Betting Analysis and Predictions: New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto plays host to the New Jersey Devils tonight at 7:05 p.m. ET in a battle of Eastern Conference foes.
New Jersey is expected to have Nico Daws between the pipes and Toronto will counter with Erik Källgren in net.
The Maple Leafs need a win in this game to help improve their playoff seeding as the regular season begins to wind down. The Leafs are in third place in the Atlantic Division while the Devils have long since forgotten about any playoff inspiration sitting in eighth in the Metropolitan Division.
The Leafs are tied with the Boston Bruins for sixth with 83 points in the Eastern Conference and trail third place NY Rangers by two points in a very closely contested race to the playoffs.
The Devils are 13th of the 16 teams in the Eastern Conference with 51 points.
The Maple Leafs opened as a -375 moneyline favourite. The total is 6.5 goals with Under bets paying greater vig and possibly at six goals, but with the Over bet requiring a -120 premium to bet.
How The Matchup Breaks Down
New Jersey played the New York Rangers last night. Losing record teams playing on back-to-back nights does not provide a cheery locker room atmosphere, but the New Jersey will be getting priced far more cheaply than fair value. This where the opportunity lies.
Taking New Jersey and the +2.5-puck line and digging through the data we learn that this is a good bet.
Toronto is 3-6 against the spread or puck line when facing a team with a losing record in the second half of this season. Toronto is also a money-burning 18-20 against the spread, but has lost 21 units per unit wagered when facing struggling teams that are allowing three or more-goals per game in the second half of each of the past three seasons.
A Highly Profitable Betting System
New Jersey has been involved with four consecutive matches in which eight or more goals were scored.
In fact, they were coming off three consecutive losses by the final score of 6-3 in each one of them before beating the Rangers 7-4 on Wednesday.
This NHL Total betting system has played the Under and produced a a 70-46 record for 60% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.
The requirements are to bet the Under with any team that is allowing 2.85 or more goals per game on the season and is coming off three consecutive games in which eight or more goals were scored.
Although I do lean toward taking New Jersey and the +2.5 Puck Line, I prefer the Under 6.5 goals bet.
