Tanya Stevenson's Ante-Post Previews March 6th
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What am I looking forward to most next week? Easy it’s the Players Championship at Sawgrass, one of my main loves in life is USPGA golf and next week is my favourite tournament.
The 17th is the notorious par 3 island hole, this year it is timed beautifully to give me a bit of escapism.
For the last few weeks I have been immersed in statistics for Cheltenham, the Festival has been part of my life since I first attended in 1978.
I have hardly seen a race at the Cheltenham Festival in its entirety live! I have either been too small to see in a heaving crowd in my infancy then for many years clerking, the head is down working out the liabilities while the race is running.
Then I have been either in an Outside broadcast truck in the Cheltenham car-park watching the excitement unravel on a small monitor, while fumbling around to find the right stat to match the eventuality.
Or when I covered the betting alongside John McCririck once the race was off, it was meant that I went with a cameraman to the stand where all the trainers and connections stood.
With my back to the course there I stood pointing out those involved with winners. For years I have envied those who attended to watch the action.
It’s now on in I am anxious that all the facts and figures I have worked out are correct and I have covered every eventuality. So that’s why Sawgrass over the four days will be my haven.
I suspect like me at present, you need a pause from the Festival so I’m going to look ahead to Sandown and the Imperial Cup.
Remember it came with a big bonus for any who could win at Sandown and then at the Festival the following week.
Many a Saturday there was a scramble to see if the winner was one; entered, and two; if their rating was high enough to run. But no more; this change has led to the disappearance of such entries.
Rewind to Kelso last week and that course has worked so hard to nail the Morebattle Hurdle and they were rewarded. Racing has got to stop sitting on its theoretical hands and be creative.
Take A Look At All Of Tanya Stevenson's Racing Articles Here
Back in January, in my first ever ante-post column for Gambling.com, I flagged up the potential value in following Petit Tonnerre for either the Plate or the Grand Annual.
But now it seems within his future entries, all change, its back to hurdling for him, starting potentially on Saturday in the Imperial Cup.
He last ran over the smaller obstacles in last year’s County Hurdle finishing seventh, only beaten six lengths by Faivoir conceding six pounds to that rival. Now it is likely the pair will be off level weights.
Just a few stats to consider when analysing Sandown, the ground is going to be testing, very testing. All of the last 11 winners carried less than 11-3. The last favourite to win was Qaspal in 2010.
Only one of the last 10 winners was older than six. Only one winner since 2012 had won on their most recent run.
Petit Tonnerre can act in the ground, and he was doing wonders over the bigger obstacles without hitting the headlines and he might be one to watch on betting apps.
He has shown so much pace in between his chase fences, but has been expending too much energy catching up those that jump with more fluency.
But that is within the confines of graded company. He did well to keep tabs on Le Patron, Colonel Harry and JPR One in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices Chase on his last visit to Sandown.
His latest run at Musselburgh can be excused for various reasons, the track was too sharp for him, the going probably wasn’t soft enough and it might well have been over a distance too far.
If he does declare at Sandown, he has many worthy credentials and can move into the race at a pace, that long run uphill from turning for home will suit.
Now, if he doesn’t run at Sandown, I'm still very keen to see where he goes next week. He has entries in the Coral Cup, County and Martin Pipe, and another go at the County would be ideal.
Jonjo O’Neill has had 27 Festival winners, 15 for JP McManus of which five have been hurdlers, can he be the sixth?
If on Thursday, Petit Tonnerre is not declared for Sandown, then my focus will immediately be diverted to Making Headway a wonderfully willing five-year-old who showed his worth at Newbury last time.
He had previously run in the Formby Novices Hurdle, Grade 1 at Aintree, which has worked out really well. He’d also finished runner-up in a Grade 2 at Haydock earlier in the season to Kamsinas.
At Newbury last time out, the ground was heavy, yet Henry Brooke decided to go from the front, and at the end it appeared as though he had plenty more to give, his ears were flicking approaching the finishing line.
It’s not easy to make all over hurdles in a competitive handicap, let alone at Sandown, but seeing as though it's hard to know where his improvement is going to end, I sense that he is value for a few more pounds yet.
His rating might prevent him from getting in either the Coral Cup or the Martin Pipe at the Festival, so I can understand why he has an entry for Sandown.
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have only had two previous Sandown runners, so that is significant in itself, and Making Headway might well be a viable alternative here or part of an exotic forecast with Petit Tonnerre.
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