How to Bet on NFL Awards Futures
If you're interested in NFL betting, you've scoured every preview available. You've read playbooks and listened to podcasts, but you still can't decide whether to back a heavy favorite or that outsider you have your eye on because they underperformed their DVOA last season.
If that's proved too much on top of your NFL Fantasy draft, consider placing a futures bet in the NFL player markets.
Several futures bets are available, ranging from MVP to Rookie of the Year awards. We're here to help you understand the trends to watch for when looking at individual awards.
Notes:
- This article focuses on the NFL (National Football League), the premier professional American football league in the United States.
- DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is an advanced metric for evaluating team and player performance.
NFL MVP Betting
There is no shortage of star NFL players who make the game look easy. If you are a fan but don’t have a favorite team to follow, NFL MVP betting is a market to consider. You’ll find them in the Futures section of NFL betting sites.
The MVP odds are at their most profitable during the preseason because they shorten after every game where the leading candidates perform well. However, the MVP race can be just as thrilling during the regular season, as the market fluctuates from game to game.
The MVP award is voted on after the regular season and before the playoffs, although it is not officially announced until the eve of the Super Bowl. Most players do not win the MVP and the Super Bowl in the same season. In 2022, Patrick Mahomes became the first player since Kurt Warner in 1999 to win both.
NFL MVP Betting Tip: It’s a quarterback-driven award. There hasn’t been a non-QB to win since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. The last non-skill player to win this award was Giants’ linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who won in 1986 after recording 20.5 sacks.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting
Gone are the days when the best offensive rookies were made to bide their time before becoming starters. The professionalism in the college game means that the step up to the pro game is not as drastic as it once was, with similar schemes deployed at both levels.
A team with great rookie quarterback talent usually had a poor season the year before. Therefore, throwing them in the deep end is often the best option.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Tip: Consider each player's draft position when betting on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. First-round picks, specifically big names, always get more chances to play earlier in the year. That allows them to accumulate statistics and become better candidates.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting
Defensive rookies are more likely to impact the game quicker than their offensive counterparts. Their playbooks are considerably smaller and simpler to learn than those of a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver.
Any defender's goal at the line of scrimmage is to get to the quarterback or to stop the run. It's great to watch a top-quality defender do their job; occasionally, a defender who settles into the pro game easily comes along.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting Tip: Of the 22 DROY winners between 2002 and 2024, 20 are first-round draft picks. The only non-first-round picks to win the award in that time frame were DeMeco Ryans and Darius Leonard, who were top-40 selections.
Offensive Player of the Year Betting
The league hands out another award for the league’s most outstanding offensive player. While the NFL MVP has also won this award in the past, there's been a shift in the award's market, meaning there's value in betting on a non-QB.
Only two players have won the "double" since 2016: Patrick Mahomes, who won everything in sight for his phenomenal 2018 season, and Matt Ryan, who led the Falcons to their second Super Bowl appearance.
Offensive Player of the Year Betting Tip: While it's challenging to differentiate between these awards, note what kind of players win this particular honor. Every AP Offensive Player of the Year since 2010 came from a team that won at least 11 games. Not too often will a non-playoff player win this award.
Defensive Player of the Year Betting
The Defensive Player of the Year award is handed out to the league’s top defender, an award recently dominated by pass rushers. Pass rushers do well with this award as they can have the most impact on a game-to-game basis. Their stats are easier to read than those of other defensive positions.
Defensive backs are only considered if they create many turnovers and consistently demonstrate lockdown coverage while playing for a playoff-bound team, like Patrick Surtain II in 2024 and Stephon Gilmore in 2019.
Defensive Player of the Year Betting Tip: Similar to the Offensive Player of the Year award, this honor rarely tends to go to a player whose team doesn't make the playoffs. (It’s only happened four times since 2000.) Check out each team's playoff picture before betting on the Defensive Player of the Year award.
Final Thoughts on NFL Honors Betting
Successful awards betting starts with sound research—focus on player performance and team success to spot value before the market catches on.
Do your research before betting on NFL awards. The award winner will likely come from a successful team.
If a player has a great season, but his team finishes at the bottom of their division, then his achievements will likely go unrewarded. If a rookie made significant contributions on a team that makes the playoffs a year after missing them, he’ll likely be in Rookie of the Year conversations.
Remember that injuries will play a part in all NFL markets during the season. A preseason bet on one player could turn sour if the chosen player suffers a season-ending injury.
