AFL Betting Tips 2025: Finals Week 1 Best Bets And Betting Trends
Happy September, punters!
There are plenty of fascinating subplots to play out across the first weekend of finals, where the competition will get narrowed down from eight teams to six.
A heated contest is expected at the Adelaide Oval just a few weeks after Collingwood and Adelaide played out a thrilling contest overshadowed by Izak Rankine’s suspension, which will no doubt come up again in the media discourse leading up to the match.
But it is only the on-field action we are interested in of course, and on that note, here are some of our favourite picks from the best Australian betting sites for the three games on Friday and Saturday, as well as the best odds for player props.
AFL Finals Week 1 Predictions:
- Brisbane To Win Vs Geelong - 2.20 With Picklebet
- GWS To Win Vs Hawthorn - 1.77 With PlayUp
- Fremantle By 1-39 Points Vs Gold Coast - 2.15 With Ladbrokes
Geelong Vs Brisbane, Friday 7:40pm AEST
Only two clubs that defeated Geelong twice this year and the Cats could potentially meet them both in the finals.
One of them is qualifying finals opponents Brisbane, who triumphed by nine points at The Gabba in Round 3 and by 41 at GMHBA Stadium in Round 15.
Brisbane have had the lion’s share of shaky moments in 2025 but have operated at their best with their backs against the wall.
It is worth remembering they lost two of their last three home-and-away matches last year, then picked themselves up off the canvas with an 11-goal second half in the semi-final against GWS and a nine-goal second half in the prelim victory over Geelong.
As a result, they are on a three-game winning streak against the Cats, a five-game winning streak at the MCG and are still rated as underdogs for this match despite regaining the services of Lachie Neale, who was instrumental in last year’s preliminary final win with 31 touches and 12 clearances.
Brisbane covered the pre-game line in each of their last 15 games as outsiders, five of which were this year.
They also have a 4-1 winning record as underdogs in 2025, so we will go one step further and back them to head straight to the prelims with AFL betting apps.
Cameron Rayner is on an outstanding eight-game streak for kicking 2+ goals in away games and has had a strong finish to his season, kicking 2+ in four of his last five matches anywhere.
Best Bet: Brisbane To Win Vs Geelong - 2.20 With Picklebet
Player Prop: Cameron Rayner 2+ Goals - 2.48 With Unibet
GWS Giants Vs Hawthorn, Saturday 3:15pm AEST
The Giants will be playing just their second home final of the 2020s at ENGIE Stadium and finally have the opportunity to exorcise the demons of last year’s aforementioned semi-final against Brisbane, when they lost the almost unlosable.
Hawthorn won by 12 points the last time these teams met, one of their three wins from 10 games against top-eight finishers, but that victory was in Tasmania during what is now the seventh of their ten consecutive wins in Launceston.
It’s the complete opposite up in western Sydney where the Hawks have a stunning 0-8 record, and more recently they bring a bit of shaky form into the finals having lost three of their last four games against fellow finalists.
Their win rate as an away underdog this year is just 25% - in line with the league average of 24%.
GWS have turned to experienced campaigners to prevent another collapse - like last year’s semi or this year’s loss to Hawthorn in Tassie - and will be spurred on by a home crowd against a side that is 4-19 away under Sam Mitchell.
One of those is captain Toby Greene, who in his last eight appearances has booted multiple goals seven times at a goalkicking accuracy of 63%.
That is why he’s always a popular 2+ goal pick with AFL betting apps.
Best Bet: GWS To Win Vs Hawthorn - 1.77 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Toby Greene 2+ Goals - 1.65 With Bet365
Fremantle Vs Gold Coast, Saturday 7:35pm AEST
The final match of the round sees Gold Coast Suns make their long-awaited finals debut, and inaugural draft pick David Swallow shed the unwanted record of most career games (247) without a single final and hand it back to the late Trevor Barker.
Fremantle bring to the table an excellent run of 12 wins from their last 14 matches and an 8-3 home record at Optus Stadium this year, losing only to top-four sides Collingwood and Brisbane as well as Sydney during their slow start to the season.
That 14-game run includes a clutch win over the Suns on the Gold Coast, after which Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir attributed the victory to a mid-season change of attitude from the playing squad.
They have since been playing like genuine finalists, as have their opponents throughout much to be fair, but recent losses to the Giants and Power must have hurt.
Three-quarters of the Dockers’ 16 wins this season fell into the 1-39 point bracket, as did six of the Suns’ eight losses.
If you think the awe of Gold Coast’s finals debut could be overwhelming, you could extract some extra value by backing Fremantle with a 1-39 point margin.
Patrick Voss is another favourite selection with punters in the goals markets after five bags of 3+ goals in his last six games.
The Suns boast the fifth-best defensive record of the season and rain has been forecast for Saturday, so you can still get a good price to take the conservative option of 2+ goals.
Best Bet: Fremantle By 1-39 Points Vs Gold Coast - 2.15 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Patrick Voss 2+ Goals - 1.90 With Unibet
