US Governor Elections Odds: A Quartet Of Competitive Betting Heats

A fortnight out from the US midterm elections, the odds on betting apps show clear, consistent signals. Donald Trump’s Republican Party are on course for a beating. 

The Democrats are now a best-priced 1/11 to win the U.S. House of Representatives and 8/15 to win control of the U.S. Senate.

These congressional contests are sure to dominate attention because they are nationwide and have immediate implications for Trump and his agenda. 

However don’t overlook the 36 gubernatorial races taking place concurrently. Betfred and Ladbrokes are both offering odds on the full list. Here’s four of particular interest.

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Georgia

One should never assume gubernatorial and congressional races will directly correlate. Despite the ultra-divided, partisan nature of US politics, ‘split-ticket’ voting is commonplace as illustrated by Georgia’s Senate and Governor races.

In the Senate race, incumbent Jon Ossoff is a 1/33 chance and looking at a potential double-digit victory. Whereas his fellow Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is the slight outsider at 10/11 in her race against Rick Jackson. It isn’t easy to make a case for backing ‘KLB’, the former Mayor of Atlanta, at those odds on the basis of history. Georgia hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1998. 

Stacey Abrams - another prominent black, female Democrat - lost the two previous gubernatorial elections. However during the same period, they did gain both Senate seats, in very close races. In a nationwide, ‘Blue Wave’, environment, a historic gain is not impossible.

One serious negative for KLB is cash. Her opponent has outspent her 20:1 and has six times as much cash in hand. That may partly explain why Jackson is ahead in the polls, even at a time when Republicans are struggling pretty much everywhere.

There could be a significant knock-on effect for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. Were Ossoff to run and become either president or vice-president, the state governor would get to choose his replacement. If Jackson wins, senior Democrats may urge Ossoff to stay out.

Ohio

The Trump era has seen the Republican agenda transformed and with it, a re-alignment of voters, especially around race, class and education levels. One of the most ‘Trumpy’ of states is Ohio.

Electoral gravity means that if and when that re-alignment unwinds, the effect will be most dramatic in the areas which have swung the furthest. Polling implies that is precisely the case in Ohio, which was a swing state before Trump, won by Obama in 2012.

Former Senator Sherrod Brown is ahead in the polls and the odds-on favourite to regain the seat for the Democrats and their gubernatorial candidate, Amy Acton, is surging ahead by nearly 5%. 

That may have something to do with Vivek Ramaswamy being a terrible candidate. A billionaire financier, long accused of a pump and dump scam involving an Alzheimers drug, Ramaswamy’s campaign is something of a car crash.

Nevada

Perhaps the hardest race to call. Both incumbent Joe Lombardo (Republican) and challenger Aaron Ford (Democrat) can be backed at even money.  

The polls can’t split them, with neither anywhere near 50% on average. In fairness there haven’t been many of late and Lombardo was well ahead in the summer. One factor which might swing it for the Democrats is the wider swing in their favour from Latinos. 

Nevada elections have a tendency to be very close and this is no exception.

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Texas

With Latino turnout trends in mind, this race could be the story of the night, producing a potential shock that would supersede even the Senate races. 

The Latino swing has helped propel James Talarico ahead in polls and early voting estimates, making him clear favourite for the Senate. Could reliably red Texas also be about to elect a Latina Democrat as governor?

Incumbent Greg Abbott retains an average poll lead around 2% and is a hot favourite on betting sites at odds of 1/4, compared to 3/1 for Hinojosa. As elsewhere, the Republican also enjoys a big cash advantage.

Nevertheless, Hinojosa has hit 49% in some recent polls and victory would be well within the range of a standard polling miss. The main reason why polls are wrong is differential turnout, where one side is significantly better motivated than the other.

That seems clearly the case for Democrats across America, as one would expect for any mid-term opposition but especially this year, against a now deeply unpopular Trump. The trend seems more stark among Latinos, and Talarico’s confident, impressive campaign might help Hinojosa up. This upset is not implausible.