Rugby World Cup Betting: Midweek Predictions, Tips & Analysis
Round Four Midweek Tips:
- Uruguay -17.5 points - 1.9 with Betway
- Japan-Samoa under 49.5 points - 1.9 with BetVictor
- Italy +26 points - 1.9 with William Hill
For the final time in 2023, the Rugby World Cup will treat spectators and viewers with a Wednesday night fixture as part of a trio of weeknight games heading into the fourth weekend of play.
With a variety of ramifications, repercussions and permutations across these three games, there’s plenty to get excited about for all sets of fans as well as neutrals.
We believe we’ve found three Rugby World Cup best bets to build our bankroll ahead of another busy week for online rugby betting sites.
Los Teros To Keep Namibia Quiet
A matchup that the two Tier 2 nations of Pool A targeted for victory months in advance opens the fourth matchweek and there has so far been an enormous gap in class between Uruguay and Namibia as far as their campaigns are concerned.
Namibia sustained an enormous combined losing margin of 140 points in their defeats to France and Italy, whom Uruguay lost to by an aggregate of just 36 in comparison, which included an excellent showing against France (L 27-12) despite bookmakers giving them a 50-point head start.
The tackle success rates of the Africans across their three matches - 55%, 59% and 66% - are all well below competitive standard and is just one statistical indication of how they’ve been outclassed at yet another World Cup.
Uruguay came out on top 26-18 in a warm-up game following which Namibian head coach Allister Coetzee lamented his team’s inability to execute key skills that had been specifically focused on leading into the match.
It appears as though Los Teros has taken forward leaps in this tournament whilst the Namibians have gone the other way, and with Namibia now failing to score after half-time in five consecutive RWC games, Uruguay should be able to do enough to cover.
Tip: Uruguay -17.5 points - 1.9 @ Betway
A Terrific Tussle In Toulouse
Pool D is turning out to be just as competitive as anticipated, and the door is ajar for the winner of this clash between Japan and Samoa to stake their claim for a quarter-final place with group leaders England.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they and Argentina could all finish with two wins each, meaning the winner of this fixture will have one foot in the 2027 RWC (top-three finish in the pool) if not the final eight of this edition.
These sides played out a thrilling Pacific Nations Cup tie in which the Samoans triumphed 24-22, ending a run of three straight head-to-head wins for Japan that included their 2019 (38-19) and 2015 (26-5) Rugby World Cup fixtures.
But Japan were a man down (Michael Leitch) for more than half of that game and head coach Jamie Joseph was certain that the Japanese had played well enough to win with 15 on the pitch.
The Brave Blossoms should edge this one out based on their class, but as Samoa showed against Argentina, scoring is not going to come easy for a Japan side that has recorded no more than 22 points in their last seven games against national teams other than Chile.
In fact, eight of the nine full national team Tests involving either or both sides finished under the total points handicap, and we expect the trend to continue here.
Tip: Under 49.5 total points - 1.9 @ BetVictor
Challenging Azzurri Will Keep All Blacks Honest
The All Blacks had a week off after a second-string side plundered the Namibian defence to the tune of 71-3, which in effect means three weeks between appearances for some of their best backs such as Will Jordan and Mark Telea, who should therefore be fresh for this.
There’s understandably a lot of scrutiny on the All Blacks at the moment after they suffered a record-breaking loss to South Africa, fell away when the pressure was on from France, and needed the full 80 minutes to fall over the line against the out-of-sorts Australians.
A win over Namibia will count for nothing if they cannot get a bonus point win against Italy to ensure that the Italians would have to defeat red-hot France on the final weekend to make the quarter-finals.
They should do so with a strong team taking to the pitch, but it’s worth noting that whilst they have not claimed any big scalps in 2023 like they did when defeating Wales and Australia last year, Italy failed to cover the pre-match spread only once from their 11 outings this year, when losing to Wales at home in the Six Nations.
Seventeen points has been their biggest losing margin of the season despite facing some strong opposition and since head coach Kieran Crowley has already decided to leave the team after the competition, which instead appears to have relaxed the players thanks to Crowley’s ‘have a go’ mentality.
Tip: Italy +26 points - 1.9 @ William Hill
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