NFL 2026 Season Week 4: One Bet From Every Game
We've consigned Week 3 to the history books and each division is beginning to take shape in the NFL.
There are five 3-0 teams and five teams looking to get rid of the zero next to their name in the standings.
We know one undefeated team will fall this week as the Chiefs and Raiders go head-to-head in Las Vegas. The Chiefs start as favourites on betting apps.
Check out our one bet from each game below.
Thursday Night Football
Steelers (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)
Mason Graham (CLE) 1+ Sack
Graham has a sack in every game and two last week, while Pittsburgh have shipped eight in three.
Rodgers holds the ball longer than any starter in the division and the line has leaked against three different fronts.
At 38.5, the lowest points total of the week, this is a game decided inside, where Cleveland's interior has been winning snaps.
Sunday Games
Colts (1-2) v Commanders (1-2)
[Tottenham Hotspur]
Both Teams To Score 20+ Points
Five of the six games involving these two have had both sides clear 20, with combined averages of 54.3 and 55.7. Washington have both scored 20+ and conceded 20+ in every game — 22-24, 20-37, 33-31.
The single exception is Indianapolis beating Houston 19-17, which is the only low-scoring game either has played. At a 47.5 total the market is pricing roughly 24 a side.
Washington's numbers now span two quarterbacks. Their 33 points against Seattle came with Marcus Mariota starting, which actually helps the case, but it's one game of evidence for the current setup rather than three.
Patriots (1-2) @ Bills (3-0)
Bills Defense 2+ Sacks
New England have conceded exactly three sacks in all three games, which is remarkable consistency for a line facing varied opposition.
Greg Rousseau has two in every one of Buffalo's games.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has thrown for 178, 208 and 199, so the dropbacks are there without being volume-heavy, and a seven-point deficit forces more of them late.
Jets (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)
Garrett Wilson 5+ Receptions
Jets receiver Garrett Wilson's floor is five and his trend is upward, 10 last week.
The reason it should hold is the Jets' collapsing run game: 152 rushing yards, then 67, then 58. Geno Smith's volume has climbed each week as a result.
Chicago conceded 353 passing yards in Week 1 but restricted Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to just 153 passing yards.
Jaguars (2-1) @ Bengals (2-1)
Jaguars To Score First
Jacksonville have struck first in every game, a touchdown each time, and only four other sides have done that.
Cincinnati have opened the scoring just once and trailed early at Pittsburgh.
Two of Jacksonville's openers came in the second quarter after a scoreless first, so this is a possession-quality angle rather than a fast-start one.
Cardinals (1-2) @ Giants (2-1)
Trey McBride 5+ Receptions
Eight is McBride's floor across three wildly different games, including the week Arizona managed seven points.
That's the value: his volume is independent of the scoreline, which is rare for a tight end.
The Giants have conceded 23 first downs twice, and Brissett targets him on early downs regardless of situation.
Rams (1-2) @ Eagles (2-1)
Rams Offense 100+ Rushing Yards
The Rams have cleared 116 rushing yards every week and Philadelphia have conceded 122, 132 and 128 yards in their opening three games.
Kyren Williams has gone 41, 85 and 88, so the workload is growing rather than fading.
The Rams shipped four sacks in Denver after conceding one across the opening fortnight.
Packers (1-2) @ Buccaneers (0-3)
Packers Under 79 Rushing Yards
Green Bay have never come within 13 yards of this number, managing just 17 in Atlanta.
Their identity explains it: 353 and 311 passing yards in two of three games, with the ground game abandoned early.
Tampa have conceded 76 a game and held two of three opponents under 79. The risk is their Week 1 lapse, 106 to Cincinnati.
Titans (0-3) @ Ravens (2-1)
Derrick Henry 1+ Rushing TD
Derrick Henry has scored in all three games, six rushing touchdowns in total, and Baltimore have seven as a team.
Tennessee have conceded one or more in two of three, and their offence has scored 10, 20 and 7, so an 11.5-point deficit should hand Baltimore the goal-line work.
It is Henry's first meeting with Tennessee since leaving in 2024 and he might just want to put on a show to remind them of what they are missing.
Cowboys (1-2) @ Texans (0-3)
Cowboys To Score First
Houston are yet to open the scoring in any game, one of only five teams still waiting to do so.
Their offence averages 18 points per game - six of them against Cincinnati.
Dallas have struck first in their last two, a touchdown against Washington and a field goal against Baltimore, and lead the first quarter 10-0 and 10-7 in those games.
Dolphins (0-3) @ Vikings (3-0)
Vikings To Score 3+ TDs
Miami have conceded three or more TDs in every game, one of only three sides to do so.
Minnesota's own side is the weak half: five against Green Bay, then none at all in Chicago, and two against Tampa Bay.
The Vikings are kick-reliant, a perfect seven from seven on field goals. This leans on Miami being the worst defense they have met.
Chiefs (3-0) @ Raiders (3-0)
Both Teams To Score 20+ Points
Both offences have cleared 20 in every game, with floors of 24 and 26, and the 47.5 total implies roughly 24 apiece.
The catch is the defences: each has conceded 20 points or more only once.
But those tight games came against Denver, Miami and the Chargers, three of the poorest offences in the league - not against opponents like these.
Broncos (2-1) @ 49ers (3-0)
49ers To Score First
San Francisco have struck first in every game and Denver in none.
Better still, the 49ers have done it inside the opening quarter each time - a field goal in Los Angeles, then touchdowns against Miami and Arizona.
Denver have managed no first-quarter points at all in their last two.
Chargers (0-3) @ Seahawks (2-1)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ receptions
Eight, nine, then 10 - rising every week, and the target count has climbed with it.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught eight of Seattle's 17 receptions in Week 1 and nine of 19 in Week 2, so the volume survives even when the offence is quiet.
He has also scored six touchdowns in three games. The floor sits exactly on the number.
Lions (2-1) @ Panthers (1-2)
Bryce Young 225+ Passing Yards
Bryce Young's floor is 287 passing yards and Detroit's best defensive showing still conceded 243.
Carolina's own run defence has been carved for 132-plus every week, so they should be chasing, and the 50.5 total is the second highest on the board.
Monday Night Football
Falcons (1-2) @ Saints (1-2)
Bijan Robinson 16+ Carries
Bijan Robinson takes roughly two-thirds of Atlanta's rushing work and had 29 in Green Bay, where they ran 41 times for 242 yards.
New Orleans have faced 33, 22 and 27 carries and conceded 108 or more every week.
The risk is a passing script: his 16 came in the 34-3 defeat to Carolina.
