Next Tory Leader Odds: Who to Bet On

Joe Short

October 12th, 2021

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Calculating who to back among the Conservative leadership candidates when the party inevitably holds its next contest isn’t easy. That's why unearthing the top candidates for the job is something the best political betting sites continually work on.

We must consider numerous factors when betting on the political machine that is the Tory party, the oldest party in the world. From Boris Johnson to Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May to Alec Douglas-Home, the Tories don’t always pick the favourite to be their leader.

Indeed, being a Conservative leader requires the sort of steely personality unique among a certain set of politicians. These days bookmakers run an ever-changing market on who will be the next Conservative leader – and Johnson’s remarkable rise to power in 2019 proves you can practically bet on anyone.

Next Tory Leader Betting Odds*

*Odds correct as of 12/10/2021

Most Popular Conservative Leadership Candidates to Replace Boris Johnson

When it comes to betting on the Tory Leadership contest, the candidates will almost certainly be those on the front bench. Take the 2019 vote, for instance, when Theresa May was ousted from her position, and the likes of Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid all jostled for the vote.

As we examine the most popular candidates to replace Mr Johnson, it is towards his cabinet ministers that we should look. Javid himself was returned to cabinet midway through 2021 as health secretary and could be a viable contender for the leadership the longer Johnson hangs around once the COVID-19 pandemic subsides.

Equally, the likes of Gove, Liz Truss and Priti Patel could all consider themselves leadership material one day. Notably, however, if you ask, ‘who do the bookies think will be the next UK conservative party leader?’, then there’s only one answer: Rishi Sunak.

Betting on the Next UK Conservative Leadership Race

Sunak is the clear frontrunner for the Conservative leadership when Johnson decides to step down. Betting on the chancellor and any other candidate is quite straightforward. Many of the best betting sites in the UK feature politics betting odds that cover some of the most intricate dealings within government.

Whether it's wagering on the next Prime Minister, backing a candidate for the chop, or even placing a bet on when Johnson will leave, there are plenty of markets to familiarise yourself with. And betting on politics couldn’t be easier.

A bookmaker doesn’t even require you to sign up before you take a look at the latest politics odds. Once you’ve checked out the market and made a decision, then it’s time to join one of the leading bookmakers listed below, trigger a promo offer or two, and place your wager.

If you’re struggling with understanding the odds then don’t worry. All bookmakers have a bet slip where you can preliminarily enter your stake and see what your potential winnings could be, based on the odds. That will let you know how likely your chosen candidate is to replace Johnson.

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How the UK Conservative Party Selects its Leadership

The UK Conservative party leadership selection process takes place in two stages. First, MPs vote on their preference when all nominations are confirmed. In 2019, there were 10 initial nominations, which the MPs whittled down to two.

At this point, the vote goes out to all Conservative party members across the country. This is done via a postal ballot that is mailed to roughly 130,000 constituents. There are two names on the ballot. Whoever wins this one-on-one vote becomes the next Tory leader.

This voting method seems straightforward and shouldn’t stir too much controversy, but as we all know, nothing is easy when it comes to political voting. When any other party has been in Government, the Tory leadership vote has gone off without a hitch. Take 2005 as an example, when the party voted David Cameron in as leader.

However, when the Conservatives have been in power, it’s been a controversial vote. For instance, in 2019, Johnson was given the keys to No 10 Downing Street after just 92,313 people officially voted for him in the UK General Election.

Qualities of a new Conservative Party Leader for 2022 and Beyond

Should Johnson either leave or be ousted from his position as PM, then the next leader of the Conservative Party will likely exude different qualities. After all, when a party leader leaves, it’s usually because there is a clamour for a different approach. The difference between Johnson and Theresa May was stark indeed.

Johnson has thrived as a populist leader who famously tries to deliver what the public wants, even if it means flip-flopping between stances. He notoriously wrote two Daily Telegraph columns ahead of the 2016 Brexit vote – one backing Remain and one backing Leave.

The new leader will likely have to possess a more varied political ideology than Johnson’s populist bent. Guiding the economy through its post-Covid recovery period will take years, while there is also a clamour for greater green policies. On the international stage, a new Tory leader will have to be a nimble player. Johnson’s jokes and gaffes go down well in the UK but not among leaders across the EU, Americas or Asia.

But like any Conservative leader, there will also need to be a ruthless streak to whoever replaces Johnson. After all, right-wing and centre-right economic policy rarely looks at welfare or public investment with pleasure. A low-tax, small state, neoliberal policymaker could well thrive in No 10.

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Next Conservative UK Prime Minister Betting Odds

All of which points to Rishi Sunak as the very real frontrunner to be the next Conservative UK prime minister. The billionaire who made his money in banking has been a popular chancellor since his appointment in 2019 – largely thanks to his furlough scheme that supported out-of-work employees through the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.

Sunak was given the freedom to spend billions of pounds supporting the economy and his reputation now rests on how the UK bounces back from Covid. Ever since furlough began, Sunak has been the heavy favourite – sometimes as narrow as 2/1 with the best specials betting sites – to be the next Tory leader.

• Rishi Sunak 2/1
• Michael Gove 6/1
• Jeremy Hunt 8/1
• Liz Truss 12/1
• Dominic Raab 14/1
• Sajid Javid 14/1
• Priti Patel 16/1

Meanwhile, the likes of Patel and Gove have avoided government reshuffles, sackings and reputational damage in the media to hover close to Sunak as potential replacements in Downing Street.

Hunt is another of the Conservative leadership candidates who has enjoyed a sharp rise in his stock since the coronavirus pandemic – largely because the former health secretary was considered to have done a better job than opposition parties in holding the government to account over the NHS.

He would mark a move away from Johnsonian politics and more towards the May/Cameron style of leadership – something the Tory members may be keen on the longer the incumbent is in office.