2022 Tour de France Odds: 3 Long Shot Betting Tips
This year marks the 109th edition of the Tour de France and Copenhagen hosts the grand départ on Friday with a 13.2km time trial. The peloton will cover 3328km over three weeks, concluding with the famous Champs-Élysées finish on July 24.
The parcours covers two time trials, six flat stages, six hilly stages, six mountain stages and a controversial cobbled stage on July 6.
ASO’s attempts to include a “mini Paris-Roubaix” has not pleased riders hunting the general classification. Several cycling betting sites provide great value, offering odds on outright markets, daily stage winners and head to heads, among other options.
Tadej Pogačar is going for a hat-trick of yellow jerseys after winning in 2020 and 2021. The 23-year-old, riding for UAE Team Emirates, seems destined to win several maillot jaunes and the outright Tour de France rightly has Pogačar odds-on favourite to win again.
His main rivals ride for Jumbo-Visma – fellow Slovenian Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard. Both riders have finished runner-up to Pogačar in the past. In 2020 Roglič lost his yellow jersey on the penultimate time trial after leading since stage nine.
Roglič was 57 seconds ahead of Pogačar before the time trial before losing the lead. Pogačar won his first yellow jersey by 59 seconds.
Then, in 2021, Pogačar grabbed his second in mind-blowing fashion over Vingegaard by 5:20. He hammered his rivals during the first mountain stages of that tour. The abandonment of Roglič from crashes and injuries benefitted Pogačar but this was the start of Vingegaard’s breakthrough.
Jumbo-Visma is now joint-favourites in the Team Classification betting after a dominant performance at the Critérium du Dauphiné – won by Roglič.
However, Vingegaard made the bigger impression, winning stage eight. He believes he has a good chance of winning the General Classification and since dropping Pogačar on stage 11 on Mont Ventoux last year his confidence and development has skyrocketed.
It is hard to tell who would be the strongest between Roglič and Vingegaard – many betting sites have them close second favourites in their Tour de France odds but if you can find a head-to-head market between these two riders, Vingegaard would be the value pick.
Roglič is now 32 and there are questions on whether he can cope over three weeks against Pogačar. Vingegaard is still inexperienced but could be the team’s attacker. How will Pogačar cope against a more attacking Jumbo-Visma?
The shining light for Pogačar will likely be stage 20 – the 40.7km time trial with an uphill finish. When others are tired, Pogačar will be the strongest and most difficult to beat since he has a stronger team nowadays.
Canada's Best Chance
Michael Woods, pictured, is at the top of the list for Canada's best hope at 371.00. Woods finished fifth in the 2020 Olympics.
He won the 2019 Milano-Torino and won a stage in the 2018 and 2020 Vuelta a España.
Eyes On Former Winners
INEOS Grenadiers, the fellow joint-favourites in the Team Classification, have 2018 winner Geraint Thomas. The team would love to dominate again after wins from Chris Froome, Bradley Wiggins and Egan Bernal but the latter is injured and they may struggle against the Slovenians.
Thomas won the Tour de Suisse but it was a COVID-ravaged race – including the DNS of Bora-hansgrohe’s Aleksandr Vlasov before stage six.
Vlasov won the previous stage and led the race before his positive test. The Tour de France betting odds make Vlasov an interesting each-way poke.
His price has shortened since the Spring (when triple-figure odds were available) because his form has been consistent all year, but the Russian’s odds to win the Tour de France are still inviting at a best price of 19.00 with Sports Interaction.
The team won the Giro d’Italia with Jai Hindley so they will be bullish over Vlasov’s chances of the podium. Recent illness is a worry but there are no negative signs coming out of the camp.
Several cycling apps offer markets on the Points Classification, King of the Mountains and Best Young Rider. For the Green Jersey (Points Classification), Wout Van Aert is the likely winner at 1.57 in the TDF odds – this is a major goal for last year’s winner on the Champs-Élysées after sacrificing himself for his team in 2021.
Van Aert won the Points Classification at Paris-Nice and Critérium du Dauphiné and with doubts over which sprinters survive over three weeks, the Belgian will be consistently strong.
The Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) has been gained by Pogačar in the last two editions, but take a chance on more breakaway success in stages this year. The French love this jersey – look for Romain Bardet 8.50, Warren Barguil 36.00 or, if you don't mind shorter odds, favourite Thibaut Pinot 4.50.
Team DSM is targeting stages and Bardet will be one of the favourites from breakaways over tougher parcours. Barguil won this jersey in 2017 (second in 2018). With two victories so far in 2022, he is heading in the right direction.
Pinot is back after injuries and confidence doubts. Groupama-FDJ has taken the pressure off and allowed Pinot to ride for stages. If David Gaudu suffers an early GC setback, turn to Pinot for wins and a potential KOM hunt.
In the betting odds for the Tour de France, Bardet and Barguil provide more value than Pinot as whether he can be trusted to survive is up in the air.
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