Republican Nominee Odds 2028: Does The Gamble On Marco Rubio Make Sense?
With the world in a more fractious state than perhaps any time in living memory, and geopolitics dominating news cycles on every continent, this is a moment when political fortunes can suddenly rise or fall.
That likely explains the significant market moves regarding the next US presidential election.
Despite the fact that the candidates will not be determined until the summer of 2028, the race to succeed Donald Trump on the Republican ticket is the subject of a major ongoing gamble on political betting sites.
Rubio Closing Fast On Vance
Vice-president JD Vance had been odds-on, well ahead of any rivals, but his status as favourite could soon be challenged by the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
Vance has drifted out to a best-priced 11/8 with Star Sports, whereas Rubio’s odds have fallen sharply to just 3/1 with William Hill and much shorter elsewhere.
So far as winning the presidential election is concerned, Vance is now a 10/3 chance (Bet365), with William Hill again offering the best Rubio odds at 8/1.
Usually, market moves of this nature and scale are driven by opinion polls, but that isn’t a convincing explanation.
Several polls were released in January and February, and while Rubio’s average did tick upwards, he remains a long way behind Vance, whose aggregate lead is between 26.2% and 31.5%.
Republican Candidate Betting Odds:
Nominee | Odds | Betting Site |
JD Vance | 11/8 | |
Marco Rubio | 3/1 | |
Donald Trump Sr | 7/1 | |
Ron DeSantis | 22/1 | |
Donald Trump Jr | 22/1 |
Will Trump Endorsement Prove Decisive?
Rather, Rubio’s upward trajectory is due to an expanding role within the Trump administration and praise heaped on him by his boss.
He has been given multiple important jobs and, as foreign policy takes center stage, so does the Secretary of State.
Trump even ‘joked’ about making Rubio the president of Cuba.
With the Constitution barring Trump from running again, his endorsement is regarded as critical, as it almost always is in Republican primary races for Congress.
According to numerous reports, Trump is enjoying pitting Vance and Rubio against one another and has yet to decide.
There is no question that, as of today, Rubio’s status in 'Trump world' is rising. Thinking longer term, however, there are several reasons to view this gamble with scepticism.
MAGA Civil War Brewing Over Foreign Policy
If the race becomes a head-to-head between Rubio and Vance, their ideological differences will come to the fore, especially regarding foreign policy and intervention.
From the early stages of his career, Rubio was a ‘neoconservative’ and vocal critic of Trump’s isolationist, ‘America First’ brand.
Like most Republicans in the Senate, he keenly supported the wars of the George W Bush era, which Trump would later condemn. He vehemently opposed Vladimir Putin.
Vance, in contrast, has positioned himself as a critic of US involvement in foreign wars; an isolationist, opposed to helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia.
Until very recently, that was in lockstep with Trump. Many have noted Vance’s absence from the political frontline in recent weeks and speculate that he is liaising with like-minded conservatives opposed to the war in Iran, such as the journalist Tucker Carlson.
Indeed, there are growing signs of a bitter divide within MAGA over Iran. Check out these extraordinary exchanges between Carlson and Laura Loomer.
I rarely read the filth you publish, and have never responded to it, for the same reason I avoid pornography. It’s unhealthy and I don’t want to encourage it. But in this specific case I understand exactly what you’re doing and I’d like to stop it now. I have never said or… https://t.co/b6z32XiqZZ
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) March 12, 2026
Foreign Interventions Unlikely To Win Votes
As things stand, the country is divided over the Iran conflict. Trump’s approval ratings are tanking, and the war is unpopular.
In Venezuela, whilst the administration’s actions have removed Nicolas Maduro, his quasi-communist regime remains in place under Trump and Rubio’s direction.
Unless these foreign interventions become popular and deemed as successful game-changers to US advantage, it is hard to see Rubio reaping any rewards in the 2028 primary.
Vance Much Better Placed To Inherit MAGA
For a decade, ‘MAGA’ (defined as Trump, America First and their social media ecosystem) has come to dominate conservative politics.
Defining themselves as ‘anti-establishment’, they have repeatedly beaten the party establishment (neoconservatives, Rubio’s allies in the Senate), and made them subservient to an agenda which once horrified them.
Rubio previously stated that he wouldn’t run against Vance. One assumes that is because he recognizes how the party has changed, and how much better positioned the vice-president is to win that MAGA base.
Furthermore, VPs very rarely lose primaries. The only former VPs to fail in presidential primaries since the 1960s were Mike Pence and Dan Quayle.
Of course, Pence was in the unique position of running against his former boss, Trump, whilst Quayle never even made it to the first primary. It is safe to say Vance’s position is closer to that of Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Al Gore or George HW Bush.
Finally, remember there is a long way to go, and it would be very wrong to assume this is a two-horse race.
Trump himself continues to flirt with the idea of running again, despite it being illegal under the Constitution. Both allies, such as Steve Bannon, and enemies who think he is a dictator, have long argued that Trump will try to defy the law.
Regardless of that, others will enter the race. Right now, the smartest betting plan is to look for much bigger odds than a flawed front two in a time of great uncertainty.
Who will win the Republican nomination for 2028? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below!
