AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 22 Best Bets And Betting Trends
The business end of the season is fast approaching.
Whilst the bottom-nine clubs were cast into irrelevance weeks ago by the split down the middle of the ladder, there’s still an intense fight further up not just for the double chance but also the eighth and final spot in September.
A staggering 34 of the last 35 matches between a top-nine and a bottom-nine club went the way of the higher-ranked side, which could make for some great weekend multis this week.
The likes of Geelong, Brisbane and Gold Coast make for some pretty solid favourites this week.
However, we’ve looked deeper into the hundreds of markets offered by the best Australian betting apps for some more analysis and value.
And of course, we’ve done you the duty of searching out the best odds for three popular player picks to hopefully make your weekend a profitable one.
AFL Round 21 Predictions:
- Cats Vs Bombers: Under 180.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
- Demons Vs Dogs: Over 176.5 Points - 1.80 With PlayUp
- Adelaide -60.5 Points - 1.90 With Unibet
Geelong Vs Essendon, Friday 7:40pm AEST
Essendon are unwillingly making a strong case to be the poorest form team of the competition at the minute.
Even though they were able to be competitive on the scoreboard away to the Swans last week, the rain and slippery conditions that followed largely dragged both teams down to their level.
They couldn’t use bad weather as an excuse in weeks before when scoring just 50 against the Bulldogs and 56 against the Giants and therefore Geelong will have to do a lot of heavy lifting as far as the total points market is concerned.
Geelong have certainly done so on the odd occasion, but based on Essendon’s current form are likely going to need to clear a hefty 125+ points to get the total over the line here.
Essendon are the second-worst side in the competition when it comes to total possessions conceded and so, in what is expected to be a lopsided game, you can dive head-first into the possession markets.
Max Holmes has very short odds of about 1.50 to pick up 30+ possessions, as he has done in half of his 14 winning appearances this year, across many AFL betting sites - but you can get a much more tasty 1.70 with Bet365.
Best Bet: Cats Vs Bombers: Under 180.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
Player Prop: Max Holmes 30+ Disposals - 1.70 With Bet365
Melbourne Vs Western Bulldogs, Sunday 3:15pm AEST
We were somewhat surprised to see the total points handicap for the Sunday afternoon game in Melbourne to be lower than that at the SCG considering this game features two teams who are higher on the table when it comes to total points.
The Bulldogs and the Demons are first and fifth respectively for total points per game in 2025, coming in at averages of 187.1 and 171.5 thanks primarily to the Bulldogs’ immense scoring average of 108 points.
The Dees themselves are only half a point below the league average of 84.1 scored per match, and even when losing the Demons have been scoring reasonably healthily such as 90 in the loss to St Kilda and 85 in the loss to the Gold Coast Suns.
There’s certainly no signs of Western Bulldogs pair Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton slowing down and they should be licking their lips against the league’s seventh-worst defence.
Since Darcy’s return in Round 15, Naughton has outscored his teammate 31 goals to 29, and yet he’s second favourite to Darcy in the goalscoring markets.
You can get close to Evens for Naughton to kick 3+ goals for the 13th time this year - a lot better than is offered by many other betting sites - and that looks a very tasty option!
Best Bet: Demons Vs Dogs: Over 176.5 Points - 1.80 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Aaron Naughton 3+ Goals - 1.94 @ Betr
West Coast Vs Adelaide, Sunday 5:10pm AEST
We will be breaking one of our own golden rules this week by taking an away team to clear a line of 10+ goals when the Crows head west looking to maintain, if not extend, their position at the top of the ladder.
Eagles head coach Andrew McQualter has again chopped and changed his unsettled 18 in an increasingly desperate search for their second win of the season.
Adelaide have covered the line in seven of their last eight games against bottom-four opposition, and whilst -60.5 always seems a big ask under any circumstance, it’s worth noting some of the margins they have put up on the worst clubs of this season.
On top of their record-breaking 98-point Showdown demolition of Port Adelaide, there were 60+ point victories against Essendon (61), Richmond (68) and opponents West Coast (66) alone.
Izak Rankine has returned multiple goals in six of his last seven games against teams on a losing streak, and you can get 1.53 - a neat little 50% multi booster - for him to continue that trend here.
Best Bet: Adelaide -60.5 Points - 1.90 With Unibet
Player Prop: Izak Rankine 2+ Goals - 1.53 With Ladbrokes
