AFL Betting Tips Round 11: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 11 Predictions:
- Sydney v Carlton Under 165.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
- Melbourne-Fremantle Over 169.5 points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
- Geelong v GWS Over 174.5 points - 2.25 With PlayUp
- Western Bulldogs by 25+ points - 2.75 With Bet365
Each on winning streaks of at least six games, the trio of Collingwood, Brisbane and Port Adelaide are threatening to speed away from the peloton.
Although, Melbourne and Geelong still find themselves highly fancied in the Premiership race on most of the best betting sites.
We shall go around again unharmed after Connor Rozee’s match-winner last week was the difference between another profitable round and the 5% loss our tips sustained.
There are some interesting totals markets in a couple of potentially tight games that form the basis of this week’s best bets. Good punting!
Sydney Swans v Carlton Blues, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
How does one pick apart two struggling sides on four wins apiece that cannot find any consistency to save their own lives?
Carlton edged ahead slightly on AFL betting sites during the week, but this is still anticipated to be one of the closest games of the round.
Sydney Swans (W4 L6) are desperate to give their members something to smile about after losing their last three home games to Fremantle, GWS and Port Adelaide - two of whom join themselves and Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L5) outside the top eight.
Only an embarrassing interchange error from North Melbourne last week prevented Sydney from notching up a fifth consecutive loss as an 11-man injury list that now includes ruckman Peter Ladhams takes its toll.
They’re averaging just 66 points over the last eight weeks and take on a side that are 13th in the league for points scored but seventh for fewest points conceded, so there’s little wonder 60% of their games have fallen short of the total points handicap compared with a league average of 44%.
Amidst the woes of his colleagues Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, one man who has been excelling in front of goal for Carlton is Matthew Owies (G11 B2), and you can get a very generous 5.50 for him to boot three goals for a third time in five appearances.
Tip: Under 165.5 total points - 1.9 With Unibet
Value Play: Matthew Owies 3+ goals - 5.5 With Bet365
Melbourne Demons v Fremantle Dockers, Saturday, 2:10pm (AEST)
The Melbourne Demons (W7 L3) broke our hearts last week when falling at the final hurdle against Port Adelaide, the second time they’ve lost this year at the Adelaide Oval.
We’re willing to forgive them given how tight the margin was and are expecting them to come out and make a statement in response.
A similarly close loss in Brisbane offers a hint as to what might be coming, when they followed that up with a 50-point demolition at home to Sydney in Round 3.
When they’ve been hot, they’ve been red hot! Five of their seven wins this year have fallen in the 40+ margin bracket, though all but one were against clubs starting this round 12th or lower.
Fremantle Dockers (W5 L5) may provide a sterner test off the back of three straight victories, highlighted by the way they pulled apart defending premiers Geelong last weekend.
Led by some outstanding efficiency in front of goal (50 goals from 76 scoring shots in three weeks), the Dockers have racked up 100+ points in each of their five wins across the last eight rounds.
They come to the MCG on the improve, whilst the memories of winning this corresponding fixture at the MCG (94-56) last year, so an upset win at a good price wouldn’t surprise.
But up against the highest scoring team in the league, these sides should be clearing 169.5 points mark set by Ladbrokes* between them comfortably.
* Take note: Alex Neal-Bullen has already registered the opening goal of two of Melbourne’s four home games at the MCG this year!
Tip: Over 169.5 total points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Value Play: Alex Neal-Bullen First Goalscorer - 26.0 With Bluebet
Geelong Cats v GWS Giants, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
With the second-highest score and worst defence of all top-eight clubs heading into the round, there’s little wonder that eight of Geelong Cats’ (W5 L5) 10 games so far have cleared the total points handicap set by Australian betting sites.
They’re under pressure to deliver a big win back in Geelong after falling to Fremantle and Richmond in their last two outings, kicking 11 goals and conceding 16 on both occasions.
The Cats have already racked up four scores of 125-plus in commanding wins against bottom-eight opposition and, when contemplating the manner in which the GWS Giants (W3 L7) lost to Collingwood two starts back, a repeat would not surprise at a ground where Geelong have won nine in-a-row.
Time difference is no match for this news 📞🇮🇪 #WeAreGeelong pic.twitter.com/XhAX8GKtH8— Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) May 25, 2023
GWS have even failed to cover the line in their last nine games against top-eight sides, illustrating just how far away they are this season despite racking up more effective disposals than any team other than St Kilda.
They’re averaging 75 points per loss in 2023 which, combined with Geelong’s high scoring, should push the total score beyond the 174.5 points quoted by our friends at PlayUp.
Sam Simpson booted two goals in each of Geelong’s two games at GMHBA Stadium this year and we don’t mind the price for him to do it again!
Tip: Over 174.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Value Play: Sam Simpson 2+ Goals - 2.7 With Bet365
Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
After they were humiliated by Q-Clash rivals Brisbane last week, Gold Coast Suns (W4 L6) head north-west to the scene of two of their three largest wins of 2022, where they dumped both Hawthorn and North Melbourne by 60-plus points in successive weeks.
It’s hard to even begin imagining them doing the same against a top-eight side, particularly when they’ve lost their last three such encounters by an average margin of more than 30 points.
The Bulldogs are storming their way up the table off the back of seven wins from their last eight games, six of which they covered the main pre-match line.
That’s despite notching up one single 100-plus point score this year, with the team’s third-best defence in the league doing the heavy lifting.
We’re confident that the line with Bet365 is a little too generous in favour of the struggling Suns, particularly with conditions forecasted to be pretty comfortable for the Victorians.
On that basis, we’ve gone chasing a bit more bang for our buck and have backed a 25-plus point winning margin.
Tip: Western Bulldogs By 25+ Points - 2.75 With Bet365
Value Play: Jack Lukosius First Goalscorer - 14.0 With PlayUp
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