Showdown in the Semis: India vs New Zealand World Cup Betting Preview
India v New Zealand predictions:
- Rohit Sharma Under 38.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch
- Devon Conway Under 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch
- Mohammed Shami 3+ wickets - 3.4 @ Parimatch
When: Wednesday 12 November, 2:00pm IST
Where: Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar
Best Odds: India 1.36, New Zealand 3.4
India topped their Cricket World Cup group for a third consecutive time, which serves as a brutal reminder that the job is not yet done.
There’s perhaps no greater reminder than their 2019 World Cup semi-final when, in a Manchester epic across two days, they were conquered by upcoming opponents New Zealand from a winning position.
The home side has understandably been graded as overwhelming favourites by the best Indian cricket betting sites after a perfect nine wins from nine in which they were rarely challenged.
That includes a group stage win against New Zealand with two overs and four wickets to spare, where they completed a run chase without ever really looking out of control, whilst only two Blackcaps players cleared 25+ runs with the bat.
There’s no value in backing India to get the job done once again at the Wankhede Stadium to reach the 2023 World Cup final, but there are a few player props that caught our eye earlier this week.
The Numbers That Matter
- The average first innings ODI score in Mumbai since the 2011 World Cup is 309 (367 for winning teams)
- India scored the most sixes in eight of their nine group stage games (the one against New Zealand was a tie!)
- Ravindra scored 50+ in five of his nine group stage innings
- Mohammed Siraj averages 41 with the ball in IPL cricket at this venue
Rohit to fall flat in front of his IPL faithful
Whilst he hasn’t reached the heights of his 2019 campaign (and it would be harsh to expect him to do so), India’s captain has been super consistent throughout this edition, posting one century, three fifties and a further three scores in the 40s.
He has so far withstood the enormous expectations of favouritism in a home World Cup, but the step up to a knockout game will be immensely different. So how does he fare in such situations?
Well, in all tournament knockouts (including World Cups, Champions Trophy, Asia Cups and any tri-series with a final), Rohit has two centuries against Bangladesh, two half-centuries and a further eight scores of under 50.
It’s overall a 50% success rate of clearing the 38.5 run mark set by bookmakers for this particular innings, but there’s a little more in favour of him failing to clear it on this occasion.
Rohit has a top score of just 20 in Wankhede Stadium ODIs (50 runs from four innings) as well as a batting average of 22 against Trent Boult and 20 against Tim Southee in white ball internationals.
They promise to be one of the toughest tests a new ball pair can offer at this World Cup, and as we saw against India and Sri Lanka, he can be trapped early by nagging accuracy.
Prediction: Rohit Sharma Under 38.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch
The consistency Conway doesn’t covet
Big things were expected of Rohit’s rival opener Devon Conway, who has taken the world by storm across all three formats since an effortless T20I 41 on debut against the West Indies in late 2020.
But since his jaw dropping unbeaten century in the opening match against England, his potential hasn’t been realised.
He has been dismissed caught off pace bowling in each of his last five innings, including for a duck off the bowling of Mohammed Siraj, and now faces the pressure of his first international tournament knockout match at a venue that has been nothing but cruel to him.
Conway’s four IPL innings at the Wankhede returned scores of 0, 5, 0 and 3! Susceptible to the nipping new ball as well as lengthy periods of poor form, it’s almost certain that Conway will have a tough time against Siraj and Shami moving it around early.
He averages 19 in ODIs against the five bowlers expected to shoulder the workload for India in this semi-final, which further points to trouble.
Prediction: Devon Conway Under 28.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch
Shami to shine
Now after that doom and gloom, it’s time to finish on a positive note with an upbeat prediction.
Mohammed Shami was one of just six bowlers to pick 3+ wickets on at least three separate occasions at this World Cup (for a total of four times from his last seven home ODIs), and we’re running with the bold tip that he’s going to do it again.
Shami’s two ODI appearances at the Wankhede this year returned 3-17 against Australia and 5-18 in a win over Sri Lanka.
Against the 11 players that took to the field in New Zealand’s final game, Shami also averaged a very healthy 21.63 with the ball in ODIs, picking off Williamson, Santner and Daryl Mitchell twice each in his career.
For the more conservative bettor, we recommend playing it safe with 2+ wickets. But without the ghosts of 2019 on his back, a confident Shami has some big numbers in his favour.
Prediction: Mohammed Shami 3+ wickets - 3.4 @ Parimatch
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