AFL Betting Tips Round 8: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 8 Predictions:
- Collingwood +8.5 points - 1.9 @ Bet365
- Sydney-GWS over 147.5 points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
- Melbourne-Geelong under 164.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
The marquee matches keep coming thick and fast in the 2024 AFL season as the league headlines Round 8 with derbies from Adelaide, Sydney and south-east Queensland as well as another chapter in the storied Carlton-Collingwood rivalry.
There’s sadly (and curiously) no Western derby to complete the puzzle this weekend, but both WA clubs are on different sides of 11.5 point lines with AFL betting sites and should be involved in some very interesting contests of their own.
After storming into the title race earlier in the season, Carlton were hit with a bit of a reality check against Premiership co-favourites Geelong last week.
We’ll all learn a lot more about their credentials this week when they face the reigning champions Collingwood, who are still ahead of higher ranked clubs such as Fremantle and Port Adelaide in the outright market with AFL bookmakers.
Followers of this blog got agonisingly close to a very profitable weekend in Round 7, falling one point short of a Collingwood victory as well as the ‘unders’ in the Canberra ANZAC Day.
In the end, two points (one in each game) were the difference between a 6% loss and a 61% profit!
Let’s hope a little fortune goes a long way in our favour this week as we bring you our best AFL predictions for Round 8 as well as the highest value plays for three popular player bets.
Carlton v Collingwood, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Following last weekend’s disappointing loss to unbeaten ladder leaders Geelong, Carlton coach Michael Voss was scathing of his team’s defensive performance and wayward first quarter kicking that saw them go home empty handed despite dominating the clearances and inside 50s.
Voss would therefore have spent the week working out how to sharpen up in their defensive 50, having fallen to end the previous round as the fifth-worst defensive unit after conceding three consecutive tons.
They should have the upper hand in the midfield given the absence of Tom Mitchell and Jordan de Goey in the Collingwood camp, but the Pies boast a speedy forward line that could create some deadly counters if Carlton persist with a high press defence.
The team that is second in the league for forward intercepts will be testing Carlton’s defensive 50 in transition as well, but need to drastically improve their starts.
If last week’s first 10 minutes against Essendon wasn’t a wake-up call, nothing will be.
There’s no better chance to make a statement to the competition than against another old and bitter foe, and after we got stung by the draw last week we’ll be taking them at the line to buy some insurance for a close defeat.
For a man who has kicked at least one goal in six of his seven appearances this year, and 10 of his last 12 if you want to go even further back into 2023, Ladbrokes are offering a stunning price for Matthew Cottrell to again be on the goalkickers’ list.
Best Bet: Collingwood +8.5 points - 1.9 @ Bet365
Player Prop: Matthew Cottrell to kick a goal - 1.73 @ Ladbrokes
Sydney v GWS, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
The Saturday program begins in a potentially wet New South Wales, with the weather making for perhaps the most fascinating of all markets offered by betting sites for Round 8.
Bookies have priced the over/under total at just 147.5 points in anticipation of Sydney’s week-long big wet, which at time of publication was expected to peak with heavy falls on Sunday.
We suspect they may be acting a little too conservatively, especially given how well the world class SCG drains and the slick wet ball handling skills of many modern players.
Sydney and GWS are averaging a hefty 174 and 186 total points per game on average this year, placing them both in the top six of the league at the start of the round, and their scores have been continually underestimated with five of the Giants’ games clearing the main total points handicap as well as four involving the Swans.
If the rain that falls on Saturday afternoon is at the lower end of the forecasted band, they should have no trouble scoring 150+ points between them.
The lingering threat of wet weather makes it difficult to predict player stats, particularly when betting the ‘under’ is no longer an option, but one that could be worth taking on is for Jake Lloyd to again accumulate at least 25 disposals.
There’s perhaps no better example than when these sides met in August last year and piled on 181 points in a wet game, with Lloyd notching up 27 touches.
He averages 24.7 disposals across 20 matches against the Giants, clearing 25+ in nine of his last 11 games against them.
Best Bet: Over 147.5 total points scored - 1.9 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Jake Lloyd 25+ disposals - 3.15 @ Bluebet
Melbourne v Geelong, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
The second of Round 8’s two top-four battles will take place under lights at the MCG with Melbourne likely to give the unbeaten Geelong Cats their toughest test yet of 2024.
Geelong rightfully go into this contest as narrow favourites, getting a 2.5 point start with exchange betting sites.
Whilst they can only defeat the teams in front of them, Geelong’s first win of the season against a top-eight side came only last week when they conceded 100 points against Carlton but were nonetheless able to outscore them.
The Cats have been excellent in front of goal with an equal best accuracy of 55.7% this season but aren’t likely to get as many scoring chances this time around, with Melbourne topping the league for intercept marks with an average of 19.6 per game.
Melbourne are by far the least penetrable defence of the AFL, conceding only 66 points per match which has contributed to the majority of their matches finishing ‘unders’.
That, combined with Geelong sporting the fourth best defence in the comp themselves in terms of points conceded, is why we can see this one falling short of the main total points mark.
Melbourne forward Bayley Fritsch is often a popular pick with punters, especially having kicked 2+ goals on a consistent basis (6/7 times) this year. Uinibet is where you’ll get the best price for that trend to continue.
Best Bet: Under 164.5 total points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals - 1.6 @ Ladbrokes
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