AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 1 Best Bets And Betting Trends

After Opening Round was scythed in half last week by tropical cyclone Alfred, the 2025 AFL season is now back in full swing with nine matches to take place across four days and four states.

It’s almost an ideal vision of what ‘Opening Round’ should be, right? 

A mouthwatering 2024 Grand Final replay headlines the four-game Saturday program behind the Kayo paywall, whilst shortly thereafter one of the highest profile moves of the summer - Dan Houston - will take on his former employers after missing the Opening Round through suspension.

We can’t wait another moment for things to get underway, so we’ve taken a look at the hundreds of markets across Australian betting sites and are starting with what used to be the traditional ‘season opener’ at the MCG this Thursday evening. 

AFL Round 1 Predictions:

• Richmond +49.5 Points - 1.90 @ PlayUp
• Hawthorn -20.5 Points - 1.90 @ Unibet
• Bulldogs-Kangaroos Over 175.5 Total Points - 1.9 @ Bet365

Richmond Vs Carlton, Thursday 7:30pm AEDT

The most lopsided contest of the weekend, at least accoring to AFL betting apps, sees wooden spoon favourites Richmond attempt to pull off an enormous upset against a side slated for what would be a third consecutive finals appearance. 

Carlton comfortably covered a 39.5 point line in the last matchup (Round 16) when running away after half-time to convert a 12-point lead into a 61-point victory. 

But immediately thereafter they would go on to fail to cover the pre-match line in their last six matches of the season as favourites. 

That saw them lose to GWS, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs - all starting as the favourites - whilst defeating North Melbourne by only 19 points. 

So the question to answer is whether they go into this season 12 points worse than the last time they met Richmond, and the way they fizzled out at the end of 2024 would suggest so, though Richmond may have to debut as many as three draft picks after losing a host of starters in the off-season.

Still, a 50-point handicap is well beyond the 37-point gap between Richmond’s points for (65.4 per game) and points conceded (102.8) from last season, particularly considering the way the Blues ended the year. 

Two-time Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps is always a popular pick in disposals markets and you can get close to double your money on Ladbrokes for him to record 30+ possessions, which he did in six of his last ten games as well as eight of his last ten against the Tigers.

Best Bet: Richmond +49.5 Points - 1.90 @ PlayUp

Player Prop: Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals - 1.94 @ Ladbrokes

Hawthorn Vs Essendon, Friday 7:40pm AEDT

Hawthorn had already attracted some tips to win the Premiership prior to last week when they dismantled runners-up Sydney at the SCG on Friday night. 

They now enjoy joint-favouritism alongside Brisbane to win the flag and are expected to be too good for an Essendon side that lost Dyson Heppell and Jake Stringer during the off-season and had their season disrupted by the postponement of last week’s trip to the Gold Coast.

They didn’t recruit any players with AFL experience during the off-season, instead going all-in on a youthful rebuild with new names such as Archie Roberts and Zach Reid to continue their development.

Essendon are a distant 14th in the Premiership market and, after finishing last season 13th for points scored (82.3 per game), are likely to have a tough time against a continually improving defence. 

We’re tipping a comfortable win for the Hawks and hope that at least two of their goals come from Nick Watson, who finished last year with four consecutive 3+ goal hauls but had an unusually quiet game last week. 

Best Bet: Hawthorn -20.5 Points - 1.90 @ Unibet

Player Prop: Nick Watson 2+ Goals - 2.20 @ Bet365

Western Bulldogs Vs North Melbourne, Saturday 7:35pm AEDT

A severely undermanned Western Bulldogs go into their first fixture of the season with a line that perhaps would be ten or even 15 points wider had they been able to field a full  strength side.

But with no Marcus Bontempelli, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Cody Weightman or Adam Treloar among others, the door is open for the Kangaroos to secure a rare victory. 

Australian betting sites separate the two teams by just 20 points despite them being 11 wins apart on the ladder last year and that’s because the Roos strengthened their side with names such as Luke Parker, Jack Darling and Caleb Daniel.

North Melbourne were the worst defensive side (110 points conceded per game) and third-worst for points scored (70 per game), with the former largely responsible for their matches being the highest scoring of any single team with an average of 181 total points.

That’s well above the over/under mark of about 175.5, which coincidentally four of the last five matches between these sides - all at Marvel Stadium - managed to clear comfortably. 

So the trends are pointing towards the overs, and there’ll be a large responsibility on the shoulders of Aaron Naughton to ensure he sees his team run away with the game early. 

Naughton had a 60% success rate of kicking multiple goals last season, but kicked 3+ on just three occasions, so sticking with 2+ at the shorter quote certainly seems a much wiser addition to your same game multis or otherwise. 

Best Bet: Bulldogs-Kangaroos Over 175.5 Total Points - 1.9 @ Bet365

Player Prop: Aaron Naughton 2+ Goals - 1.50 @ Ladbrokes

(Odds correct at time of publish - 11:30am, 13 March, 2025)