Brazil Presidential Election Odds: Bolsonaro Tipped To Beat Da Silva

The world's seventh most populous country heads to the polls on Sunday for an election that has pretty much everything. 

Brazil's electorate ultimately breaks down into two bitterly divided left and right factions, of roughly equal size. At this stage, betting sites are reluctant to confidently pick the winner.

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Another Chaotic Election Expected

Brazilian politics is a tale of political dynasties in a system beset by perennial corruption scandals and political violence. This election could well produce a chaotic finale, with results disputed and even accusations of voter fraud.

It did last time. With clear echoes of January 6, 2021 in the USA, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro refused to accept their man’s defeat, attacking the Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court in an attempt to instigate a military coup d’etat. The campaign had already seen constant violence, even murders, and there was a plot to kill President Lula da Silva.

Although he denied conspiring towards this end, Bolsonaro was later charged and convicted on multiple grounds related to the plot and various instances of corruption. He was sentenced to 27 years and banned from running for office until 2030. He is now under a form of humanitarian house arrest following health problems.

In his absence, the father has endorsed his son, Flavio Bolsonaro. The son is himself now mired in the Banco Master affair - a tale of huge bank fraud - and now an alleged sex scandal.

Corruption Scandals Yet To Hurt Bolsonaros

One might think that the family record would disqualify their far-right Liberal Party among voters. However, as with their ally Trump after January 6, that has not proved the case. Bolsonaro goes into Sunday’s first round as 4/6 favourite on betting apps, compared to 5/4 for Lula da Silva.

Lula has served three terms as president, first from 2003 to 2011, before being himself convicted and jailed over corruption. The charges were later annulled, enabling his return in 2023. Nevertheless, the fact his Workers Party has also spent decades embroiled in corruption scandals may explain public indifference to the issue.

Health is another problem for the left candidate. Now 80 years old, Lula suffered a fall and brain haemorrhage in 2024 and was later diagnosed with labyrinthitis.

Second Round Transfers To Favour Bolsonaro

The electoral system requires the first round winner to score 50% plus, or go through to a second round against the runner-up. A run-off seems certain, with the big-two taking out around 80% and being roughly tied in polls.

Polls project the pair tied for that second round. The five main aggregators project a lead of no more than 1% for each candidate. This should worry Lula backers, given that he badly underperformed the polls in 2022, when expecting to win comfortably.

So too should the indications from supporters of the candidates likely to be eliminated. In order of their current polling performance, they are Augusto Cury (6%), Renan Santos (4%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) and Romeu Zema (1%).

Analysis from the Council of Americas finds Bolsonaro well ahead among transfers from all bar Zema, (whose share is by far the smallest). 41% of Cury, 50% of Santos and 46% of Caiado supporters prefer Bolsonaro.

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Trump Allies Are Dominant Across The Continent

We must also consider the broad trends sweeping across South America, in favour of far-right parties allied to Trump. They have won in Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia. There appears little indication that 80 year-old Lula will be able to repel that trend. 

In recent days, Lula announced a ban on sports betting. Likely a desperate, last-ditch measure to court public opinion. The final presidential debate was cancelled after both main candidates opted out.

Given what is likely to happen to the second round transfers, 4/6 on betting sites for the Bolsonaro family regaining power looks a solid bet.