Betting Analysis and Predictions for NHL Games, April 7
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Thursday night drops in with a large 10-game slate. There is a little extra on the Ontario sports betting landscape tonight as both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators are in action.
With a little more than three weeks left in the regular season, the intensity only rises from here. First off, let’s look at the Senators.
Nashville Predators vs. Ottawa Senators
The Nashville Predators just played the Ottawa Senators last week and won 4-1. However, the score may not have indicated the level of play from Ottawa. This game was closer than it appeared.
Since that loss, Ottawa has won three straight. Two were against the lowly Detroit Red Wings (who upset the Winnipeg Jets last night) and one against the Montreal Canadiens. Ottawa’s surge in their offense was noticeable as well. They scored 16 goals in those wins.
Again, where is the value here on Thursday night?
Ottawa has an almost identical record at home and on the road this season. There are a few reasons for that.
First, the Senators have problems scoring in the third period. In 33 games, the Senators have managed just 19 goals during the final stanza. They have double the amount of goals on the road during the same span.
Now, why is that? Partly, it is a bit of a head-scratcher. Scoring chances are at about the same level. However, this is a young team. Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris are two of the bell-weather players on this team. Nashville and goaltender Juuse Saros expect to have their hands full this time around.
Also, the moneyline is ranging from 2.40 to 2.60 here for Ottawa. That makes them a significant underdog.
The Over is staying at 6 for now. That is important with Nashville coming into town. Eight of the previous 10 games have seen the Over connect. Even Ottawa has seen it hit five times but the team number is more like seven.
This one trend to mention is the moneyline is backing up a bit across the board. Ontario betting wagers are going to notice this right away.
It is why taking a shot at the moneyline for a tiny pittance, looking at the Josh Norris point and goal props and the team Overs for each team are worth a longer glance.
Let’s look ahead to Toronto and then leave with Montreal before closing up shop.
Toronto Maple Leafs on the road in Dallas
As many have said, the contrast in styles between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Dallas Stars is palpable. So, what happened in their first meeting of the season in Toronto? Chaos.
Toronto did win that game 4-0. What gets lost in the shuffle is that the two teams combined for 75 shots on goal.
The big difference between that matchup and this one is this. Auston Matthews is in the lineup. The top goal-scoring player (54 goals this season) will stress the Dallas defense heavily.
Dallas has its full complement of defensemen, including Miro Heiskanen, who is healthy after a bout with mononucleosis.
The trap for Toronto wagerers is this. Dallas home moneylines are all at plus-money currently. Those Stars are hovering close to 2.20 to 2.25 on said moneyline. That places Toronto in perhaps a different direction.
How does Toronto bounce back from what happened in Florida the other night? That is the final question. The expectation is that they will keep scoring.
The value lies in point prop bets here with Toronto and the anytime goal prop for Matthews (nearly even).
One last thing is that Over. Toronto has seen 21 of the last 27 road games hit on said Over. On to Montreal…
Montreal Canadiens battle to get out of league basement
When it comes to wagering online, bets run toward some bad teams.
What if the matchup is one of the worst games of the week? That is the case on Thursday night as the Montreal Canadiens head to Newark to face the New Jersey Devils.
Both teams started looking at the 2022-23 season around Christmas. New Jersey does not have much health while Montreal is on pace to smash past 700 man-games lost to injury, which leads the league.
The Devils do not have their best player in Jack Hughes. Hughes has a low-grade sprained MCL which shut him down for the balance of the regular season.
That injury throws a wrecking ball into laying money on the Over here.
It can be contemplated but perhaps for the Montreal team Over. At just 2.5 goals, that could give bettors a better chance of making back some dollars.
New Jersey gives up three goals like clockwork. They have allowed 3.65 goals per game since Jan 1. Their goaltending and poor defensive play have buoyed players like Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki.
Picking simple areas to exploit is easier to utilize some modest small-unit bets on Thursday night.
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