AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 4 Best Bets And Betting Trends

The success of our 2025 AFL best bets blog continued last week when five of our six suggested bets were successful, and Hawthorn missing the -12.5 line by a single point denied us our second perfect week of the year. 

Last week’s selections returned a handy 64% profit based on recommended odds, which is why it pays to follow this blog as we continue to scan the best AFL betting sites in the country to squeeze the greatest value out of what is a very competitive industry. 

Our three chosen games for this week begin at GMHBA Stadium on Friday night, where we’re expecting Geelong to take their frustrations out on a hapless opposition who they defeated in each of the last two encounters at that venue.

AFL Round 4 Predictions:

• Geelong -27.5 Points - 1.90 With Playup
• Gold Coast-Adelaide Over 180.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
• Port Adelaide To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.14 With Unibet

Geelong Vs Melbourne, Friday 7:40pm AEDT

Friday night will see a hungry pack of cats hoping to avenge last weekend’s second-half shocker in which they gave up a lead of more than 30 points to fall out of the eight with a 1-2 record. 

Despite that, best Australian betting sites still have them in the second line of Premiership betting alongside Collingwood and Adelaide, and perhaps that’s because of their consistent ability to immediately bounce back from a soft performance. 

This is just the third time since the start of last year that Geelong have suffered a losing streak of some kind.

The Cats have covered the line immediately after their last five losses and come up against a pretty awful Melbourne side that is scoring just 67 points and conceding 107 per game so far, a line of 27.5 points in Geelong’s favour looks a little too short. 

Bet365 were offering some very generous odds on their disposal markets for this game at time of writing, giving everyone but Clayton Oliver odds of at least 1.65 to record 25+ disposals. 

Our best pick of the bunch is Geelong recruit Bailey Smith, who started his season off with 32 and 25 and averages 25.5 per game against the Demons. 

He even cleared 26+ in all seven encounters with Melbourne since the start of 2020, so it’s going to take quite an effort from the struggling Demons to stop him.

Best Bet: Geelong -27.5 Points - 1.90 With Playup

Player Prop: Bailey Smith 25+ disposals - 1.65 @ Bet365

Gold Coast Vs Adelaide, Saturday 1:20pm AEDT

All five games so far involving either the Suns or Crows finished over the pre-match total points handicap, so why not back the streak to continue when they clash heads at Carrara this Saturday?

The total points line for this game is the highest of the round but it’s one that both teams have exceeded with ease, with the Suns’ two games producing 367 points and Adelaide’s three a mammoth 660. 

Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe are tied for third in the Coleman Medal race of 2025 with teammates Ben Keays and Josh Rachele not far behind them, underlining the immense goalscoring capability at Adelaide’s disposal. 

The Suns kept their two opponents so far (West Coast and Melbourne) to just seven and eight goals each, but those two sides head into Round 4 with the lowest points per game, so we can expect Adelaide to be a much more difficult challenge. 

Darcy Thilthorpe is on a four-game run of kicking exactly three goals and booted 2+ in all but one of his 10 matches since the start of last year, so to be able to get even money for 2+ goals is remarkable value. 

Best Bet: Gold Coast-Adelaide Over 180.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet

Player Prop: Darcy Thilthorpe 2+ goals - 2.02 @ Ladbrokes

Port Adelaide Vs St Kilda, Sunday 3:20pm AEDT

St Kilda went into Thursday afternoon as 12.5 point outsiders against Port Adelaide as they seek to end a five-game losing streak at the Adelaide Oval.

Port were terribly underwhelming against Essendon last week and only have the Bombers’ horrendous kicking accuracy in the first and third quarters to thank for the margin not being an embarrassing blowout.

Back at home, they’ve won each of their last five regular season games and are out to make that six against a side whom they defeated by a margin of 1-39 points in each of the last five meetings across all venues. 

The home ground advantage should be enough to see the hot-cold-hot Port Adelaide get over the line against the Saints, though it’s hard to envisage a large winning margin based on how St Kilda defended against both Richmond and Geelong.

That’s why, if you favour Port Adelaide to come out on top in this game, you’ll get some additional value in the 1-39 margin market. 

There’s also tremendous value to be had on Betr, who on Thursday afternoon had odds of 1.90 or better for every player except Mitch Georgiades to kick at least two goals. 

Jack Higgins is 1.70 or thereabouts on most betting apps to extend his run of five consecutive multiple goalscoring hauls, so make sure you grab the 1.90 on either Betr or Unibet instead if it’s a play that appeals to you. 

Best Bet: Port Adelaide To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.14 With Unibet

Player Prop: Jack Higgins 2+ goals - 1.94 @ Unibet