Soccer Betting Strategy Guide
Online soccer betting isn't easy, but adopting the right approach can give you the best chance of success. Eliminating the house edge as much as possible is crucial.
Casual gamblers should avoid common mistakes to beat online sportsbooks consistently.
Speciality Soccer Betting Markets
Top Scorer
Pick the player who will score the most goals throughout the match. The winner nearly always plays for a top-six, and usually a top-four, team. This makes sense, as the best teams typically have the best forwards who score the most goals.
Look at previous years' form, and pay attention to players likely to be on penalty duties, as these can account for several goals. It's worth watching the first few weeks of a season to understand which players are in the best form. You might notice a team getting a difficult run of fixtures, causing their forwards' Top Scorer prices to drift.
This could be an opportunity to pick up longer odds if you anticipate a scoring run later in the season when fixtures become easier. It's common to see big-priced players emerge as contenders in League Top Scorer betting, so it pays to look outside the favorites and identify someone who can put a scoring run together.
These markets are usually listed under “Outright Betting.” Once found, you can scan the list of players and bet on your chosen top scorer. While classically an ante-post market, Top Goalscorer betting markets are generally available week-to-week.
If your Top Scorer selection gets a long-term injury, that long-term bet is over.
Each Way Top Scorer
Typically, the two types of top scorer markets are “To Win” and “Each Way.”
With the first, you will only win if your selected player scores more goals than any other player in the competition.
"Each Way" requires two stakes: one on the win market and one on the place market. Soccer betting sites typically offer place terms of ¼ odds for the first four places. If your player wins, you get paid on both the win and place parts of your bet. Each-way betting is only worth it if the odds are correct; it makes less sense for a player at 2/1 odds than one at 16/1.
Other Types of Soccer Bets
- 1X2: You can bet on the 1x2 market with a strong idea of the winner.
- Total Goals: Betting on the Total Goals market is an excellent alternative betting market when you don’t have a strong hunch regarding which team might win the game.
- Both Teams to Score: For potentially high-scoring matches, consider Both Teams to Score Over 2.5 Goals or even Over 3.5 Goals.
Popular Soccer Leagues & Competitions to Bet on
- Major Leagues: Premier League, MLS, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Serie A
- International Competitions: World Cup
- Domestic Competitions: MLS Cup, Champions League, Europa League, EFL Championship, FA Cup
Trends to Consider When Betting on Women’s Soccer
You will generally find the same type of match markets for women’s soccer as men’s; each game lasts 90 minutes, has the same number of players, and follows the same rules.
While there are similarities to men's soccer, it helps to spot subtle differences when betting. It pays to treat this as a distinct sport from the men’s game to stand a greater chance of making a profit.
Possession
You often see the ball in transition a lot more during a game, and it’s certainly worth looking at teams that are more capable of keeping possession. Identifying the side most likely to control the game can unlock the answer to finding the right bet.
Favorites & Mismatches
Mismatches are common in domestic leagues and major tournaments. Leading nations have invested resources to elevate their teams' technical level, typically featuring competitive domestic leagues. This puts them at an advantage.
Therefore, it can often be advantageous to side with a favorite on the win market, Asian handicap market, or within parlays.Total Goals
The standard over/under goals line might be 2.5 in men's soccer. However, the Total Goals Line tends to differ for women’s soccer; it’s more common for games to be high-scoring, especially in major tournaments, with the line often being 3.5 or even 4.5 Goals.
Some bookmakers offer Alternative Total Goals, allowing you to choose the line. It's not uncommon for 7+ goals to be scored in one-sided women's soccer matches.Live Betting
Within minutes of watching a women’s match, you can establish how each team will likely set up and their tactics. One team may look to play on the counter or profit from set pieces, leading to a compact shape.
For prominent competitions, in-play betting markets are often numerous, and there is frequently an opportunity to cash out with selected markets.Lack of Data
A significant issue for online sportsbooks is the lack of extensive data on women’s soccer compared to men’s. Bettors can use this to their advantage by mining information and quotes from managers to understand what type of game to expect.
Soccer Betting Strategies & Tips
Target Less Popular Leagues
Soccer can be tricky to profit from because the information available to bookmakers is constantly growing, making it virtually impossible to have more details on major soccer leagues than the bookies.
Sportsbooks’ primary goal is to generate profit. If 90% of bets are on the Premier League, bookmakers ensure those odds are in their favor and liabilities are managed. Consequently, there is less focus on some of the other soccer leagues they cover. Due to the scarcity of information, most firms tend to copy each other with their prices for less popular competitions, and this is where an edge can come from.
This means that to profit, the smart bettor sometimes needs to turn their attention to less high-profile soccer leagues. You can develop an advantage over a bookmaker if you have strong knowledge of a particular soccer league. While odds for major leagues like the English Premier League tend to be precise, research in more minor leagues can provide an edge in pre-event betting. The hard work often pays off.
Do Not Discount Home-Field Advantage
In any soccer league, most teams accrue more home points than away points, indicating that home advantage is a definite concept. This advantage can be accentuated or decreased by factors such as a hostile atmosphere at a team's ground, the size and undulations of the pitch, long traveling distances for away teams in larger countries, and even altitude differences.
Stay Disciplined
Any professional sports gambler or poker player will emphasize the importance of always being disciplined. Ideally, you should have a nominated bankroll for a given week of soccer betting and a staking plan based on how strong your view is regarding a soccer team winning.
You must accept that there will be losing days with your soccer betting, and it is imperative not to chase your losses if a few bets go wrong. You don't want to turn a bad day's betting into a terrible day when there's an opportunity to bounce back later.
If you trust your judgment and have succeeded initially, continue with that policy even if you encounter short-term losses.
Do Research
Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. You cannot expect to beat a team of oddsmakers if you blindly bet on each soccer match without proper research.
You should only bet on a soccer match where you've built up some knowledge. You should understand the league well and how each team has been faring in recent games. Ideally, you will have even seen the sides in recent action, as nothing replaces the "eye test" for understanding performance.
When looking at a particular betting price, it's imperative that you feel the odds are too big in your favor, meaning they might not accurately reflect the likelihood of that eventuality happening.
While there's nothing wrong with listening to the opinions of different bettors, especially those you respect, it makes sense to formulate your thoughts on soccer matches and then judge them against what else is being said regarding a game.
Having a firm conviction about a soccer match can be satisfying, and finding that a "betting expert" shares your viewpoint. However, remember that some ex-players and pundits take a lazy slant on games and would lose money if they backed every selection over time.
Track Bets to Limit Your Losses
Note the bets you place daily or weekly, including the stake, type of betting market, the odds, and the outcome of each wager. After placing several bets, review the information to see if you are more successful with a particular type of bet. A betting strategy might need fine-tuning initially.
The aim is to profit as much as possible from your winning selections and ensure losing bets have an element of damage limitation. The more work you put in, the greater the chance of enjoying a return.
Access Data
For many serious bettors, team news is the most critical information ahead of a soccer match. If you can get ahead of the curve with team news for a particular game or league, you can bet at a higher price before the bookmaker receives the latest information and adjusts their odds accordingly.
Find reliable sources of information for the league in question. Numerous soccer websites provide free data on virtually every league worldwide, allowing you to drill down into data related to specific players or information like Expected Goals and Shots on Target.
However, it’s important not to spread yourself too thin; if you place several profitable bets on a specific league, the bookmaker might start limiting your stake size or change their odds to prevent further value bets.
