Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2023?

Date IconLast Updated : 12 Sep 2023
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Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2023?
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Betting sites are seeing plenty of interest in their 2023 Ballon d’Or odds ahead of this year's ceremony on October 30.

The long-running prize, which has been in existence since 1956, was previously awarded to the footballer with the highest level of performance over the preceding calendar year. 

However, organisers have recently switched their focus to the previous season. 

That means this year’s prize will go to the player judged to have been better than the rest of his peers throughout the 2022/23 campaign. 

Now that we've ticked over into a new campaign, there is nothing more the contenders can do to strengthen their case.

Let’s take a look at the latest Ballon d'Or betting odds, before considering who might win the honour this year.

Ballon d'Or Odds 2023

Lionel Messi1.08Bet365
Erling Haaland7.5Bet365
Vinicius Jr50Bet365
Kevin De Bruyne50Bet365
Ilkay Gundogan66Bet365
Kylian Mbappe66Bet365
Karim Benzema80Bet365

Messi Odds-On Favourite To Scoop Prize Again

Lionel Messi has already won the Ballon d’Or more than any other player in the history of the game, winning the accolade seven times.

The Argentina international triumphed in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2021, and he is the odds-on favourite at 1.08 with football betting sites to add another award to his record-breaking collection later this year.  

As things stand, Messi is expected to come out on top because he inspired his country to glory at the World Cup in Qatar, the most significant event of the 2022/23 season. 

Messi was named Player of the Tournament after scoring seven goals and providing three assists for Argentina, who were crowned world champions for the first time since 1986.

The legendary player completed a move to Inter Miami in the summer, and the Argentinian has hit the ground running, helping his side to lift the Leagues Cup in his first month at the club.

Haaland’s Goals Put Him In Frame For The Award

Erling Haaland hair

Erling Haaland had an extraordinary first season at Manchester City. 

The Norway international shattered a whole host of goalscoring records in the Premier League after firing Pep Guardiola’s side to their fifth title in the last six years.

Haaland's odds in the Ballon d'Or betting stand at 7.5 after City completed an incredible treble of Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup. 

Much of that is owed to Haaland's haul of 52 goals in 53 games, although a return of just one goal in his final eight games of the season will not have helped his case for a first Ballon d'Or. That means Messi holds a major upper hand for now. 

De Bruyne Odds Shorten Following Treble Success

Kevin De Bruyne was a key player in Man City's greatest ever season, but it will be difficult for the Belgium international to outshine Haaland when it comes to the Ballon d'Or award.

De Bruyne came third last year but is an outsider at 50 with bookies this time around.

However, that price with has since lengthened from the initial 33 offered, and De Bruyne looks like he could miss out on a podium finish.

The 31-year-old has been one of the best performers in both the Champions League and Premier League over the past few seasons, but yet again he looks as though he will fall short when it comes to the Ballon d'Or.

Elsewhere, you'll find his former Manchester City team-mate Ilkay Gundogan as a 66 outside chance, following his influential campaign with the Premier League champions.

Vinicius Junior's Ballon d'Or Chances

Brazilian winger Vinicius Junior has been making waves in the footballing world and his current Ballon d’Or betting odds of 50 suggest he is a rank outsider this year.

His journey with Real Madrid has been marked by significant growth and consistent improvement year-on-year. The 23-year-old showcased his mesmerising dribbling skills, explosive speed and goal-scoring prowess last season. 

However, despite his undeniable progress, Vinicius Junior may have to wait for his first Ballon d'Or title as his chances for this year's prize appear slim.

The competition for the award is always fierce, with more established stars like Messi and Haaland favoured to claim the top two spots.  

While Vinicius Junior's betting odds indicate that some exchange betting sites recognise his potential, finishing in the top three is about the best he can hope for.

Mbappe Ballon d'Or Hopes Fade 

Kylian Mbappe was unfortunate to end up on the losing side in the World Cup final. 

The French superstar scored a stunning hat-trick against Argentina, then converted his penalty in the shoot-out, but it was not quite enough for Didier Deschamps’ side to avoid defeat.

So close, but yet so far, and France's failure ultimately leaves him well out of the running in the Ballon d'Or. Had Les Bleus got over the line in Qatar, Mbappe would more than likely be the favourite for this prize. 

PSG then bowed out of the Champions League rather tamely, leaving Mbappe's odds way off the mark at 66 currently.  

It appeared as though Mbappe would be seeking new pastures for the 2023/24 season, however the Frenchman is staying put at PSG following the closure of the transfer window.

Benzema Huge Outsider To Retain Ballon d’Or

Karim Benzema was deservedly chosen as the 2022 Ballon d’Or winner after a superb season for Real Madrid, but he will find it tough to follow in the footsteps of Johan Cruyff, Kevin Keegan, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, Michel Platini, Marco van Basten, Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi, all of whom claimed the prize in back-to-back years. 

Benzema was hampered by injuries in his final season at Madrid and missed the World Cup as a result. 

He came into form towards the end of this season, but his Ballon d'Or hopes effectively ended when Madrid were dumped out of the Champions League last four. 

Benzema moved to Saudi side Al-Ittihad on July 1, so he's unlikely to get a look in come the Ballon d'Or ceremony in October, hence odds of 80.