Holborn And St Pancras By-Election Odds: Labour Can Burst Polanski’s Bubble

We have yet another cracking by-election to look forward to, following the resignation of former PM Keir Starmer. Voters in the Kings Cross and St Pancras constituency will go to the polls on October 8, for what betting apps are billing as a competitive two-horse race. Other parties beside Labour and the Greens can be backed at 100/1 upwards.

This will be the seventh by-election since Labour came to power in July 2024. Eight if counting the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Senedd. Discounting Clacton, which was boycotted by all major parties besides Reform, all were won by different parties, with each reflecting distinct dynamics, and thus illustrating the many different types of constituency in the UK.

We've had one effectively electing a PM, following one which effectively finished Andy Burnham's predecessor. A Tory/SNP fight in Aberdeen, and Nigel Farage fighting a bin in Clacton. Now, a straight fight between the two English parties of the left, in London. Based on the latest best odds, Labour are 2/5 (Betway) to win, compared to 5/2 for the Greens.

It won't be as fundamental to the national picture as Burnham’s victory in Makerfield, or Gorton & Denton, which destabilised Starmer, but there are still meaningful implications.

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Make Or break For Polanski?

Not least because Green Party leader Zack Polanski has opted in. Having instantly cut through, building a personal brand, taking the party to new heights in the polls and winning the Gorton & Denton by election, this is a key test. Perhaps a decisive one for his future prospects.

Polanski's plan has been to position the Greens firmly to the left of Labour. To talk more about cost of living, class issues, the Gaza and Iran conflicts, than traditional green issues. To target voter blocs who became ever more disillusioned with Starmer. In short, Jeremy Corbyn's core support. Muslims, younger and university educated progressive voters.

As we see across the democratic world, this is fertile territory for what might be described as the 'new left' and a mortal threat to the more centrist leadership of left parties.

However it is not without risk. It might well alienate the more moderate, usually suburban core of green voters, who were attracted to the party by environmentalism and want to hear more of it. That old bloc included plenty of ex-Conservatives or Lib Dems, who will be turned off by this dash to the left. 

And as for courting the left, this may prove much trickier with Labour under Burnham than Starmer. That aside, this is just about the perfect a constituency for the Polanski plan.

A Very Left-Wing Constituency

The ever invaluable demographic indicators and labels at Electoral Calculus make that clear. Its tribe is ‘Strong Left’, with a ‘43% Left’ cultural position, and ‘20% Left’ for economics, compared to 20% and 6% across London, which is well to the left of the UK as a whole. Those numbers rank as the 639th and 634th most left-wing out of 650 constituencies.

At 42.2, the average age is much younger than the national average of 49.6, and 69% highly educated compares favorably to 51% nationwide. Only 24% are homeowners, 30% own a car (64% and 77% are the national averages) and only 55% are white British (compared to 83%). 

This should be ideal Polanski territory

Based on their polling, the Electoral Calculus general election prediction rates Labour 59% likely to win, compared to 40% for the Greens. However their numbers include 12% for left-wing independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, who won 19% against Starmer in 2024 but is not contesting this by-election.

It is safe to assume that many more Feinstein voters would vote for Polanski than a generic Labour candidate, so an argument can definitely be made for backing the Greens on that alone.

In addition, by-elections generally favour the better motivated side, which is generally the opposition. Left-wing activists fit the bill. One can also wonder whether some loyal Starmer supporters will hold a grudge against Burnham’s leadership coup, or whether some Londoners are turned off by the new PM’s strong emphasis on the North.

On the other hand, Burnham is still in his honeymoon phase and has done plenty to reach out to the leftish voters who started abandoning Labour even before the last general election. His focus on homelessness and the new sanctions on Israeli settlers, is markedly different from Starmer. The ongoing, very public fight with the Netanyahu government won't hurt Labour in this constituency.

Furthermore, the Greens polling has gone into reverse. From regular high-teens and occasionally above 20% going into the local elections, their share is down roughly a third, sometimes slipping into single figures since Burnham became PM. Polanski’s approval rating has fallen from -13.4% in April, to -24.3 in September.

Row with Reform over Labour candidate should help her cause

Labour’s choice of candidate promises to be another critical factor. Sagal Abdi-Wali is leader of Camden council, and was a child refugee from Somalia. 

Reform chair Zia Yusuf immediately jumped on news of her selection, sparking a backlash that has already become the defining issue of the by-election.

This is exactly the narrative and dynamic which Labour want in an ethnically diverse constituency. That the real fight is between them and ‘racist Reform’. 

That Abdi-Wali evidently has local name recognition and pedigree must also be another big positive. Winning this seat will require at least 40% and it isn’t clear the Greens are capable of that right now.