AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 23 Best Bets And Betting Trends
A break-even weekend in Round 22 gives regular followers of our AFL column some ammunition for the penultimate round of the home and away season, which has three potentially decisive top-eight battles to enjoy.
A gap of just two wins between first and eighth with two rounds to play means that any of the eight likely finalists are in with a chance of a top-four finish and a double chance in September.
We cannot forget ninth-placed Western Bulldogs, who kept themselves in the hunt last weekend, and now have a soft kill this Sunday - more about that later.
Their fate is not entirely in their hands, but they could be back in the eight by the end of the weekend if the Suns can do them a favour on Sunday.
As always, we have picked out three games and some popular markets from the best Australian betting apps to recommend to you for your weekend investments. Good luck!
AFL Round 23 Predictions:
- Dockers Vs Lions: Tri-Bet - Either Team To Win By Under 15.5 Points - 2.55 With Ladbrokes
- Swans Vs Cats: Over 169.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Bet365
- West Coast +74.5 Points To Beat Western Bulldogs - 1.90 With Picklebet
Fremantle Vs Brisbane, Friday 8:35pm AEST
The second leg of Friday night's double-header could be the most fascinating game of the lot.
The double chance is on the line for both teams who swapped positions last weekend after both were on different ends of nail-biting results.
The Dockers and Lions have played in some tight encounters at Optus Stadium since its opening, with three of the last five matches decided by a margin of 15 points or fewer.
AFL betting apps are forecasting a similarly tight affair this weekend, and they give the Lions a 3.5-point start as they look to improve their 3-1 record as outsiders this season.
Fremantle’s record in the ‘tri-bet’ market: win or lose, 45% of their games this season have been decided by a margin of 15.5 points or fewer, second only to North Melbourne’s 47%.
It could be a solid play if you agree with the bookmakers’ assessment of an 85-81 win to Freo.
Currently on a four-game streak of kicking 3+ goals, Patrick Voss looks to be the goods in the goalscorer markets, especially when you can get close to even money on Unibet just for him to boot two!
Best Bet: Dockers Vs Lions: Tri-Bet - Either Team To Win By Under 15.5 Points - 2.55 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Patrick Voss 2+ Goals - 1.91 With Unibet
Sydney Vs Geelong, Sunday 3:15pm AEST
An interesting total points market has emerged in Sydney, where the SCG often drags down the totals due to its unique dimensions.
However, we believe that the best Australian betting apps may have underestimated the scoring prowess of both teams here when setting a mark of 169.5 total points for a Sunday afternoon fixture set to take place in dry and mild late-winter weather.
Geelong are the second-most prolific scorers in the competition, averaging a hefty 110 points per game, which if met would mean the Swans would barely need to get close to their own average of 83 points to see this total clear comfortably.
The Swans have been doing quite well at the SCG: their previous game (68-54 v Essendon) is a write-off as far as form and averages are concerned, because the dreadful weather that made ball handling immensely difficult.
However, back before that, they put up 84 points against North Melbourne, 94 against Fremantle and 96 in a narrow loss to the Bulldogs.
Only four of the 10 games at the SCG this year touched 170 points or more, but a couple were in horrendous conditions.
Geelong’s immense scoring capability - especially with Patrick Dangerfield back in the pocket - should help get this one over the line.
So too should the in-form Shannon Neale, who in five of his last six games has kicked at least three goals.
The SCG does make big bags difficult, though, so taking the 2+ option at Unibet might not be a bad idea.
Best Bet: Swans Vs Cats: Over 169.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Bet365
Player Prop: Shannon Neale 2+ Goals - 1.64 With Unibet
Western Bulldogs Vs West Coast, Sunday 4:40pm AEST
We paid the price for breaking one of our golden rules of betting last week - taking a line of greater than minus 50 points for an away favourite - and we paid the ultimate price with Adelaide not even coming close to covering -60.5 against the Eagles.
Hopefully we’ll avoid that error again. Australian bookmakers are again anticipating a bloodbath when the Eagles head to Marvel Stadium hoping to avoid embarrassment against the Western Bulldogs.
Yes, the numbers point towards it being ugly. The Bulldogs are the number one scorers in the competition (113.5 points per game), whilst the Eagles are the second-worst (69.2 per game) and are shipping nearly 110 points per match in return.
Further to that, the Dogs were triumphant by 76 points (106-30) the last time these sides met - way back in the first few rounds of 2024.
But anyone who watched just how wasteful and sloppy the Bulldogs were at the MCG last weekend would be reticent to back them in to cover such a big margin, particularly when the Eagles haven’t suffered a 75+ point loss since Round 4 despite playing better sides such as Fremantle, Collingwood and most recently Adelaide.
Nonetheless, there will be goals aplenty from the Bulldogs' forwards and Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton will understandably be popular picks for big bags.
The best prices we could find for either to kick at least four is around 1.70.
Best Bet: West Coast +74.5 Points To Beat Western Bulldogs - 1.90 With Picklebet
Player Prop: Aaron Naughton 4+ Goals - 1.70 With Betr
