AFL Betting Tips Round 9: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 9 Predictions:
- Geelong Cats -18.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
- Gold Coast By 40+ points - 3.1 With Bet365
- Brisbane Lions By 1-39 Points - 2.35 With PlayUp
- Carlton v Western Bulldogs: Either Team Under 15.5 Points - 2.55 With Ladbrokes
How about that, readers? Round 8 was the perfect weekend for followers of our best bets, with all four tips saluting at a combined price of 20/1!
Betting sites would have taken a hit with eight favourites winning (narrow outsiders Brisbane being the only exception) and there are plenty more skinny prices on display for this week’s program, which is otherwise highlighted by a couple of potential thrillers.
Let’s see if we can keep the ball rolling with another look at what the markets for Round 9 have to offer.
Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats, Friday, 7:20pm (AEDT)
As Carlton found out last week, dishing out an enormous beating to the severely undermanned West Coast Eagles doesn’t guarantee a good performance the following week.
After they ended a five-game losing streak with a demolition of the Eagles, it’s time for Richmond Tigers (W2 D1 L5) to find out if they’re ready to lift.
We suspect that, until they regain Tom Lynch from his fractured foot, they’re going to continue to struggle scoring proficiently.
Richmond’s pre-round position of 15th would not change if the ladder was based solely on points scored, with strong defensive performances in losses to Collingwood and Gold Coast as well as their Round 1 draw keeping their percentage respectable.
After stumbling in the opening three weeks of the season, Chris Scott yet again has Geelong Cats (W5 L3) firing on all cylinders and has propelled them into second favouritism for the Premiership with five consecutive wins.
AFL betting sites have the Cats as 20-point favourites despite them piling on winning margins of more than 25 points in all five straight victories - the most recent three of which were all against clubs higher than Richmond on the table.
The line has almost certainly priced in the absence of Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield, but the Cats won six of their seven games in 2022 without him by an average of 30 points.
First goalscorer could do worse than to back Samson Ryan, who has booted goals in six of his seven games this year, to open his account early.
Tip: Geelong Cats -18.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
Value Play: Samson Ryan First Goalscorer - 15.0 With PlayUp
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns, Friday, 8:40pm (AEST)
Any West Coast Eagles (W1 L7) fan who made the unfortunate mistake of quipping “at least it can’t get any worse” after COVID decimated their squad in 2022 have had a rude awakening in 2023, with a casualty ward that almost resembles The Battle of the Somme writing off yet another campaign.
They fielded 12 players with fewer than 50 AFL games of experience each in a 46-point loss to struggling Richmond, their sixth defeat in 2023 by a 40+ point margin.
Another two could be added to the mix this week if Campbell Chesser and Samo Petrevski-Seton return from injury and suspension respectively.
Enormous wins and the Gold Coast Suns (W3 L5) don’t often go hand in hand, but they have form just two weeks back when brushing aside the similarly hapless North Melbourne by 43 points.
They did the double against West Coast last season - including by 27 points at Optus Stadium in Round 1 - and there’s no doubting this Eagles side is even poorer.
More conservative punters may wish to take the Suns at the line, which they have covered in four of their last five games against the Eagles.
However, with three scores of 85+ in their last four games and an opposition defence conceding 100 points per game, this could be a timely percentage boost.
Tip: Gold Coast by 40+ points - 3.1 With Bet365
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEDT)
Brisbane Lions (W6 L2) remain amongst the four standout Premiership contenders after a fifth consecutive half-time/full-time double last week that left them in fourth place heading into this round.
Purchasing a home game membership has been a very worthwhile buy for Brisbane fans in recent years, particularly in recent weeks when they thrashed Fremantle and were far too good for fellow Premiership hopefuls Collingwood.
Four of their six wins this season have fallen within the 1-39 point band and PlayUp are not expecting them to exceed that threshold this week either when Essendon Bombers (W4 L4) visit the Gabba, 10 months after they pulled off an upset 10-point win away to Brisbane with a very similar line (+22.5 points).
Essendon have found themselves in a form slump after being in the top four alongside Collingwood prior to ANZAC Day.
They’ve been far from dismal when losing, illustrated by the honour of having covered the pre-match line in a league-best seven of eight games.
This will be just their third interstate trip after an impressive Gather Round win over Melbourne and last week’s agonisingly close loss to Port Adelaide, who are behind the Lions only on percentage.
While they’re without midfielder Darcy Parish after he sustained a calf injury at training, it does appear on paper that their biggest losing margin of the season (28 points against Geelong two starts back) is not under threat.
Essendon cult star Sam Draper rarely has two quiet weeks in a row and, after snapping the Bombers’ opening goal in each of their two games prior, could pop up early once again.
Tip: Brisbane Lions By 1-39 Points - 2.35 With PlayUp
Value Play: Sam Draper First Goalscorer - 26.0 With Bet365
Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
Ladbrokes had these two sides neck and neck prior to the release of the teams on Thursday evening local time.
But, the Western Bulldogs (W5 L3) edged ahead as narrow favourites when Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was included in the matchday squad for this crunch fixture under the Marvel Stadium roof. He faces a matchday test after a restricted week at training.
The F-word (‘finals’) was being excitedly muttered around Princes Park in April after the Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L3) bolted out of the traps with a four-game unbeaten run.
However, as identified on these pages a couple of weeks ago, Carlton are yet to get themselves a big scalp in 2023 when considering the timing of their win against Geelong in Round 2.
That’s despite being number one in the league for contested marks and second for effective disposals, though both counts received significant boosts two weeks back against West Coast.
After the Bulldogs started their season with successive 50+ point losses to Melbourne and St Kilda, they can be forgiven for still lamenting a negative percentage despite winning four of their last five fixtures.
It’s the win column that counts the most, though they themselves haven’t claimed a win they can boast about since Brisbane in Round 3, with their last four victories all against teams below them at the start of the round.
The ladder positions, odds, and inconsistent kicking accuracy of both teams points to a close result, so we’re going to sit on the fence here.
Last week’s single goal haul was the first time this season Charlie Curnow did not finish as joint or equal top goalscorer for Carlton, howeverwith three five-plus goal hauls to his name this year as well as bags of five and seven in his last two games against the Bulldogs, he should be as hungry as ever.
Tip: Either Team Under 15.5 Points - 2.55 With Ladbrokes
Value Play: Charlie Curnow 5+ Goals - 4.0 With PlayUp
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