AFL Tips 2025: Round 17 Best Bets And Betting Trends
Those pesky little mid-season byes are finally behind us and nine-game rounds are back for the run into September, where it appears increasingly likely that 10 if not nine teams are left in the running for the flag.
Round 17 is a curious and rare occurrence of every match featuring a team from the top half of the ladder and one from the bottom half.
That means those clinging onto a desperate hope for finals like Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon are all going to have to beat the odds to keep the flame flickering for another week.
Nine games means plenty of opportunities for wagering with hundreds of markets offered by the best Australian betting sites.
As usual, we have picked out our three most confident picks in addition to finding the greatest value for three popular player market picks.
AFL Round 17 Predictions:
- Hawthorn -18.5 points Vs St Kilda - 1.90 With Ladbrokes
- Swans Vs Dockers: Over 157.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp
- Adelaide -25.5 points Vs Melbourne - 1.90 With Picklebet
St Kilda Vs Hawthorn, Saturday 7:40pm AEST
We’re expecting that to move to 9-2 under the roof on Saturday night, against an opposition that has defeated them in six of the last eight meetings.
The Hawks are five wins ahead of St Kilda and have had some very strong wins against clubs out of finals contention such as North Melbourne (85 points), Melbourne (35), Richmond (65) and West Coast (50) going back to late April.
St Kilda lost six of their last seven matches, many of which were against sides outside the top-eight, and now have more losses (eight) by 16 points or more than any other team in the competition.
The visitors share the league’s second-best record (10-5) with Geelong when it comes to covering the main line, and the way the Saints have been struggling lately, a handicap of 18.5 points seems well out of whack.
There’s also some value to be found in Hawthorn forward Jack Ginnivan returning a 2+ goal haul as he has cleared that threshold in six of his last nine appearances.
On medium-term form, any price better than even money on Australian betting apps looks to be ‘overs’.
Best Bet: Hawthorn -18.5 points Vs St Kilda - 1.90 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Jack Ginnivan 2+ goals - 2.15 @ Unibet
Sydney Vs Fremantle, Sunday 1:10pm AEST
Sydney and Fremantle have both been involved in some terribly ugly and low scoring scraps this year.
However, we feel that AFL betting sites have been a little too conservative when setting the points total for this early afternoon clash.
The Swans and Dockers are 15th (162.8) and 16th (161.5) respectively for total points per game in 2025 but those two averages are well ahead of the 157.5 point mark set for this game at the SCG.
The wet weather that pounded much of New South Wales during the week is set to have subsided by the start of this match, so weather shouldn’t be dragging down the total that has seen six of its seven matches this year produce at least 160 total points.
A low scoring match is to be expected, but with Fremantle’s scoring output improving during their six-game winning streak, this handicap looks too low.
Both teams are below the league average for total disposals per game this year and doing better than the league average for disposals against, so punters need to be a little cautious when playing the disposals markets in this game.
But Fremantle’s Jordan Clark is on a four-game run of 25+ possessions and we’ll be hoping he can extend that to five, with Bet365 offering the best price at time of writing for him to do so.
Best Bet: Swans Vs Dockers: Over 157.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Jordan Clark 2+ goals - 1.65 With Bet365
Adelaide Vs Melbourne, Sunday 3:15pm AEST
In what is expected to be a comfortable weekend for the favourites, the Adelaide Oval hosts a meeting between Melbourne and Adelaide.
Melbourne are currently on a four-game losing streak and are not rated by many as a genuine chance of picking up a fifth consecutive victory over Adelaide.
Adelaide have been amongst the most reliable clubs for favourite backers this year, winning 10 of their 11 games as favourites and losing all four as the underdogs.
Similarly to how we’ll be following Hawthorn’s trend of covering the line more often than not, we’re expecting Adelaide to become the first club of the 2025 season to cover it for a 12th time.
They’re on a six-game streak when it comes to covering the line in day games, but perhaps more importantly Melbourne have already lost by 25+ points to Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Hawthorn in recent weeks.
It’s hard to make a case for them away to a Crows outfit with a 7-1 record at Adelaide Oval this season.
Demons forward Bayley Fritsch has a great record at the Adelaide Oval, with 29 goals from 15 games, including 2+ goal hauls in each of his last six. Getting better than even money on that basis is too good to pass up.
Best Bet: Adelaide -25.5 points Vs Melbourne - 1.90 With Picklebet
Player Prop: Bayley Fritsch 2+ Goals - 2.10 With Betr
