Betting Analysis and Predictions for NHL Games, April 9-10
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There are only three weekends left in the NHL regular season. Saturday takes the spotlight this time around so let’s get to it.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
The records never matter when these two teams meet. Now, the Toronto Maple Leafs opened up as a huge favorite on the moneyline (4.4 on FanDuel).
Ontario online sports betting will take note of this one. The Hockey Night In Canada game will always be the marquis play.
What many forget is that Montreal won the last meeting in Montreal 4-2. The Canadiens are 12-10-4 under Martin St. Louis and expect to see Jake Allen see a ton of shot volume.
He saw 37 shots against New Jersey on Thursday (that made 11 straight games of 30 or more shots faced). By the way, Auston Matthews had 12 shots and a whopping 15 scoring chances by himself from Toronto.
Again, it is all about propping things up a bit.
Montreal’s numbers again have improved under the coaching of St. Louis. The Canadiens are still allowing more than 3.5 goals per game but they are scoring more than three goals per contest.
This is where season ranks get a bit skewed when it comes to sports betting. Normally a team like the Canadiens would be limping to the end. This is a team that is charging. Toronto will have a test.
Toronto comes in with a chance to get to 100 points with a win. Catching Florida seems unlikely with this few games left (six points behind).
However, again, there are ways to move around the numbers a little. Toronto will be a bit more attractive for a win in regulation type of bet. That is if one does not feel comfortable with that puckline.
So, the usual prop bets are out there.
Matthews will be even money on the goal scoring prop once more. Looking to Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield point props again can be an option.
Montreal can keep this game close. Right now, its goaltending is more stable than, say, Jack Campbell, who is struggling for Toronto still.
If one took a fractional wager on the Montreal moneyline, that would not be outrageous (could stay up near 4.5 or lengthen further).
Ontario betting wagers should expect heavy betting on the Toronto side of the ledger with a 73% implied chance of winning (that will go higher). Again, diversify the numbers a bit. Look toward team Overs, shot props, and even an odds boost if they are available.
Let’s look at a few other Canadian teams on this Saturday slate.
Connor McDavid and Edmonton Entertain Colorado
Betting in hockey sometimes takes a rare backseat to one of those matchups that push the envelope. That is the case on Saturday as Colorado heads to Edmonton, fresh off a game vs. the Winnipeg Jets.
There lies a degree of uncertainty to this tilt. Does Leon Draisaitl rebound? The good news is he did play on Thursday in Los Angeles had three shots on goal and four scoring chances. He did look better as the game went on.
Even though Colorado is playing on the second game of a back-to-back, expect the numbers to be closer to even (the Avalanche are the best team in the NHL). Even with the McDavid-Draisaitl duo at home, books have loved Colorado all year.
Something fun to look at is the Hart Trophy push here. Draisaitl is more of a long shot now around 10 to as much as 20.
Even McDavid is a second favourite at around 4 or 5. Matthews has taken over on Canadian online betting sites (1.5 to 1.8 range). Things like this and making the playoffs motivate McDavid, especially.
Rounding Up Calgary and Even Vancouver
When it comes to NHL betting, there is a time when tendencies just keep repeating. One of them involves the play of the Calgary Flames.
They are markedly consistent, led by their top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk.
Calgary plays a Seattle team that does not allow a lot of shots but will allow quality chances in abundance.
Naturally, Calgary tends to wear down opponents with the depth in the rest of their lineup. It does not hurt that they can lean on the goaltending of Jacob Markstrom as well.
The thought process is to lean more toward point props and perhaps sneaking in a game or third-period puckline for the Flames.
As for Vancouver, it plays a San Jose team that packed it in this week with the “stepping down” of Doug Wilson.
San Jose was a squad that had made the playoffs in 14 of his 18 years as General Manager.
The Sharks will be game but have lost five straight contests while Vancouver has won back-to-back games.
Now, Vancouver has a faint pulse when it comes to making the playoffs but should be a reasonable option on the moneyline Saturday.
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