How to Bet on Outdoor NHL Games: Trends to Consider
Not all NHL games are created equal, and your betting strategy should reflect that. The uber-popular outdoor series games bring unpredictable conditions.
How do you bet on an NHL outdoor game? It’s more complicated than looking at the NHL power rankings and picking the best teams.
Since the NHL started playing games outdoors again in 2003, with the Heritage Classic in Edmonton between the Oilers and Montreal Canadiens, 43 contests have been waged through the 2024-25 season.
While you can never tell what will happen, we have some trends to keep in mind and advice to guide you if you’re considering checking out NHL betting sites and placing a wager on any league-sponsored outdoor games.
Here are our top tips:
No. 1: Road Teams Have Dominated
Road teams won 14 of the first 19 outdoor games, although that trend has cooled recently. It's tough to say precisely why road teams fare so well, but I’ll venture one theory: Distractions for the home team.
In games like these, home team players are burdened with playing on ice sheets in an unfamiliar building and dealing with many ticket requests from family and friends. Ask any player who has been to a big playoff series, and they’ll tell you they are often driven batty by the constant distractions over ticket requests for such big games.
Road teams don’t have to deal with that, and I think it helps them go out there and have one mission: win the game. Home teams want to put on a big show for everyone, and that can mean players try to do too much.
No. 2: Consider Betting the Over and the ‘Goals’ Market
From 2016 to 2018, the over hit in 6 of 10 outdoor games (6-3-1), suggesting value in betting goals when teams featured shaky goaltending or high-powered offenses.
But that trend hasn’t held steady—from 2018 onward, the over/under record has been an even 7-7-1. So while offensive matchups still matter, recent outdoor games haven’t leaned heavily one way, making it smart to evaluate conditions, lineups, and goalie form before diving into the goal market.
Remember to take it with a grain of salt.
No. 3: Watch Team Trends
The Flyers lost their first three outdoor attempts in 2012, 2016, and 2017. The Chicago Blackhawks dropped three of their first four. The New York Rangers have maintained a perfect 5-0 record in outdoor games through 2024.
One stat to watch in particular is average age. If you’re betting on one player to withstand the elements better, who do you go with: the younger or older team? While not a proven science, younger guys probably have an edge over the older guys in demanding outdoor conditions that include minus temperatures, high winds, and more complex ice surfaces (or even slushy if the weather is warmer).
No. 4: Does Home-Ice Advantage Exist Outdoors?
In 2014, Toronto played Detroit in Ann Arbor, Michigan. In 2018, Washington and Toronto squared off in Annapolis, Maryland.
It’s more of an advantage when the home team has that full-throated roar of the crazy die-hards in attendance. In these outdoor games, it’s more of a social day for everyone. That can help the road team.
