AFL Betting Tips Round 21: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 21 Predictions:
- Richmond to win - 2.3 With Bet365
- West Coast +50.5 points - 1.9 With PlayUp
- Melbourne -42.5 points - 1.9 With Bluebet
- St Kilda-Carlton Under 164.5 points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
The month of August can mean only one thing: the pointy end of an AFL season! The competition got a bit of a shake-up last week when the top three clubs all suffered surprise losses, whilst the Western Bulldogs plummeted from fifth to eighth when they too were on the wrong end of a shock result.
After a scan of our favourite AFL betting sites for Round 21, we fancy the Dogs will depart the eight at the hands of one club this week, and with one win separating them and 14th-placed Gold Coast Suns at the start of the round, the competition for the last few remaining finals spots will be nothing short of intense.
Without further ado, here are the four games that most caught our eye from a wagering perspective.
Western Bulldogs v Richmond Tigers, Friday, 7.50pm (AEST)
The Western Bulldogs (W10 L9) retain favouritism with exchange betting sites for this Friday night clash under the roof despite going down in three of their last four games, including twice against clubs that were below them on the ladder before the ball was bounced.
Their 50% success rate as home favourites (W3 L3) this year, whilst it might not sound dire, is now one of the worst in the league and well below the all-encompassing season average of 70% (for all teams occupying the home dressing rooms including at neutral venues).
In fact, the Bulldogs have lost four of their last five fixtures as the home side of the day, including against Port Adelaide and Geelong in June. Time is running out to prove themselves worthy of September action and their games in August against the Richmond Tigers (W9 D1 L9) and Geelong will be decisive.
Richmond’s stocks, on the other hand, are rising in the medium-term despite blowing a half-time lead against Melbourne last weekend. Prior to that, they had won six straight games against clubs outside the top four and should therefore be confident of bouncing back immediately.
There perhaps is not a matchup quite like the Bulldogs and Tigers that has been more favourable for the underdog in recent years: not only have seven of the last 10 head-to-heads been won by the pre-match outsider, the remaining three saw the winning favourites fail to cover the line.
Aaron Naughton has been kept to a single goal in each of his last two outings but rarely has three quiet games in a row and has accumulated 13 from his last four games against the Tigers. He could be the one who leads the charge for the Bulldogs.
Best Bet: Richmond to win - 2.3 With Bet365
Player Prop: Aaron Naughton to kick 3+ goals - 2.5 With Unibet
Essendon Bombers v West Coast Eagles, Saturday, 1.45pm (AEST)
The Essendon Bombers (W9 L10) are in a similar predicament to the Bulldogs, where their time to hold onto a finals place is quickly running out due to some poor recent form.
Their last six weeks have seen them concede an average of 97 points, including exactly 97 in the sole win during that period (against Adelaide), leaving an awful lot of pressure on a midfield that is struggling to create attacking chances and shots at goal.
On that basis, it’s hard to make a case for them repeating (let alone improving upon) their 50-point win away to the West Coast Eagles (W2 L17) in late May (96-46), even if adding a couple of extra goals to their score for playing at home.
The Eagles have shown some glimpses of improvement since then, taking St Kilda the full distance in early July before securing that breakthrough win against North Melbourne last round.
Their four visits to Marvel Stadium since the start of 2022 have resulted in two narrow defeats to the Kangaroos and a win over Collingwood last year, and with Jeremy McGovern and Elliot Yeo set to return to the starting lineup, a respectable performance against a sluggish opposition should ensue.
After it paid off for us once again last week, we’re sticking with the tried and tested method of Kyle Langford kicking a bag of goals under the roof: he now has 20 goals from six games at Marvel Stadium in 2023.
Best Bet: West Coast +50.5 - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Kyle Langford to kick 3+ goals - 1.92 With Ladbrokes
North Melbourne v Melbourne Demons, Sunday, 1.10pm (AEST)
After sinking to a new low last week with a humiliating loss to West Coast, North Melbourne (W2 L17) have to endure one final flight for 2023, this time to their ‘second home’ of Hobart for the third time this year.
Their most notable in is regular head coach Alastair Clarkson, who this week returned to work after some time away from the game for personal reasons. But he’s got a lot of problems to solve with a playing squad that is scoring 68 and conceding 101 points per game on average this season.
If the surroundings of Blundstone Arena are going to be any kind of inspiration, the Roos are going to have to forget about their recent history there, where they have shipped at least 100 points in six consecutive losses since 2022 by an average margin of 55 points.
Whilst the Melbourne Demons (W13 L6) haven’t won by anything close to a 40-point margin since early May, they do have five 40+ point victories to their name this year, and most of them have been against the worst teams of the competition: 63 points against the Eagles, 54 over Hawthorn and 90 the last time they met North Melbourne in late April.
As the only top four club to win last week, and with their goalkicking woes now well and truly behind them (62.39 in their four consecutive wins), they’re primed to treat a rock-bottom Roos side with disdain.
Jake Melksham has made a positive impact upon his return from injury, most recently converting five marks and seven kicks into four straight goals last week. He now has 2+ to his name in four consecutive appearances.
Best Bet: Melbourne -42.5 points - 1.9 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Jake Melksham to kick 2+ goals - 1.67 With Unibet
St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues, Sunday, 3.20pm (AEST)
Just as the battle for finals spots in the last month of the home and away season is going to be ultra-competitive, so too will be the jostling for fifth and sixth to earn a home elimination final.
There’s every chance that the St Kilda Saints (W11 L8) and Carlton Blues (W10 D1 L8) could be meeting one another in the first week of the finals, in which case there’s no such thing as a competitive advantage at Marvel Stadium for two of its regular tenants.
Betting sites are anticipating Carlton to leapfrog St Kilda with a narrow victory off the back of six straight wins, but they followed up a similarly positive start to the year with a 22-point loss to the Saints in April.
Where we think the value lies is with the total points mark: seven of St Kilda’s last eight matches have produced fewer than 164.5 total points, and with the Saints boasting the second-best defensive unit in the league purely in terms of average points conceded (73.2), they’re sure to challenge a Carlton forward line that has recently rediscovered its mojo.
Unibet is offering a very generous 2.2 for Saints forward Dan Butler to kick 2+ goals for the 10th time this year following his four against the Hawks, a price far higher than the competition at time of writing.
Best Bet: Under 164.5 total points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Dan Butler to kick 2+ goals - 2.2 With Unibet
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