Handicap Betting Explained: Top Markets & Strategies
Handicap betting is a valuable tool for punters to find additional value, particularly in sports like football and rugby, where mismatches are common.
It allows bookmakers to even up the odds between two teams that are not evenly matched by applying a points or goals deficit to the favourite and giving the underdog a head-start.
This can make otherwise unappealing odds more interesting and provide a different angle on a particular match.
What Is Handicap Betting?
In handicap betting, the stronger team (favourite) is given a virtual deficit, and the weaker team (underdog) is given a virtual lead before the game starts.
Popular Handicap Betting Markets
Online bookmakers offer a variety of handicap betting markets, which may sometimes be called “Asian Handicap” markets, although the underlying principle remains the same.
- Asian Handicap: This market eliminates the possibility of a draw, leaving only two betting options: a win for either the home or away team after the handicap is applied.
- 3-Way Handicap: Unlike Asian Handicap, it is a three-way market, meaning you can also bet on the “Draw” after the handicap has been applied, and there is no money-back option for any selection.
- Alternative Handicap: This allows bettors to set their handicap line. If you believe a strong favourite will win by an even larger margin, you can increase the handicap to lengthen the odds, or choose a safer option with shorter odds.
- Winning Margin: In this market, you predict the winning team and the precise difference in goals or points between the two teams.
- Half-Time Handicap: This works exactly like a normal handicap bet, but it is based on the score at half-time instead of the full-time result.
- Handicap Accumulator Bets: Handicap accumulators combine selections, allowing customers to choose between needing a decisive winner or having a money-back option. Handicapped accas can offer returns similar to traditional accas but with fewer selections.
Savvy Handicap Betting Strategies
Monitor Squad Rotation
Football and rugby managers can change their starting lineups, and bookmakers may not adjust their handicap lines to reflect the rotations. This presents an opportunity to back the underdog on the handicap if you anticipate the new squad will underperform.
Study Lower Leagues
Oddsmakers may not have precise information or take as many bets on less-popular leagues. This can lead to miscalculations in handicap odds. You might find value prices by researching lesser-known competitions.
Exploit Half-Time Handicap Market
Teams often either start strong or end strong. Compare a team's first-half scoring statistics to the second half to find value on handicaps. Consider managers' approaches, too; some set up cautiously and push later, while others press early and defend a lead.
Back Favourites with Alternative Handicaps
While backing heavy favourites outright often yields short odds, handicap betting makes it more appealing. If you're confident a favourite will win by a large margin, use the alternative handicap options to find a more comfortable line with better odds.
Develop a Forecast System
Analyze recent scoring form and the results of previous meetings between teams to decide if the handicap offers value. Calculate your expected margin and compare it with the bookie's set handicap, relying on analysis rather than emotion.
Don’t Forget about the Bench
The leading team might introduce replacements early in matches with a clear favorite. If there's a significant drop in quality between the starting players and those on the bench, the underdog might have a better chance of covering their side of the handicap.
Predict Winning Margins
The handicap the bookmaker sets can be a valuable indicator of the expected winning margin. For example, if the bookie sets the handicap at +/-8 points, it might be profitable to bet on the favourite to win by 6-10 points in the winning margin market.
Focus on Points Scored & Conceded in Rugby
Instead of relying on individual scorer markets, looking at the total points scored and conceded per game is helpful. This can help spot teams that are closer in strength than their form suggests, providing opportunities for underdogs.
Identify Mismatches
In uneven matches, handicap betting allows for two approaches. You can use a heavy handicap for the favoured team to get decent odds or back underdogs with a lower handicap for higher prices.
Why It Pays to Live Bet on Handicaps
In-play handicap betting can be highly effective. Watch the game and track real-time statistics to inform your live bets.
Keep the pre-game handicap line in mind as the match progresses. Bookmakers may overreact to early action, creating opportunities to place bets based on initial pre-match predictions once the game has settled or shifted.
You can also hedge your bets when betting live. If an alternative handicap bet you placed before the game looks promising, you can put a counter-bet on an adjusted in-play line to balance your position or consider an early cash-out offer.
Many bookmakers see more bets placed on In-Play Handicap Markets than the traditional 1X2 markets, especially if an early lead by the favourite makes the match less competitive. This allows you to back a strong favourite with a larger handicap or an underdog to keep the score tight.
