AFL Betting Tips 2025: Preliminary Finals Best Bets And Betting Trends

All roads have led to the MCG, which for the final three games of the 2025 AFL season is anticipating more than 280,000 people to walk through its turnstiles whilst celebrating two very unique but captivating matchups - and possibly a third!

Friday night and Saturday evening will see the two preliminary finals take place where three of the top-four finishers have made it through to the penultimate week following Adelaide’s infamous straight sets defeat. 

Showers of varying intensity are expected in Melbourne on both days which, whilst well short of heavy, could nonetheless contribute to some lower than expected totals. 

After running the rule over some of the best Australian betting sites and their hundreds of markets, we have picked out three selections from each game and found the best odds in the country for each to deliver you the best value possible.

AFL Preliminary Finals Predictions:

• Cats/Hawks Under 165.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
• Hawthorn To Win First Quarter - 2.20 With Ladbrokes
• Jack Gunston 3+ Goals - 2.50 With Unibet
• Pies/Lions Under 162.5 Total Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
• Brisbane To Win & Under 162.5 Total Points - 4.00 With Betr
• Jaspa Fletcher 20+ Disposals - 1.65 With Bet365

Geelong Vs Hawthorn, Friday 7:40pm AEST

Between the time that the Cats and Hawks dominated the Premiership cycle with a combined seven of the nine flags won between 2007 and 2015, it was almost a guarantee that a match between these two sides was going to be tight. 

That was again the case earlier this year when the Cats won by seven points after establishing a 23-point lead during the second quarter.

This time around it would not be a surprise to see the Hawks, who were far too good for the Crows in Adelaide last week, gain an early advantage after taking a quarter-time lead into nine of their last 11 matches including each of the last seven.

Geelong have been similarly imperious starters, leading at the first change in seven of their last nine matches, but against some much weaker opposition along the way. 

They tore Brisbane to shreds from the outset in their qualifying final but are unlikely to have it their way against a side that has not conceded more than three first quarter goals since losing to Collingwood in late May.

That is why backing the Hawks to lead at quarter time as outsiders could be of some value.

For the total points market, we will be following the trend that has seen Hawthorn’s last nine matches at the MCG fail to clear the total points handicap. 

Considering Hawthorn scored an average of 162 points per game this year, under 165.5 with the potential for showers is appealing.

Jeremy Cameron and Jack Gunston are understandably the two most popular picks amongst the endless goalscorer markets offered by AFL betting apps and both are in outstanding form. 

The best value to be found for either of them to kick at least three goals comes from Ladbrokes’ quote for Gunston, who scored 3+ goals in seven of his last eight matches and 2.2 against Brisbane in the other. 

Best Bet: Cats/Hawks Under 165.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet

Best Value: Hawthorn To Win First Quarter - 2.20 With Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Jack Gunston 3+ Goals - 2.50 With Unibet

Collingwood Vs Brisbane, Saturday 5:15pm AEST

Speaking of Brisbane, they’re carrying a line of just +5.5 points into a rematch of last year’s Grand Final after redeeming themselves with a dominant Q-Clash semi-final display. 

Chris Fagan’s men rarely put two bad performances together and certainly made us look silly last week with the 53-point margin that has condemned their qualifying final aberration to history.

The Lions appear to play their best footy with their backs against the wall and the critics amassing, such as last season’s run to the premiership when they had been written off in the second half of the campaign, this year they hold an excellent 4-1 record as betting outsiders.

Recent history could even repeat itself here with Brisbane following up their previous Q-Clash with a commanding 27-point win over the Magpies at the MCG. 

You could combine a Brisbane victory in a Same Game Multi on your favourite AFL betting sites with our strongest pick for this week, which is for this game to also fall under the total points handicap of 162.5. 

70% of Collingwood’s games have finished ‘unders’ this season, including eight of their last eight, as have 65% of those involving the Lions throughout the year.

Our player prop selection this week goes not to the goalscorers but to the disposal markets, where we have identified a great price on Bet365 compared with the rest of the country. 

For a man who has cleared 20+ disposals in nine consecutive games, Jaspa Fletcher at 1.65 to do so again is an excellent price and one we think you should take.

Best Bet: Pies/Lions Under 162.5 Total Points - 1.90 With PlayUp

Same Game Multi: Brisbane To Win & Under 162.5 Total Points - 4.00 With Betr

Player Prop: Jaspa Fletcher 20+ Disposals - 1.65 With Bet365