AFL Betting Tips 2025: Grand Final Best Bets And Betting Trends
A new chapter in Grand Final history will be written when Geelong meets the Brisbane Lions in the decider for the first time, having not even played a single decider against Fitzroy across 100 years of V/AFL competition!
Geelong had a poor start to the season by their lofty standards with a 5-4 record after nine games, but have warmed up and accelerated like a race car throughout the second half of the year.
They have taken full advantage of a soft run to the finals to ensure they are in imperious scoring form at the perfect time of year.
Our super preview for this year’s Grand Final will feature six recommended bets to keep you invested in the last game of the year from start to finish and has some excellent odds from Australia’s best betting apps.
AFL Grand Final Predictions:
- Over 170.5 Total Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
- Brisbane +12.5 - 1.90 With Picklebet
- Either Team To Win By Under 24.5 Points - 1.83 With Betr
- Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals - 1.68 With Ladbrokes
- Hugh McCluggage 25+ Disposals - 2.45 With Bet365
- Shaun Mannagh 2+ Goals - 2.75 With Unibet
Geelong Vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday, 2:30pm AEST)
The Cats are on an almost unprecedented scoring run, piling on 100+ points in eight straight games, which is the second-longest such streak in the club’s history.
Little wonder that they won all eight games, especially with some high-quality players such as Jack Henry, Sam De Koning and the ever-irritating but effective Connor O’Sullivan manning the back three.
Tom Stewart was also an instrumental defensive operator when the Cats tore Brisbane apart at the MCG during the qualifying finals, but his heartbreaking absence through concussion should give the Lions a little bit of assistance in defending their Premiership crown.
It may also see the total points exceed 170.5 with Geelong’s games averaging a hefty 180 total points in 2025 because of their enormous and prolific scoring, and with that in mind it comes as little surprise that nine of their last 10 matches saw 171+ total points.
Geelong’s last six finals matches also cleared the total points handicap so we will very confidently be backing the ‘overs’ in addition to Brisbane covering the +12.5 point handicap.
We trust that Chris Fagan has figured out how to improve significantly on the qualifying-final loss.
Selection 1: Over 170.5 Total Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Brisbane have played their best footy with their backs to the wall, winning five of their seven games as underdogs this year after last week’s clutch finish against Collingwood, whilst they covered the line in 16 of their last 17 games as outsiders whether winning or losing.
This team already knows how to win on the last Saturday in September, but we will stop a fraction short of declaring them victors against a very impressive Geelong side.
Selection 2: Brisbane +12.5 - 1.90 With Picklebet
Whilst the third pick is not necessarily a tip as such, consider it a recommendation for those of you who are expecting a close game, but perhaps are not familiar with the multitude of markets offered by Australian bookmakers on any single AFL game.
Referred to as a ‘tri-bet’ or a ‘winning margin’ market, there are many sites that will allow you to back one team to exceed a certain winning margin such as 16.5 points, or 24.5 points or alternately back either team to win by less than said margin.
We have found a great price of 1.83 on Betr for either team to win the Grand Final by less than 24.5 points.
This allows you the luxury of sitting back and just hoping for an enthralling contest regardless of who triumphs. It is an option certainly worth considering.
Selection 3: Either Team To Win By Under 24.5 Points - 1.83 With Betr
Lions veteran defender Dayne Zorko will, all things going to plan, join five of his team-mates to become the first group of players to start 27 matches in back-to-back seasons.
It is an incredible testament to the 36-year-old’s longevity and reliability that he has been able to see through 54 games in two years and he needs 29 disposals in this Grand Final to complete his best-ever year in terms of both total and average possessions in one season.
He has averaged 26 disposals per game in both 2024 and 2025, thanks in part to his role as the main man for kick-ins from the defensive goal square, and with Geelong likely to be heavy scorers, he should be racking up quite a few kicks this weekend.
Back him to clear 25+ disposals for a 16th time this year.
Joining him on 25+ this weekend should be Lions centre Hugh McCluggage, who has played a massive role in their run to the big dance with 33 touches against Gold Coast and 37 against Collingwood last week.
That means he is on a run of securing 27+ disposals in eight of his last nine games, though there is one glaring exception that cannot be ignored.
Perhaps the reason you can get much better than Evens for a 25+ count this week is that the Cats - well, Oisin Mullin to be precise - kept him to a season-low tally of just 14 disposals in the qualifying final.
McCluggage has been taking advice from team-mate Lachie Neale as well as Lions mentor Trent Cotchin about dealing with taggers, having faced several throughout 2025.
He is insistent that he has learned some valuable lessons from three weeks ago. We are willing to give him another chance at a good price.
Finally, we will sign off for 2025 by picking another man to make amends for a quiet qualifying final in the form of Geelong’s Shaun Mannagh, who went goalless against the Lions three weeks ago whilst the likes of Cameron and Neale dominated the Brisbane defence.
Surrounding that, Mannagh booted 2+ goals in the other four of his last five games. Geelong’s success will rest on changing up their gameplan and Chris Scott could unlock Mannagh’s best here.
Given he has a 45% success rate of kicking 2+ goals this year, 2.75 at Unibet looks to be a nice price for a speculative throw at the dartboard.
Best of luck and we will see you in 2026.
