Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips: Five Panel Selections From Torrey Pines
Brooks Koepka makes his return to the PGA Tour at this week’s Farmers Insurance Open after three and a half years playing on the lucrative Saudi-backed LIV Golf International Series.
Aside from a runner-up spot in Singapore, it was a poor year for the five-time major champion, who can be backed at 60/1 on betting sites to win at the coastal Torrey Pines, which hosted the 2021 US Open.
Koepka finished in fourth spot five years ago, but he has only once made the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open which involves three rounds on the South Course and one on the North, unlike the 2021 US Open which only used the former.
Xander Schauffele, the 2024 Open and USPGA Championship winner, last played in early October when he won the Baycurrent Classic, so he could be slightly rusty and lacks appeal as the 14/1 favourite to win a tournament which has produced two 90/1 winners and one at 125/1 in three of the last four renewals.
At 7,765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the PGA Tour and one of the most difficult, with narrow fairways which slope towards the Pacific Ocean. Penal rough and fast, small poa annua greens make this one of the toughest tests in golf.
The North Course is also a par-72, but around 500 yards shorter, so making a good score here is usually critical to success, although Matthieu Pavon shot a pre-weekend 68 and a 65 on the South when winning as a debutant two years ago.
For those looking at course form, it should be noted that the South Course also hosted last year’s Genesis Invitational because of the wildfires that blighted the area surrounding Riviera in California.
Ludvig Aberg won that tournament and is the 18/1 second favourite this week, despite withdrawing from The American Express after two rounds.
The South Course demands excellent approach play, accuracy off the tee and top-notch putting, but refreshingly it suits both long and short hitters.
Although there have been some juicy-priced winners of late, all four of The Panel’s Farmers Insurance Open betting tips range from between 30/1 and 45/1, with a top 20 thrown in for good measure.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips: Matsuyama The Man
Hideki Matsuyama has never won at Torrey Pines, but he has a strong record at this tournament, finishing inside the top 15 in four of his last eight appearances.
Furthermore, the 2021 Masters champion posted a three-under-par 68 to finish inside the top 30 at the 2021 US Open and he tied for 13th at the Genesis 11 months ago, so it’s clear this is a lay-out he likes, despite its difficulties.
Encouragingly, the Japanese warmed up for this event with a top 15 at Waialae, which has narrow fairways like Torrey Pines and also enjoys spectacular views of the Pacific Ocean.
Matsuyama was inside the top five for Strokes Gained: Around the Green last season, a skill-set which could prove useful this week, even though the wind is expected to be calm over the four days.
Five of Matsuyama’s 11 PGA Tour victories have come in the first couple of months of the year and it would be no surprise if he were to add a sixth at 28/1 as The Panel’s opening selection.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 1: Hideki Matsuyama 28/1 (Each-Way) - With Betfred (Five Places)
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips:
- Hideki Matsuyama 28/1 (Each-Way) - With Betfred (Five Places)
- Ryan Gerard 35/1 (Each-Way) - With SpreadEx (Six Places)
- Harris English 45/1 (Each-Way) - With SpreadEx (Six Places)
- Sam Stevens 40/1 (Each-Way) - With Ladbrokes (10 Places)
- Adam Schenk 20/1 Top 20 - With SpreadEx
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Farmers Insurance Open Tips: Red-Hot Gerard Can Score
Ryan Gerard enjoyed his first PGA Tour victory at the Barracuda Championship in July and has gone very close on multiple occasions to adding another title recently.
The 26-year-old from North Carolina has finished runner-up in his last three tournaments in Mauritius, Hawaii and last week’s trip to La Quinta, where only world number one Scottie Scheffler was better.
Gerard’s exploits have seen him rise to 24th in the world rankings and he finished 15th in his Farmers Insurance Open debut last year when he had positive numbers across all the major Strokes Gained metrics.
At The American Express, Gerard was very strong from tee to green and his scrambling was excellent, so he could finally get over the line at 35/1 with several betting apps.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 2: Ryan Gerard 35/1 (Each-Way) - With SpreadEx (Six Places)
Farmers Insurance Predictions: Full English
Harris English ended a three-and-a-half-year title drought by winning last year’s Farmers Insurance Open and The Panel like his chances of a successful defence at 45/1 with SpreadEx.
The American Ryder Cup player carded a six-under-par 66 to take a one-shot lead into the final round which proved to be the margin of victory despite a closing 73.
After Saturday’s round, English said: "I’ve played this place for a long time now and I feel like I know where to miss it, where to be aggressive and where to be patient and kind of have a yellow light pin of not being aggressive, too.
"I don’t know what it is, I just love US Open-type set-ups and Torrey Pines has always been one of my favourites."
English also finished in the top 25 in the relocated Genesis Invitational, so he played well in 2025 after a few lean years at this course.
His putting (3rd) and approach play (4th) were the key to last year’s success and he looks a livewire if he is dialled in once more.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 3: Harris English 45/1 (Each-Way) - With SpreadEx (Six Places)
Farmers Insurance Each-Way Tips: Stevens Getting Closer
Sam Stevens moved up to a career-high 40th in the world rankings with last week’s sixth place at La Quinta and his previous performances at Torrey Pines suggest he could earn his first PGA Tour title this week.
Stevens finished runner-up to English last year courtesy of a final-round 68, topping the tee-to-green rankings by half a shot from his nearest rival.
Three weeks later he was just outside the top 30 at the Genesis, so the signs are that he loves Torrey Pines, especially the more difficult South Course.
Although his iron play dried up after that near-miss 12 months ago, Stevens is showing signs of getting back on track.
Just outside the top 30 in Hawaii, he looked sharp at The American Express a week later and looks primed for another decent display.
Thirteenth on his tournament debut in 2023, Stevens has never missed the cut at Torrey Pines and he looks worth a stab at 40/1 with Ladbrokes, which is offering 10 places.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 4: Sam Stevens 40/1 (Each-Way) - With Ladbrokes (10 Places)
Farmers Insurance Open Top 20: Schenk Good Value
Finally, Adam Schenk has to be worth a go at 20/1 for, suitably, a top-20 finish.
The 34-year-old from Indiana won his maiden PGA Tour title at the Bermuda Championship in November, and although he missed the cut in his last three subsequent tournaments, he can get back on track at a venue where he tends to perform well.
Schenk’s last three appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open read 20th, 25th and 25th, and he had the hottest putter in the field 12 months ago.
His first two tournaments of the year have been very poor, but The Panel are hoping that muscle memory from previous visits to Torrey Pines kicks in.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Tips 5: Adam Schenk 20/1 Top 20 - With SpreadEx
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