cousins can get his Vikings offence clicking early on, then this should be a straightforward win for Minnesota. Detroit have not scored a first half point in their last two games and they have conceded 48 points in the second quarter alone. Minnesota have only given up three points in the second half of their last two games, which does not bode well for Detroit. Minnesota are 16/5 with William Hill to lead by 1-6 points at half-time.

SM's Winner Prediction: I’m taking the Vikings. The Lions are another team that will keep fighting and not roll over, but they’re a young team.

Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers

CM: After three straight defeats, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger looks to be living on borrowed time in Pittsburgh. Head coach Mike Tomlin has some big decisions to make if he is to maintain his incredible record of never having a losing record in his 14 seasons as Steelers head coach. At 1-3, the Steelers need to beat Denver in Pittsburgh to keep their season alive. 

Pittsburgh were favourites to beat the Raiders and Bengals in weeks two and three but they fell to both. Last week they were six-point underdogs and were beaten 27-17 in Green Bay. The Broncos, on the other hand, are becoming a safe bet in the NFL. They are 3-1 against the spread this season, but they were favourites to beat the Giants, Jaguars and Jets who were 0-9 after the first three weeks. 

The Steelers are a team built to perform better when they are winning. Unfortunately, they have been playing catch-up football for much of the season - which puts the pressure on 39-year-old. Their running game needs to improve and if the Steelers can take control of this game early on, they could silence a few doubters. Pittsburgh are 1/1 with William Hill to lead the Broncos at half-time.

SM's Winner Prediction: Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) is not going to practice this week, so I will take the Steelers.

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Dallas Cowboys v New York Giants

The Giants claimed their first win of the season with a 27-21 victory over the Saints, thanks to Saquon Barkley's walk-off touchdown run. The win will have boosted confidence within the Giants camp, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep up with Dallas' high-octane offence. Three of the four games the Cowboys have played have seen 60 points or more scored. That is testament to their offence but also highlights the deficiencies in their defence.

Against the spread, Dallas have been the safest team to back, covering in all four games. They were 4.5-point favourites against the Panthers last week and managed to hold on to win 36-28 in Arlington. The Giants were underdogs by seven points last week when the Saints played their delayed home opener following Hurricane Ida, but they covered comfortably. 

Dallas look favourites to win the NFC East. With quarterback Dak Prescott back to his best and their defence gradually showing signs of improvement, they should get the better of the Giants in Texas. Dallas have opened the scoring in their last three games and have rattled up a total of 42 first quarter points so far this season. The Cowboys are 1/1 with Betfair to open the scoring and win against the Giants.

SM's Winner Prediction: Going with Dallas. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is going to get a head-coaching job somewhere. They’re consistently throwing 30-plus points a game, and that’s hard to beat for anybody at that point.

This is the best we've ever seen Dak (Prescott) play, in my opinion, consistently. As long as Dallas keeps putting up points like this, they’re going to beat a lot of people.

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Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs

Get the popcorn ready for what has the potential to be the best game of the week, if not the season. Sunday's showdown between the Bills and the Chiefs at Arrowhead is a repeat of the AFC Championship game last season which Kansas City won 38-24. The Chiefs had home-field advantage for that game and this will be a great indication as to how far Buffalo has come since that loss. 

Buffalo remain the only team in the AFC to have scored first in all four of their games. They are 3-1 against the spread this season. The Bills started their home game with Houston as 19-point favourites - the biggest spread of the season so far, and they smashed that to win 40-0.

The Chiefs have not been at their best and covered the spread (seven points) for the first time this season in a 42-30 win over Philadelphia last week.

What we can expect here is points. The Chiefs have scored 24 points or more in all four of their games but their defence gave up 29 points or more in every game also. Since dropping their opener, Buffalo have scored 35 points or more in their last three games - two of which have been shut-outs. The Bills have led at the half in all four games this season and they will need a lead if they are to contain the Chiefs - who have outscored their opponents 45-10 in the third quarter. Both Bills and Chiefs to score 25+ points is 11/8 with Betfair.

SM's Winner Prediction: I’m going with the Bills. The (Chiefs) aren’t stopping anyone on defence. They’re another one who will put up points, and you have to accept that, but it’s about whether they can stop anyone on the defensive side of the ball.