India v Australia ODI Series: Latest Odds, Analysis And Betting Picks
When: September 22, 24 & 27 (first ball: 6:00pm AEST)
Where: Mohali, Indore, Rajkot
Watch: Fox Cricket 501, Kayo Sports
Best Odds (first ODI): India 1.91, Australia 1.95
Scheduling a three-game ODI series so close to the 2023 Cricket World Cup is fraught with danger as far as injuries are concerned, doesn’t it?
Nonetheless, it presents Indian and Australian players a wonderful opportunity to either get themselves into optimal shape mentally and physically for a World Cup, or make their case for a last-minute call-up before the window for squad alterations closes on September 28.
Furthermore, Australia are expected to draw some valuable experience from playing five games in Indian surroundings (including their two official warm-ups), albeit all at venues they won’t be revisiting during the tournament itself.
Any series between these two giants is always compelling viewing irrespective of the context and overarching narratives, and betting sites have geared up with a stack of fascinating markets to attack.
The Numbers That Matter
- Australia has a 6-5 ODI record in India across their three tours in 2019, 2020, 2023
- Five of the last six ODIs in Mohali were won chasing despite an average first innings score of 315
- Australia had the higher 10-over powerplay score in 10 of their last 11 ODIs
- Adam Zampa has 20 wickets from 11 ODIs in India since 2019
- Pat Cummins took 5/70 in Australia’s last Mohali ODI
India Team News
Squad for 1st and 2nd ODIs (ODI caps): KL Rahul (c, 58), Ruturaj Gaikwad (2), Ishan Kishan (23), Shreyas Iyer (44), Shubman Gill (33), Suryakumar Yadav (27), Ravichandran Ashwin (113), Ravindra Jadeja (183), Tilak Varma (1), Washington Sundar (17), Jasprit Bumrah (76), Mohammed Shami (92), Mohammed Siraj (29), Prasidh Krishna (15), Shardul Thakur (42)
Note: Rohit Sharma (250), Virat Kohli (280), Hardik Pandya (82), Axar Patel (54), Kuldeep Yadav (89) will replace Gaikwad, Varma and Krishna for 3rd ODI
India are resting four of their Asia Cup stars (Rohit, Kohli, Hardik and Kuldeep) whilst Axar Patel is racing to recover from a minor quadricep tear to be ready for India’s two World Cup warm-up games.
Axar has been named to return alongside the other four players for the third game but will be subject to his fitness on the day.
It opens the door for both Washington Sundar and Ravichandran Ashwin to push their way in as a potential back-up all-rounder after initially missing World Cup selection, whilst next generation players such as Ruturaj Gaikwad and Tilak Varma could get some game time to manage the workload of their senior colleagues.
Similarly, the five fast bowlers will probably play two matches each across the six-day series so as to not be overburdened, and it’s at this stage anybody’s guess which four will be selected in Mohali, but they’re all match-winners in their own right.
Australia Team News
Squad (ODI caps): Pat Cummins (c, 75), Alex Carey (69), Josh Inglis (6), Matt Short (0), Steve Smith (142), David Warner (147), Sean Abbott (15), Cameron Green (17), Marnus Labuschagne (35), Mitchell Marsh (77), Glenn Maxwell (128), Marcus Stoinis (63), Nathan Ellis (8), Josh Hazlewood (72), Spencer Johnson (0), Tanveer Sangha (1), Mitchell Starc (110), Adam Zampa (83)
Captain Pat Cummins, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Starc are all going to be returning to the ODI side at some point throughout the series. Smith appears ready for the first ODI after batting for two hours in the late afternoon heat, whilst Cummins also had a full training session.
Mitchell Starc may still be some time away based on his training activity, which could mean Sean Abbott could stay on after he collected 13 wickets in his seven appearances in South Africa.
Ashton Agar is expected to get some game time after leaving the South Africa tour early on parental leave, given he is one of six all-rounders in the last updated Australian squad.
Marnus Labuschagne demonstrated on two separate occasions what the team may be missing out on by leaving him out of the World Cup squad, and this series will be incredibly vital to his chances of being recalled should Travis Head not be fit for the tournament.
India v Australia ODI Series: What Could Happen?
Australia come into this series on the downslide after three consecutive bruising losses to South Africa and have demonstrated in previous tours of India that they need one game to get into their groove, illustrated by losing the first ODI in three of their last four away series in India.
There is also the likelihood of a cabal of Australian players returning from lengthy absences, which also presents the risks of said players appearing a little ‘rusty’.
Compare that with a home side that is well polished, fit and firing on all cylinders after their Asia Cup win in similar conditions, and India even without some of their household names appear to have a significant edge despite the best cricket betting sites effectively rating this match as 50-50.
Our player prop prediction banks more on venue history than recent form, but we nonetheless believe it’s a sound pick at a handy price: Jasprit Bumrah will pick up a fourth consecutive ODI multiple-wicket haul in Mohali.
The spearhead is still working his way back to full fitness with some shorter spells during the Asia Cup, but is expected to ramp up his workload in this series leading up to the World Cup, and he showed in the Asia Cup he doesn’t need a full 10 overs to strike more than once anyway.
Bumrah has collected 2+ wickets in six of his last seven ODIs when bowling more than five overs and has also taken 2+ in all three ODIs played in Mohali, including against Australia in March 2019.
He also has a 50% success rate of 2+ scalps against Australia when bowling more than five overs, which whilst it doesn’t justify the price on its own, adds to some already compelling data.
Best Bet: India to win - 1.91 With Bet365
Player Prop: Jasprit Bumrah over 1.5 wickets - 1.83 With Ladbrokes
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