AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 3 Best Bets And Betting Trends

Following our six perfect Round 1 selections, little damage was done to regular followers of our AFL best bets blog after three out of six correct picks last week. This made for a loss of 4.5% based on recommended stakes. 

It means we’re still in a good position heading into an eight-game bonanza that includes the rescheduled opening-round fixture between Brisbane and Geelong at The Gabba. 

We’ll kick things off at Docklands on Friday night, where we expect the Blues’ scoring woes to continue without Harry McKay, and finish things off on Saturday night with a first versus third showdown in Tassie. 

We’ve again taken a look into the hundreds of markets available on the best Australian betting sites to come up with our three best picks for main markets and the best odds available for three favourite player props.

AFL Round 2 Predictions:

• Carlton-Bulldogs under 172.5 points - 1.90 With Playup
• St Kilda -27.5 points - 1.90 With Bet365
• Hawthorn -12.5 points - 1.90 With Betr

Carlton Vs Western Bulldogs, Friday 7:40pm AEDT

Friday night lights will feature a ‘toss of a coin’ contest between Carlton and the Western Bulldogs one week after the Dogs’ admirable narrow loss to Collingwood, where the Magpies’ inaccurate kicking kept them in the contest. 

They were held to just 70 points by a tighter defence, and face a Carlton side that have conceded just 160 points in two games.

When combined with just 129 points, both of their matches fall under the total points handicap.

Their forward line appears lost without McKay, who again has been ruled out this week for personal reasons, adding to our confidence that 172.5 points with betting apps is too high.

Carlton’s last eight matches fell short of that 172.5 point mark, as have three of the Bulldogs' last four.

Charlie Curnow had a very quiet return from injury last week, recording just four kicks and two marks despite playing 80% of the loss to Hawthorn and many punters will be hoping he’s back amongst the goals this week.

In line with our expectations of a low-scoring game, we’ll be taking Curnow to kick just two or more goals despite his streak of three or more goals at Marvel Stadium. 

Some Australian bookmakers are offering as little as 1.28 for this play, but on Ladbrokes, you’ll get a comparatively generous 1.55 for what should be a safe bet.

Best Bet: Carlton-Bulldogs under 172.5 points - 1.90 With Playup

Player Prop: Charlie Curnow 2+ goals - 1.55 With Ladbrokes

St Kilda Vs Richmond, Saturday 4:15pm AEDT

Richmond very quickly came back down to earth in Adelaide last week, reminding their supporters why they’re the favourites with most AFL betting sites to finish last at the end of 2025. 

The Saints were simply outstanding last week against Geelong, a team who are still fourth in the Premiership betting market despite the result. 

They come into this game, not only with five wins from the last six H2Hs, but four winning margins beyond the 27.5 point mark set by the bookies.

There was little in last week’s effort to suggest the Tigers can test that, whilst Round 2 also showed us that Richmond’s victory over Carlton probably told us more about the Blues than it did about the Tigers.

We cost ourselves some profit by taking the conservative option of North Melbourne’s Cam Zurhaar to kick 2+ goals instead of 3+, but we’ll stick with that method when it comes to St Kilda dynamo Jack Higgins.

After he booted four last week and two in his first, Higgins has cleared 2+ goals in 64% of his 22 appearances since the start of last year but went on beyond 3+ in only 23%, which is why it will likely pay off to take the shorter and less visually appealing odds of 1.50 on Betr. 

A short-priced winner is better than a long-priced loser, after all!

Best Bet: St Kilda -27.5 points - 1.90 With Bet365

Player Prop: Jack Higgins 2+ goals - 1.50 With Betr

Hawthorn Vs GWS Giants, Saturday 7:35pm AEDT

New Premiership favourites Hawthorn became the first team of 2025 to cover the main pre-match line three times this year when their 20 scoring shots outscored Carlton’s 20 (12.8 to 8.12).

It lifted their goalkicking accuracy for the season to a handy 60%, with such efficiency leaving them well-placed to get past a GWS side with 50% accuracy. 

The Hawks have made their second home in Launceston into a fortress of sorts, winning seven out of eight matches there since the start of 2023 and covering the pre-match line in all eight. 

That’s why we’re expecting them to do so again against a GWS side that needed a last-minute goal to overcome Melbourne last week, despite starting as -8.5 point favourites.

After a delayed start to 2025, Jesse Hogan will hope to pick up where he left off last year, kicking 3+ goals in all but one of his last ten games of 2024. 

He’ll, therefore, be a very popular favourite in the 3+ goal market, and Unibet is the place to go if that’s a play you fancy for an opportunity to triple your money.

Best Bet: Hawthorn -12.5 points - 1.90 With Betr

Player Prop: Jesse Hogan 3+ goals - 3.00 With Unibet

(Odds correct at time of publish - 11:00am, 27 March, 2025)