AFL Betting Tips Round 10: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch

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AFL Betting Tips Round 10: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch

AFL Round 10 Predictions:

The halfway point of the longest AFL season in history is fast approaching and there have been a couple of significant moves made on the ladder in recent weeks.

Sydney Swans continue to firm in as outright Premiership favourites with AFL betting sites after they extended their record to 8-1 last weekend with a fifth straight win, whilst reigning premiers Collingwood are back in single digits after re-entering the top eight with what was their fifth win in six matches.

The market is still showing a lot of faith in the GWS Giants, who were co-favourites alongside the likes of Geelong and Sydney a month ago, despite three losses from their last four outings, whilst there isn’t yet a great deal of interest in Essendon despite their five-game unbeaten run that included last weekend’s win over GWS.

Betting sites around the country have set some large lines for this weekend, one of which we’re particularly interested in, so without further ado here are our three AFL Round 10 best bets and the best prices available for some popular player props. 

GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

Our first game of interest this week comes from the newly renamed ENGIE Stadium in Sydney’s west, where the GWS Giants make a long-awaited return after the Easter Show break.

They’re on a five-game winning streak against interstate opposition at home and are therefore expected to get a significant boost from their six remaining games at the Showgrounds.

Adam Kingsley’s men have dropped out of the top four after losing three of their last four matches, but all defeats were at opposition venues and their sound home form in recent months should count for something here.

The Bulldogs are in the mix for the eight but have been plagued by inconsistency in 2024, suffering back-to-back defeats immediately after wins in Rounds 3 and 6.

Perhaps most compellingly as far as this fixture is concerned, they’re yet to win as underdogs this season nor against any team starting this round in the top eight (L3).

It will be a contest between the second and third heaviest scoring teams of the competition, but AFL bookmakers have well and truly accounted for that by setting an enormous points total in the 180s.

Midweek market movements suggest punters think that total was a little too high and thus the value has already been snapped up, so we’re instead turning to the 1-39 points market for a GWS home victory.

Star GWS forward Jesse Hogan has been a prolific scorer at the Showgrounds, clearing 4+ goals in four of the Giants’ last five games there for a total of 25.

Even if you opt for the less ambitious option of a 3+ goal haul, you’ll get a great price at Bet365 that is close to even money.

Best Bet: GWS To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.25 @ PlayUp

Player Prop: Jesse Hogan To Kick 3+ Goals - 1.91 @ Bet365

Best Betting Sites

St Kilda v Fremantle, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

It’s not often - or ever - a match-up that would be described as a blockbuster or a marquee fixture, but if the markets set by Australian betting sites are any indication, it promises to be one of the most thrilling.

The line separating these two sides was just 2.5 points shortly before the teams were named, with an eye-catching total points mark of under 150 thanks to matches involving St Kilda this season averaging just 151 points, and Fremantle only 147.

Fremantle go into this game with the league’s second-worst all-time record at Marvel Stadium, but have gone a long way to correcting that in recent years by winning five of their last nine games at the venue, defeating five separate teams along the way, including St Kilda in 2022 (111-70).

Rather than opting to pick a winner in what appears a complete lottery, we believe bookmakers have gone too conservative on the total points, especially as Fremantle put up 95 and 103 points against (Bulldogs and Tigers) lower-ranked clubs prior to last week’s abysmal kicking effort, where they would have scored 60+ had they lived up to their season average.

After a fairly quiet start to a year that has been plagued by regular absences, we’re hoping that St Kilda star Max King has his kicking boots on this weekend and contributes to a bigger score than the bookies are anticipating.

King kicked 3+ goals in four of his last five matches where the Saints were the home side of the day, most recently in their Round 3 win over Collingwood at the MCG.

Best Bet: Over 147.5 Points - 1.9 @ Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Max King To Kick 3+ Goals - 2.25 @ Bet365

West Coast v Melbourne, Sunday, 6:20pm (AEST)

Round 10 winds down with the West Coast Eagles trying to put an end to a three-game winning streak against a club they last beat at an empty Optus Stadium in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

For the third time this season, they were held to a score of fewer than 50 points last weekend, and with those three opponents being Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and GWS, they’re not likely to have an easy time against top-four Melbourne.

Third-last on the ladder for both points scored (68.7 per game) and points conceded (96.4 per game), the Eagles also average a paltry 57 points per loss this season.

They will this time face the second-best defence of the competition, giving Melbourne the opportunity to cover the line without necessarily needing to break the 100-point barrier.

The Demons have the league’s best win rate (70%; 7-3) of all 18 clubs at Optus Stadium thanks to a six-game winning streak with an average margin of 58 points; subsequently, they covered the line in each of the last five.

Our favourite player bet involves Melbourne’s Kysaiah Pickett, who kicked multiple goals in five of his six winning appearances in 2024.

He also averages two goals per game at the venue (14 from seven), lending further weight to the 1.70 offered by Bluebet being a handy price.

Best Bet: Melbourne -30.5 Points - 1.9 @ Unibet

Player Prop: Kysaiah Pickett To Kick 2+ Goals - 1.7 @ BlueBet

Updated by GDC - Icon - Black - Info

Aaron Murphy

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