Which League Will Have The Closest Title Race?

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Which League Will Have The Closest Title Race?

The Premier League season is poised for one of the most dramatic finales in its history.

Arsenal (3), Liverpool (1) and Manchester City (7) have all won the league before and all three have their sights set on adding to their totals.

Manchester City are favourites with football betting sites, even though they are currently third, a point behind their rivals.

The average lead at the top of the four other major leagues in Europe is 10.75, so the Premier League is the one which should have the closest finish. 

But it’s not the only league in the UK that's poised to have a dramatic finish. There is a very good chance the Championship, League Two and the SPFL titles go down to the final round of games also. 

We’ve applied hypothetical odds to determine which league could have the closest finish.

Closest Title Race Odds

LeagueOdds
Probability
Premier League4/9
69.3%
League Two5/4
44.4%
Championship7/5
41.7%
Scottish Premiership5/2
28.6%
League One4/1
20%

Could We See Another Aguero Climax?

The current Premier League season is a reminder why it is the most-watched league in the world.

Seven times in the 32-year history of the Premier League, the title has been decided by a single point or less. 

The only time goal difference has been used to determine the champions was in 2012, when Manchester City pipped neighbours United to the title thanks to a certain injury-time goal by Sergio Aguero in a 3-2 win at home to Queens Park Rangers.

The last time the title race was decided by a single point was a couple of seasons ago, when City landed the title with a total of 93 points, with Liverpool once again cursing their luck at finishing a point behind.

It was the second time in four seasons Jurgen Klopp’s side finished a point shy of Pep Guardiola’s champions. 

After Klopp announced he would be standing down as Liverpool manager at the end of this season, will the stars align for the German to bow out a champion in May? 

Or could City become the first team to win the Premier League four seasons in a row?

EPL Outright Winner 2023-24
Best Odds
Teams Best Odds
Manchester City
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15/8Spreadex
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Min Stake: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 100 Extra Spins on Gold Blitz (£0.10 per spin) credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. No wagering requirements on extra spin winnings. Debit Card deposit only (exclusions apply). This offer is valid 7 days from the new account being registered. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. Bet the Responsible Way. Full terms apply.
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Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.
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18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10  on any football market at minimum 1/1 odds. No cash out. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit card / Apple Pay payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. begambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly
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New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
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£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins
Visit Site
Min Stake: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 100 Extra Spins on Gold Blitz (£0.10 per spin) credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. No wagering requirements on extra spin winnings. Debit Card deposit only (exclusions apply). This offer is valid 7 days from the new account being registered. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. Bet the Responsible Way. Full terms apply.

Or will Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal show they have learned from last season’s collapse, when they let slip an eight-point advantage with 10 games to play?

The Gunners go into the final international break of the season top of the table on goal difference from Liverpool, with City a point further back in third place.

We have the Premier League as the 4/9 favourites to have the closest title race.

Three Battling It Out For Automatic Promotion

The race to win automatic promotion to the Premier League looks set to go to the wire, with three teams in a fight to avoid the lottery of the playoffs. 

Leicester have spent the majority of the season at the top of the Championship, and at one stage looked to have the title wrapped up. 

However, an 11-point lead has been whittled down to three with nine left to play. Leeds know that a second-place finish will see them go up automatically, but the Whites have their sights set on the title. 

If either side suffers a loss of form, Ipswich will hope to capitalise, and make it back-to-back promotions after finishing second in last season's League One. 

The Tractor Boys are a point behind Leeds and five clear of Southampton, who have played a game fewer.

For Leicester, Leeds and Southampton, promotion would mark an immediate return to the top flight, while Ipswich are looking to return to the Premier League after a 22-year absence. 

Statistically, Leeds have the more favourable run-in, followed by Leicester, who are favourites to win the Championship, and then Ipswich. 

Southampton have the toughest remaining fixtures with trips to the top three to come before the season ends.

If you think the promotion race in the Championship is thrilling, the battle to avoid relegation is even more intense. 

As things stand, seven teams are separated by just three points from Plymouth in 17th place to Sheffield Wednesday in 23rd. 

Basement-side Rotherham are 20 points from safety with nine matches to play, so they look likely to play in League One next season.

All To Play For In League Two

Football fans who don’t pay much attention to the leagues below the Premier League are missing out. 

For football followers in League Two, this is what they call proper football, and they have a proper title race to look forward to over the closing weeks of the season.

The fourth tier of English football largely went unnoticed for a long time, but Wrexham’s promotion at the end of last season after a nine-month battle with Notts County, has shone a light on the league.

Both teams smashed through the 100-point barrier last season, with Phil Parkinson’s side finishing on 111 points, four more than the Magpies. 

And Wrexham are in the mix to win a second title in two seasons. The Welsh side are currently third, level on points with Stockport and two points behind leaders Mansfield, who are slight favourites on betting apps

Stockport have stumbled in recent weeks, winning just one of their last six games, and they will hope to cash in on their game in hand to win the title.

All three should secure automatic promotion, but there will surely be more twists and turns between now and the end of the season. 

Old Firm Battle To Go To The Final Game?

Dramatic title races aren’t just confined to England and there is a tremendous battle brewing north of the border. 

The Old Firm have dominated the Scottish Premier League since the 1984/85 season, when Sir Alex Ferguson's Aberdeen were the last team other than Rangers or Celtic to win the title. 

So it’s no surprise to see the Glasgow giants sit first and second in the table with nine games to play.

UK betting sites have Rangers as favourites for the title, given their two-point lead over Celtic, who have been crowned champions in 11 of the last 12 seasons. 

This is the closest title race in Scotland’s top flight since Rangers won the 2010/11 championship by a single point. 

The league is not held with much regard in England, so it could do with a title race going the distance this season and for many seasons to come. 

Rangers have turned a corner since naming Philippe Clement as Michael Beale's successor, and with a two-point advantage, they are in pole position. 

The title could be decided by who comes out on top in the two remaining derbies.

Updated by GDC - Icon - Black - Info

Charlie Mullan

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