NBA Playoffs Betting Tips, Strategies & Trends to Consider

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NBA Playoffs Betting Tips, Strategies & Trends to Consider

Betting on the NBA during the regular season can be a lot of fun, but the real excitement starts when the NBA playoffs tip off.

Basketball bettors have never had so many potential wagering opportunities with more teams in the mix. There’s no time like the present for players to experiment with a new NBA playoff betting system.

Note: The NBA (National Basketball Association) is the premier men’s professional basketball league in the United States and one of the most popular sports leagues globally. All examples use U.S. dollars, but the principles apply regardless of your local currency. Odds, if included, would appear in American format (e.g., +200), though most betting sites allow you to toggle between decimal and fractional formats.

Betting the NBA Play-In: What You Need to Know

Before you test your NBA playoff strategy, you should know how the tournament format has changed since 2020.

Twenty teams now qualify for the NBA postseason, with the top six in each conference earning a direct playoff spot. Teams ranked 7th–10th enter the Play-In Tournament: 7 vs. 8 decides the final 7th seed, while nine vs. 10 is single elimination. The winner of the single-elimination game then faces the loser of the other match to determine the 8th seed. Once the Play-In round is complete, the traditional 16-team playoff bracket begins as usual.

For sports bettors, the Play-In adds an extra layer of volatility. When betting on these games, keep an eye on motivation, injuries, and momentum, as these factors often outweigh seeding.

NBA Playoff Brackets: How NBA Playoffs Work

The first round of the NBA playoffs will have the first-place team in both conferences going up against the loser of the Play-In finals. The second-placed team will face the winner of the Play-Ins.

Then, the third-placed team will take on the sixth-placed team, while the fourth-placed team will play against the fifth-placed team.

In the next round, the highest remaining seed will play the lowest remaining seed, and the middle seeds will clash.

In each Conference Finals, the top remaining seed will hold the home-court advantage. Then, it will all come down to two teams battling it out for the big prize in the NBA Finals.

The team with the best regular-season record will host the opener and have the home-court advantage. If the teams have the same record, the tiebreaker is the team that won the regular-season series between the two.

NBA Playoffs Betting Tips

Do Your Homework

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Don’t be Afraid to Bet on Underdogs

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Take Advantage of Bonuses & Promotions

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Wager at a Site that Offers Live Streaming

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Cashout

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Get the Best Odds

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Bet Responsibly

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NBA Playoff Betting Trends to Consider

Consider a few NBA playoff betting trends that have emerged over the past few years. They shouldn’t be the only factors you look at but can help you find useful patterns in team performance.

Pay Attention to Favorites

Favorites have been money when they have had a chance to end a series. In the 2025 Conference Finals, favorites aiming to close out a series when favored by more than 4.5 points achieved an impressive 11–2 SU and 10–3 ATS record (76.9% cover rate).

Between 2008 and 2017, excluding Game 7s in which both teams can close out, favorites were 118-58 straight up (SU) and 98-77 against the spread (ATS) in closeout games. Road favorites looking to end a series went 39-13 SU and a stunning 36-16 ATS. These statistics challenge the myth of home dogs being a good bet in the playoffs.

On the flip side, home favorites trying to clinch a series win went a lopsided 53-14 SU. However, they were only 35-32 ATS. In the 2025 Conference Finals, teams attempting to close out a series in Game 6 struggled, going just 5–10 SU and 6–9 ATS (40% cover rate) in their last 15 opportunities, including 1–5 SU and ATS as favorites.

Back Home Favorites in Games 1, 5, and 7

The first, fifth, and seventh games are the most important to win in a seven-game series.

Winning Game 1 gives a team an early lead. Between 2008 and 2017, home favorites recorded 89-34 SU and 71-52 ATS. Since 2015, home favorites with lines of 5.5 points or less have improved, going 20–9 SU and 17–12 ATS (58.6%).

In Game 5, the series will be 3-1 or tied 2-2. Between 2008 and 2017, home favorites were profitable in Game 5s when the series was tied. They were an astonishing 45-10 SU and a money-making 34-21 ATS. Historically, teams winning Game 5 in a 2-2 series have advanced 82% of the time.

It’s winner-take-all in Game 7. Home favorites in Game 7s went 25-8 SU and 19-14 ATS.

What should all of this tell you? Think about betting on favorites in Games 1, 5, and 7, especially when they are at home and especially when they are in a closeout situation.

NBA Playoff Betting Takeaway: NBA Bettors are in for a Wild Ride

The start of the NBA playoffs is a great time for basketball bettors to test their betting strategies. It also presents a prime opportunity to try new online NBA sportsbooks and get in on some fantastic welcome bonuses, reload bonuses, and ongoing promotions.

With incentives like bonus bets, putting your wagering innovations into practice won’t cost you anything if you fail. Profit boosts and enhanced odds offers also go a long way toward making your NBA playoff betting more profitable.

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